Member Info for KumKuat

https://www.statista.com/statistics/262860/uk-brent-crude-oil-price-changes-since-1976/

Turnover last 3 years
18 - $10.7
19 - $12.1
20 - $14.3
21 - $35+
22 - $100m+

Caspian current t/over is c$65m and it’ll take a little over 4000bopd to get to $100m with crude @$80. Where is crude going next ? The green agenda is driving money out of the industry and supply will decline, demand won’t, not in the short term. OPEC+ will be Kingmaker and many factors will affect the price but a return to $100 crude is on the cards in the near term.

Great time for Casper to build production. It’ll only take a few horizontal successes to see Casper get to $100m+ turnover and SY is an unknown as to structure potential, might even add to the P1 number.

Everything else is bounce -;

Caspian Explorer options -;
Sell it - $75m+ ?
Charter it - $25m pa
Exchange rental proceeds for % stake in offshore project

If they have enough cash from shallow production, maybe they take option 3 ?

The Deeps
Nothing priced in and they will complete 5th & 6th wells by H1 this year

3AB
As with the barge, they don’t need to sell itheir 85%, maybe another negotiation v taking cash if successful

More territory
This will be another option if the cash builds

Caspian at 5p ? nothing guaranteed BUT this is undervalued and market has got it completely wrong.

Tick, tiock :)

Not a bad finish, 233% up from the Feb low of 1.5p. Where to next ? Loads planned for 2022 with material news due on A8 and CE . 2 deep wells being drilled simultaneously in Q1, A7 probably spudded already. Many shallows to drill, 3AB to start too.

Not many stocks that are real multi-baggers snd limited downside if any BUT this is one.

HNY to all Caspers and wishing us all a VERY prosperous 2022.

As long as it’s one of these :)

https://youtu.be/1RfDwuQ-6K0

CC, if we’re fortunate to get positive initial news on A8, the move north may not be as aggressive as A5 as history has shown that flow tests have failed due to blockages. That would give another buy opp before the hot money lands and as you say, a satisfied barge contract in short order.

Could be poor news on both but I can’t get away from the fact that they would’ve delayed 153/SY news if CE deal and A8 were negative. Could be wrong but this is primed to go pop in a very positive way .

Somm, I had enough but this is a better buy now than at any other time after the latest news .

I maintain that they knew what they had with the initial A8 perforation when they released the last 2 updates. If it was poor I’d have expected them to bury the news with the good stuff.

Also getting a move on with the remaining deeps to satisfy licence commitments but they have 2.5 years to do that as per link below. Already got the casing, spudding A7 now and 802 to follow in short order. Only 4 months to drill so probably have results on both by H1 2022. Why the rush ? especially when they can spend the current additional cash on really accelerating the shallows and maxing out production revenue whist Crude is flying. They could easily delay the spuds and pay small penalties for the delays. Do they have a winner at A8 hence the sudden urgency to complete other 2 deeps and to give themselves more time on the appraisal phase pre expiry in June 24 so that they could add additional wells if all goes well.

Also, new wells are to the Devonian at 5300m TD, not to 5450 a la A8. Does that mean that the additional 50m interval is between 5046 and 5300m ?

All speculation on my part and we’ll know soon enough. A positive A8 tomorrow, followed by the CE charter agreement next Tuesday, that would be a great way to end 2021 and start off with a bang in 2022. I’ll get my coat !!

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/caspian_sunrise/news/rns/story/rm2vv8w

I’ve been helping everyday. 500k more in the pot as regardless of A8 this is a buy. Could you buy cheaper ? maybe but what’s 10% or so when the upside is multiples of that.

Cc, as per my comments on ADVFN, the ducks are being lined up .

What a crazy market. Nearly all trades are buys @4.89p and sells at 4.875p. Never sen it do tight but obviously a seller absorbing the buys.

Anybody buying at this level makes money :)

Maybe the sells are a shorting attempt after a rise to 5.75p ish. Clive, now would be a good time to issue another bit of positive news to make it interesting .

Crude about to go through $80. Omicron initial data is positive and economies will rebound as will demand for oil. What’s not to like about the current Casper opportunity ahead ? absolutely nothing .

The word will get out and sentiment will change. Note players entering the game is always good news regardless of their tenure intentions.

I’m obviously reading a different script. C$70m t/over that is going to increase rapidly in 2022. 25 year licence on shallows with P1 of c 18mboe ( that may have changed) and possible upside from SY but won’t know until a couple of wells drilled before CPR.

Regardless of anything else in the portfolio, it’s a buy but obviously the current trading is of the sell flavour, true market as tight as hell, 4.9-4.92.

Currently the trend is bearish whereas the fundamentals are positive. If there’s further weakness, only one thing to do :)

ODS,

It’s 100% the right call . Regardless if sp retraces a little, it will bounce. The sellers over the last few days are obviously wagering on a poor A8 and no news on barge, a little lull in activity maybe. Far to risky IMO , especially with fundamentals improving dramatically and additional shallows to come on line in quick succession. Happy to see the selling and churn, all we need now is a little surprise announcement before year end, maybe A8 or barge , a good way to see out 2021 :)

Rhertig, yep, I can’t disagree on both counts . Just got to hope that our Mr Shin continues the winning streak.

Re trading, some good buying but we obviously have a seller as was evident on Thursday/Fri. If sp did retrace, it would feeding time again for some.

Rhertig,

Yep, our Clive and comms. 4 zones over 90m to 5046m and then 3 zones over 140m when they got to 5450m. Good ole Clive but let’s see if the any of the numerous zones flow.

Crude on a Bull run and in touching distance of $80. Casper revenue would be c$67m based on $80 crude, a great time to be issuing positive news on A8.

Time for the Sunrise, let’s hope so.

….lol

Toad’s not a Lambo man. Very humble desires and a little Austin Healey Mk3 for the garage, you can imagine toad with the roof down mowing down cyclists taking up far too much of the roads in the Surrey Hills. Also going to chip up the Porker as it’ll take another 150 bhp but only 2s and will probably become a little unruly but hey, that’s the fun part.

Re stock, I’ve got too many but I still added in the 3.8p range on the first RNS last week, the market missed it and even added more at 5.1 ish as it’s still a cracking buy.

KO clan is all in, Director options deferred, ducks lined up and time for Casper to become the darling of AIM. If A8 did flow, with the other 3 deeps drilled, the pumping will be off the charts, it’ll be on fire. Let’s hope we get the chance to add a little petrol to help it along :)

Great to see crude heading back to test $80 as Lockdown fears subside and maybe the realisation that Omicron could be the beginning of the end to the Pandemic.

Great time to be issuing great news.

CC, you’ve been busy , top of the leaderboard by miles.

A8, it’s going to be interesting sulphur or not.

Bicotender is N Yelemes not Airshagyl but must be A8 as nothing going on at 801. As I remember, 801 was the step out well x km down the road from A5. If there is flaring then it can only be SY or A8 as nowt else going on.

They’ve perforated A8, they must know what they have and news has to be imminent unless they want to test other zones first. Why drill the additional 150m ? Either looking for more zones or establishing the final interval depth ? I still maintain that if it was poor news, they have buried it with the good, same goes for the barge,

If Mr 1m/500k is at it on Wednesday, time to fill ones boots.

Some serious dumping over the last couple of days and Mr 500k is back .Get the sellers out I say, just needs another positive announcement and off we go again, maybe next week, who know

A great finish to 2021 and a 233% sp increase from the low., I’ll take that.

Merry Xmas to all invested, have a great one.

CC, spot on and that’s how I read it.

They style of commentary has changed, by that I mean, get it right first time to avoid misleading the investor base and avoiding the ‘looking foolish’ outcome. 153 was a great example of this, taking their time to get it right. Why not issue the news 2 months ago. Same with A8 and perforated already. They know already and news could come at any time and news on more perforations too follow. They are taking their time and not going off half ****ed.

I took more yesterday and today as this is better value now than at any time since company incorporation. Great to buy at 1.5p but that was fraught with risk, much more than I’d anticipated. Now, we have 3kbopd when SY starts to flow, I’m sure there will be a bit of work to get to get up to speed but we’re now a $60m company, soon to br over $100m just from shallows and the barge could add $20m plus to this. If a deep flows, we know what happens here !!!!

This is not a strong buy it’s an absolute RAVING buy and the market has missed this. I must be on top of the ramping leaderboard by now, surely :)

A8 5m perforation. In previous deep wells commentary, especially on A5, we had weekly updates re core samples taken to identify the 100m horizon in the Carboniferous. This time, they have said nothing, they have cased the well (previous wells this was a problem) and completed drilling without incident. They have identified 3 horizons totalling 140m and have now perforated 5m, this being the final stage to make connection with the reservoir. This is completely different to other wells and they’ve dumbed down all the commentary re wire logging, core samples etc. I know they had issues casing A5 but this time all gone smoothly. Is Shin making his mark ? I believe that they are deliberately not raising expectations as they did at initial discovery at A5 to about setting false expectations. Is A8 actually going to be our first deep well !!

Anyone out of this and trading is taking a risk of missing a spike, not for me, far too risky.

Cmon Clive, a blockbuster A8 followed by CE charter confirmation :)