Member Info for KumKuat

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262860/uk-brent-crude-oil-price-changes-since-1976/

Looks like Crude still moving north at $76.38 and 2021 average back to 2018 levels.

They’ve had 7 years of failure on the deep program to date. That’s probably a little unfair as Covid has played a part so let’s say 6 years. Not failure in finding oil but pointless finding it if you can’t flow it commercially. They know the challenge is heat and pressure and the importance of preventing a blow out. Obviously not easy but hopefully our Shin has changed his approach this time to avoid the loss of tons of drilling fluid into the fractured structure. Maybe SBFs are being used this time as Halibut has intimated but I thought that would increase the chance of the dreaded blow out , I suppose we get to see this week.

I’m hoping to see no loss of drilling fluids but that’s probably unlikely.

We’ll hopefully know this week but no more BS

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/332187476_A_Review_of_Mud_Loss_While_Drilling_through_Naturally_Fractured_Reservoirs

The mud recirculates and if they’re having to recover it they’re overbalanced and blockage time again. I’m hoping that Shin is using a different approach as if we’re using the same Barite mud, how are they going to achieve a different result. Loss of drilling fluids will block the fractures and fissures and hey presto, here we go again !

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344459830_Dynamic_analysis_of_mud_loss_during_overbalanced_drilling_operation_An_experimental_study

The wait is disappointing and suggests that our Clive is waiting for positives to offset a poor 153 result probably. The strategic/financial update was very positive with cash flow improve the as a result of 154 and sustained Crude prices above $70 allowing them to accelerate operational activity.

We don’t know what news is coming but if there’s material news like another win at 153, we’d know about it. Obviously issues and probably re-drilling it or drilling 144 and waiting result. KO also not done the debt for equity swap which to me also points at disappointment as he’s still taking the interest. I believe it was his last feed at the trough and expecting a positive 153 but didn’t happen.

We all want the sp up and we’re all impatient to see it but it will come. The shallows alone give us growth and the likelihood of barge rental is high, just taking time or maybe that’s as a result of it being a sale agreement rather than a charter ?

A8, probably nothing to say yet and SY, licence award and 3AB probably the same. Assets haven’t disappeared and it’s taking time to realise the value.

They’re in a miles better place now as a profitable OE company with cash to execute their operational schedule without dilution, that’s a good place to be.

Everyone will get frustrated with delays but there is plenty of value in the pot and they have the money to exploit it and we just have to wait. If sp drops as a result of next news , providing it’s not a disaster, it will be another huge buy opp for those with funds to take advantage.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/bitcoin-btc-miners-who-flocked-to-kazakhstan-now-see-zero-potential

Now this is a crazy world !!

Clive alluded to the proposed divi plans in the strategic/financial update. Firstly the shareholder meeting to agree the capital reduction required and secondly in Clive’s summary below. The divi payments are expected to lead to more interest in company stock. It’s an AIM stock, that’s not what I’m here for BUT is there a plan for the bigger players to divest to allow institutional involvement ? It will assist with future fundraising especially if they are successful on the deeps. The funding for the FDP and all the infrastructure will be huge. I’m not here for Divis but maybe there’s another game being played ?

‘The intention to clear the way for the commencement of dividend payments is expected to lead to an increase in the interest in the Group's shares from investors seeking a regular dividend return.’

Somm, £1,000,000 is a nice number but as soon as it gets there, the likelihood is that £2 or£3m a possibility as they’ll be an acquisition target.

6p by April, I flipping hope not. Barge, SY and another good shallow result will take us back to double figures and hype building as deep program continues or was that the deep money pit.

A8, Devonian update and 4 zones and associated hype ? 802 drilling ahead, 3AB ? If it’s 6p it’ll have been a very poor 6 months.

P.s, I or my staff won’t be working from home. Most are fed up with the incessant cycle and it’ll destroy many businesses especially without furlough support and funding. Many can function remotely or work hybrid model, many can’t so hoping that this variant is milder and becomes the dominant strain so we can all get on with our lives :)

Sounds like somebody’s been chatting to Cliar.. No more delays, excuses and Carverspeak, let’s be having the positive news we’ve waited over 2 months for.

https://graphics.reuters.com/world-coronavirus-tracker-and-maps/countries-and-territories/kazakhstan/

https://www.accuweather.com/en/kz/tengiz/1686182/december-weather/1686182

The Kazakhs look like they’ve got a good handle on Covid looking at the stats . They can’t vaccinate the population quick enough, second vax let alone the Booster.

As for the weather, temps are higher than historic Dec averages in W Kaz and operations, supplies etc should be in full flow .

Omicron variant is spreading faster in Europe, doubling every 2 days and we can all do the math as to where this is going. Work from home if you can…..lol. Keep the sporting events going, keep the nightclubs open, schools open where the virus is rife, Xmas parties, pubs etc. We don’t know if it’s nastier and we don’t have the full facts re vax defence although Pfizer are shouting that they’re the No1 and let’s have some more boosters. We are going with herd immunity but if Omicron is nastier, there’s no way we’re stopping hospitalisation, deaths. Thankfully early signs are that it’s mild but current measures are laughable to try and break the transmission cycle. Herd immunity and vax like mad and get on with it OR total lockdown, take your pick.

Tomorrow am ? and hopefully no need for the obfuscation translator :)

Oil holding up above $75 as a result of crude draw, improved demand forecast, Iran talks stalling and no excess crude on the market, hopes that Omicron not as damaging as initial expectations although far too early to comment , yada, yada.

Crude has averaged above $75 over the last 6 months so we should see healthy revenues and profitability, buoyed by the 154 result in July. Hopefully 153 is adding to that and SY another 300 bopd. At this juncture Caspian is in the strongest position now than any time since 2007 to exploit the current asset portfolio which is also the largest it's ever been. Every horizontal success at 500bopd ? delivers $10.5m pa at current crude prices. How many wells to be drilled ? 15 inc SY ?

Providing they succeed with the boring stuff at MJF and SY, we all see 2 or 3 bags from here and as stated many times, everything else is upside and the question is when not if.

Hopefully we get to see some positives from next announcement that show that we are moving in the right direction.

Mike,
As one of the posters on ADVFN has highlighted from answers to shareholders questions, updates moved from monthly to quarterly unless there was anything significant to report on. That would suggest that we have no significant material news which we all know is very unlikely with the number of operational activities on the go.

As long as current production is holding up, the cash will be coming in enabling them to conduct operational activities, hopefully the shallow wells at MJF/SY as that’s almost a guaranteed way of increasing the sp. Barge will hopefully add more cash giving them more options but this wait for news is really dragging on and I certainly don’t want to see a Carverspeak special !

Yep CC, we can achieve many bags without flowing a deep but the RKH/GKP type appreciation will come from the company making deeps.

Most of us have seen the flaring video from A5 after the side-track but maybe ODS or others haven't seen it ? Flowing at 3800bopd for c 15 days before getting blocked again. This is why they persist with the deeps , the oil is there, can they solve the pressure/heat conundrum and use drilling mud that doesn't get lost in the structure.

https://twitter.com/caspian_sunrise/status/931457952820711424

Caspian to flow a flipping deep, is that too much to ask after 7 years :(

ODS,

Yep, oil prices will get silly at some point and does that mean that marginal fields like Cambo (or politically too sensitive !) are back on the table or does the divestment, loss of jobs etc make it too difficult to re-engage ? Will increased oil prices mean that there will be re-investment in exploration ? especially in the OPEC+ ,Russia/Kazakhstan etc where they have NO intention of stopping production.

About time our Casper started building that production volume and hopefully Clive's long awaited RNS is not a disappointment, fingers x'd.

All i know is that i'd like Caspian to

So many factors will affect crude but underinvestment will be a biggie down the road, that with the continued environmental pressure. Biden played his cards and the supply/demand games will continue, geopolitical games, Iran etc but the future will be expensive oil which will accelerate the move to green energy.

Toad won’t be installing an electric charging point on the premises for the foreseeable future ;)

Meanwhile Brent above $73 and heading north. Maybe tomorrow would be a good day to release GREAT news .