Member Info for KumKuat

CC, i'd agree re trading, the situation is fluid, can buy in volume now and max sell 500k. There will be buying and selling but this situation is coming to an end as Russian/CSTO involvement increases. The so will bounce and i'm expecting to see the RNS this month to say that production back on line, who knows, may get some more positive news too.

DM summed it up nicely, maybe a time to change the moniker, maybe Captain Capricious/ Flip Flopper or Fickle Fecker.

Each to their own.

TT

Swim with tide...lol, i think you mean with the shark !!

I can't buy more than 250k ? but i can sell 1m @ 3.5p.

Investing/trading, dyor always applies, one throat to choke and no blame. I have an indecent amount of stock, my choice and i believe that Casper will rebound with gusto, that's my choice. I believed that force would prevail and it will, order will return, concessions will be made, western, Islamist infiltration etc will be blamed but life will go on. The situation has already improved as in Nazabayev and family gone, price caps on fuel back in play. There will be concessions on wages, there has to be and there will be inflationary pressure but that's a challenge globally. The large oil companies will probably pay more tax, the govt will have to distribute that wealth but the move to democracy , that's not happening, neither is Kaz going back to Russian rule. Russia have their own problems and they want stability on their borders and the big players in Kaz are largely western and that's not changing anytime soon.

I can't control the geopolitical element but I have to asses the risks. I can look at the the elements i can control and understand and that's the Casper fundamentals. Earnings v capitalisation are almost 1:1, the operational schedule is packed and funded, the recent drilling successes will be emulated on the shallow structures and revenues will continue to increase. Everything else is in for free and we're on the cusp of finding out whether a deep is going to flow. more importantly, is it flowing in the Devonian.

The revolt has added an additional risk element to proceedings but Kaz and all it's inhabitants need oil, they need western cash, not just in oil and they need stability returned to ensure that investment continues. That's my opinion and why i've added more as i believe this is a raving buy but hey, everybody has to make their call.

Yep DM, more sides than a dodecahedron must be related to Donald :)

We all know there are going to be challenges from this situation but Kaz need oil revenues and continued foreign investment. Russia will get a few favours for their involvement in this crisis but the facts remain, Russia had to get involved to avoid this spiralling out of control on their border and creating more unrest in their people who as we know are oppressed.

Govt will need all the money it can get to keep a lid on fuel crisis and foreign investment creates a huge chunk of that.

Tick, tock.

As many have said, many people have died, are dying in this revolt. The riots aren’t over yet and there will be reports to evidence that regardless of news embargo, internet shut down etc but force will win the day and order will be restored. Lots of sorting out to be done post this revolt to avoid it happening again.

Kaz would be lost without foreign investment, to think otherwise is laughable .

https://www.trade.gov/energy-resource-guide-oil-and-gas-kazakhstan

Adrianz,

That’s an even better one than Coffee….lol. KO cut his losses and run, I’ll have a sensible wager with you on that one !!

Lots of unrest to be sorted, actually lots of unrest around the globe with current fuel crisis. Kaz has issues to resolve, that will involve concessions to go some way to appease the population. Oil companies will probably be taxed more, their costs will go up with wage inflation and other promises will be made. Nazabayev and family gone and Tokayev will use that. They’re not going back to Imperial Russia, the Russian populous are oppressed and Tokayev needs foreign investment .

Casper will be back in production soon and heyho, KO hasn’t done a runner.

Keep it going CC. Russian reunification ….lol , absolute bunkum. US companies 33% stake in Kaz oil ventures, Russia 3%. Nazabayev spent years building his empire courting the US to attract the needed investment to move the country away from Imperial Russia,

Don’t leave it to long or you’re going to miss the boat.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/07/kazakhstan-protests-thousands-detained-as-president-says-order-mostly-restored

Since crisis started, Exxon sp up 13%, Shell 6%, Chevron 5%, BP 6%, Crude at $82 and Casper down 30%.

Those who hold stock and not forced to sell, make money here and lots of it. Let’s see what transpires over the next few days.

2p…lol, good luck with that.

Regurgitated news on the web and the military forces are building. Kaz is the jewel on the crown with all its oil riches. First few days are messy BUT the required force will be applied and we’ll see that over the very near future.

Scan read, yep all production. I'd have like to see more detail in the RNS but if there's unrest in the Caspian workforce or from the local inhabitants, i would think it would be difficult to stay out of it ? Key question, how long does disruption last ? I can't see it damaging the large producing fields.

Bitcoin also taking a kicking as a result.

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/01/06/kazakhstans-hashrate-drops-as-internet-blackout-persists-amid-nationwide-protests/

Short term disruption was inevitable. Drilling ? No drilling at shallows so question is, is it affecting daily production ? Only drilling will be A8 and A7 spud or maybe they've started on more horizontals in MJF ?

I believe military support coming from several bordering states.

Very sad that many innocent people will die in these riots. It's a vital question as to why the in country Police and military downed tools. Lots of very unhappy Kazakhs and there will have to be concessions to avoid another round of violence.

The penny is dropping re the sell off being overdone and market now well bid. Can sell 900k @ 3.96p, up to 800k @ 4p, can buy very little at full ask, that was 10 mins ago.

Nothing wrong with selling and many would've done. In hindsight, selling a chunk in the high 4s wouldve been sensible but i'm not sure if that was possible. I saw a 600k trade yesterday @ 4.055p @ 9am ish from someone obviously keen to get out. I'm crap at buying and selling but i am very good at adding !! Averaging down is an art and good luck to those of you who do it.

Nobody really knows what's going on and i used to have a pal who lived in Almaty working in the finance sector but he's not there anymore and he's a Brit so no real intel from the ground.

As always, investing/trading is down to the individual. I see this as a massive opportunity to add more cheaply, others will have sold and buying back maybe, some will have been squeezed out. The old adage applies, DYOR and there's only one person to blame with the investment, any other though process is that of victim mentality in my book.

Good luck to everyone who's invested here, regardless of your strategy, that's your business :)

The 3.922 trades being reported as sells are buys. True market 3.865-3.922 and pretty liquid.

Buys outstripping sells marginally yet we're down 5.4%. Yesterday w were down 25% and lots of leverage could've been squeezed out from Caspian. PIs control the pricing on this stock as the big boys rarely trade it. We were on the cusp of the next move northwards dependant on news but with so much on the go, the trend was very likely to continue. The upside has now got even more attractive and able to buy at levels pre the 153 and SY news announced ? Yep, we have current carnage in the country and the simple question is, do you believe it gets resolved, if so, this is a raving buy.

It'll end up with short term promises and the removal of Nazabayev and his family from public life. The concessions will come as part of the deal and Tokayev will be positioned as the one helping the people.

I added yesterday, prematurely i might add in the 4.3p region but rude not to take more. If you believe the country goes to the dogs or there is risk to the oil industry then it's time to get out. I'm at the opposite end of the spectrum as i believe it gets sorted and life moves on, the only variable is the time it takes to do it.

Those with appetite for risk make money here, simples.

ODS It will not be just Russians and the outcome will probably be ‘old man’ out and concessions made. Inflation already at 9% and wage increases will come as part of deals. Question is, how much force needed and how long will the disruption last.

Crude heading north, Caspian fundamentals strengthening and our m/cap declining. Not without risk BUT this is money for old rope.

Disagree as this will be snuffed out.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/

Maybe Bull, depends what happens with security Bloc participation and the use of force. Tokayev may have to give on wages etc and yep inflationary pressure. Will hardly dent Caspers wage bill and maybe this is a good thing.

Caspian fundamentals improving with crude price above $80.

Kaz needs oil companies to succeed, they need foreign investment and they all lose out if that situation is compromised, it won’t be.

Can sp go lower ? yep in this current crisis and I will be a buyer unless I see real reason not to be.

TT

RNS, I’d say not but I don’t know what that would do. If it’s affecting their oil workers revolting etc then maybe yes but they’re in bonus mode and they’re probably doing very nicely .

Un, re authoritarian states, I was talking about those who tow the Russian line. Much that Kaz has been independent for 30 years, Nazabayev had a good relationship with Putin. As you say, all opposition is decimated and that was largely done under Nazabayev regime although he’s still Chairman of Security Council.

Russia will be building forces on their Southern border with Kaz and there’s no way that this lasts for long. It’s the early hours in Kaz so we will see if Tokayev has managed to get control or whether he’s done a runner. There is no opposition party and no leadership with this revolt so it’s leading to a chaotic situation. Our Putin certainly won’t want this really getting out of hand and he’ll want those former states that tow the line , to maintain that position.

Oil companies will continue to trade, the country needs them to.

Let’s see what transpires over the next few hours .