Member Info for KeithOz

LOL - well spotted. Unfortunately I'm not able to edit, so pls mentally delete the reference to PRD & replace with HE1! Next time, I will finish my coffee before breakfast time posting.

Some folks here must be really keen to get in at a lower price, or maybe are desperate to close out a short in advance of the inevitable operations RNS which will be released either w/c 5th or 12th September. They keep plugging on about a placing, even try to demonstrate credibility by referencing old RNSs. Let me reiterate -
* HE1 is fully funded for a discovery at Tai.
* Drilling & completing one 1500m hole would cost $2 - 3M in a standard rig hire arrangement - PRD has this cash even by the most pessimistic of calculations.
* After the degree of PRD involvement with refurbishing the rig, we clearly have a better arrangement waiting to be announced.
* After discovery & concomitant declaration of commerciality money is no problem. The world & his wife will be queuing up to JV / up front fund offtake agreement / fund by RBL (Reserve Based Lending). Discussions have already taken place.
* Even if there was to be a placing, it would be at a much higher share price, thus less dilution for the same amount of cash.
* I assume HE1 then has unlimited use of this rig going forward to roll out further production bores.

... or alternatively, Ian Stalker and his highly qualified and experienced team know far less than some random anonymous guy who presumably is not very good at selling 2nd hand rugs, so comes on here to earn a few bob for a boiler room.

Omg, I wake up to find that someone has started a FUD thread about a potential placing, and folks start selling out. Let's get a few things straight.

1. Small companies need investment in order to grow, it's part of their very nature.
2. You have to spot whether any money raised is genuinely being used for growth, or whether it is merely to keep the lights on/pay directors overinflated salaries.
3. A placing does increase the number of shares, thus causing dilution BUT it also raises money. You should add the sum raised to the previous market capitalisation, then divide by the number of new shares in order to arrive at the theoretical new share price. Most decrease in sp post-placing is due to sentiment, not a reduction in value.
4. If the cash raised is being used to fund/accelerate growth which otherwise would not have happened, what the hell are you complaining about?
5. There are other ways to raise cash other than a traditional placing.
6. HE1 has written itself out of doing a placing - look at the terms of issue of the up to 200M new shares that were approved at the last AGM. I repeat THERE CAN NOT be a placing without an offer to existing shareholders first. So it might be an underwritten open offer, i.e. if shareholders do not take up the shares, then and only then can they be placed with provisionally prearranged placees.
7. HE1 would get far more money for a given %age of the company after discovery, not before.
8. They are fully funded for the near-certain declaration of discovery at Tai, so any kind of raise will be after.
9. After discovery, financing options not only increase, but become more attractive.
10. Possibility of an outright offer from a 3rd party (my least favourite option).
11. There could be a JV, as has been much discussed.
12. My favourite option - once He has been discovered and there is a clear path to commerciality, there will be a conversion of Prospective Resource to Reserve status. This enables Reserve Based Lending (RBL) a source of funding widely used in the O&G industry. This is a loan, and does not impact number of shares in issue.

If you are a day trader, ignore all the above, and waste your whole day watching a screen in the hope of making ten bob. If you are a long term holder, ask why you are here?
* Do you think that this is the largest known He prospect?
* Do you think that the demand & price for He is going to be stratospheric?
* Do you think that Ian Stalker's track record in growing small resources companies is outstanding?
* Do you agree that the team of top technical specialists & relevant business expertise assembled over the last year can do their jobs?

If you still answer 'yes' to all four, then do what you set out to do - ignore the FUD artists, hold long term.

Rant over, have a lovely weekend. Live long & prosper. K.

In Australia it would be a B*ggery of Ryans, where * is a vowel other than A, E, I or O.

These are really B-I-G targets, with the Central Zone showing very high in-soil traces. As with the other D'kar/Ngwako Pan contacts, the mineralisation concentration appears highest in the limbs of anticlines. The Banana Zone is an eroded anticline, so the crest is missing. Our analogue still has a crest, and sometimes additional mineralised zones are found there also. It should be appreciated that PRD's licences cover the geological extensions of proven mineralised formations.

The previously detailed targets, Morula & Happy, are also very attractive, and I suspect that PRD has been waiting for these results from the LVR tenements before deciding which to drill first, and this has been the primary reason for the awesome foursome meeting in the desert. A great problem to have, choosing between such attractive targets. Those here who have felt justifiably depressed at the apparent lack of progress, now have significant programmes to look forward to over the coming months. As always in exploration, patience is key. I have a lot of comfort that this will be a very different company this time next year.

Good morning, Findme. I agree with you 100% that there are a large number of completely untrustworthy posters on lse, and that a great deal of discretion is required. For this reason, I only bother with four BBs here. The PRD BB is unusual in that there are a number of posters who consistently share useful factual information that can be independently verified, and if they speculate on share price always present detailed calculations. While lse rules prevent disclosure of real identities, these same posters use other related social media whereby their identities, experience and expertise can all be verified. GRH is one of those, and while you clearly do not like his idiosyncratic style, others find it amusing. I was invested in PRD long before I first looked at this BB, and can confirm that GRH's many comments are geologically correct. His projections of PRD worth may look very optimistic, but before criticising, perhaps you should do your own sums and then explain to the board why you believe your conclusions are superior. I note that you have 40 years drilling experience, your knowledge could be of great help to the rest of us - we have geologists, geophysicists, a seismic expert, investment bankers, business development folks and serial successful O&G investors, but as far as I am aware, no one with your expertise.

On the other hand, there are the usual FUDders, who appear to exist only to make unsubstantiated and rather general accusations against both PRD management and other BB posters. These people are of course always completely anonymous and untraceable.

I do hope that you are in the first category of posters rather than the second, and if so, look forward to your helpful contributions. Regards, Keith.

Ford - short answer, after flow test. That might be 30 days if consistent, maybe 90 days. Will be very interesting to see if and when the testing gas actually starts being captured and sold rather than being flared.

Ford - short answer, after flow test. That might be 30 days if consistent, maybe 90 days. Will be very interesting to see if and when the testing gas actually starts being captured and sold rather than being flared.

Well, whatever happened to the predicted Götterdämmerung? Just as well I didn't do as advised - sell up, and but back in cheaper today.

@Trifle & @Dai you are of course both correct, but who gives a monkey's about +/- 0.4p tomorrow or not? I'm interested in the price after 4+ holes have been stuck into MOU-NE, which will be shortly after the CNG sales have started from MOU-Fan.

Updates, accounts, newsletters all up to date. Why are you so concerned with how many shares clients of Hargreaves Lansdowne hold? Or do you get 5p per snipe?

No, you would expect the share price to have fallen already, since there has clearly been very substantial forward selling.. The arithmetical decline is around 0.4p from pre-announcement 7.8p - the sums were given here on the day of the placing RNS if you care to have a look how the calculation is done. The difference between current share price and 7.4p is the result of negative sentiment in anticipation of dilution. With the realisation that PRD is now fully funded for drilling that may start in a few weeks, I would anticipate a gradual rise from here as the negative sentiment evaporates.

Ignoring all the personal sniping, here is some more info that may be of use:

https://hydrocarbons.onhym.com/sites/all/themes/hydrocarbure/images/pdf_onshore/Hydrocarbon%20Exploration%20Opportunities_Onshore.pdf
Skip straight to halfway down p.12 - end p.15. This is a summary of the potential of the Guercif basin by ONHYM, the Moroccan government agency responsible for (among other things) oil & gas.

http://atlas.geo.cornell.edu/people/gomez/publications/aapg00.html
This is a summary of the Gomez study that GRH referred to, read the last sentence.

These two sources give a summary as to why the PRD licences covering the TGB (Taza-Guercif Basin) or Guercif graben are so prospective for hydrocarbons. In a very simplified summary, this is what has happened geologically to make the location unique:

1. The Mediterranean Sea used to be connected to the Atlantic Ocean by a wide Channel called the Rifian Corridor, not by way of the Strait of Gibraltar. Guercif is slap in the middle of the Rifian Corridor.
2. Large amounts (kms thick) of marine sediments, often rich in organic matter, were deposited in the Rifian corridor. Tectonic movements slowly open the Corridor (this is the 'extension' referred to in the technical papers) and a rift valley was formed, with the valley floor bounded by large faults, just as in the East African Rift Valley today. This caused the sediment to sink and allowed even more deposition. This large structure is known as the Guercif Graben - as you have guessed, it is centred on Guercif, in the middle of PRD's licence.
3. The tectonic movements reversed, squashing the African plate up against the European plate. The Rifian Corridor was closed, and the Mediterranean became an isolated inland sea. Much of the water evaporated, leaving behind thick layers of salt (the Messinian Salinity Crisis).
4. The subsidence of the thick sediments caused sufficient increase in temperature and pressure for the contained organic matter to be turned into oil & gas - this zone is 'the kitchen' where the hydrocarbons are 'cooked'. Conditions in the kitchen at different times have been right for formation of both gas & oil.
5. Plenty more stretching and squashing occurred, giving rise to folding and faulting which enabled hydrocarbons to be trapped in the resultant structures. The sandstones and carbonate reefs form reservoirs, with the salt providing both vertical and lateral seals. The Strait of Gibraltar opened, causing the largest known flood in geological history. The Rifian corridor was permanently closed.
6. There are abundant oil and gas seepages across the Guercif graben. Oil was commercially extracted in the 1920's & 30's.
7. PRD are initially drilling near surface structures such as the MOU-fan, which are prospective for gas. Deeper (thus more expensive to drill) targets include the carbonate reefs such as MOU-NE, and the TAGI sands, which elsewhere in North Africa are the principal oil reservoirs.

Those with time to spare and a large flask of strong coffee might care to look up Algoma-type BIFs, which tend to be more constrained than the better-known vast economic BIFs of the Hammersley Range in Australia, or those in Brazil. They are associated with volcanic vents or crustal fissures, and are often coincident with VMSs (Volcanic Massive Sulphides).
Re. the speculation about Carlin-type (finely disseminated) gold in the Ditau core, here's a good starter:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0895981118304255

"Important host rocks for orogenic gold mineralization, BIFs have a composition that favours the replacement of iron bands by sulphides, accompanied by the precipitation of gold. They host gold deposits in many granite-greenstone terrains such as the Slave Craton, Churchill and Superior Provinces of Canada, and in the Amalia-Kraaipan greenstone-granitoid terrane of the Kaapvaal craton, South Africa. In BIF-hosted orogenic gold deposits, hydrothermal magnetite is commonly an important phase, as is the case at the giant Golden Mile deposit, Kalgoorlie." (slightly edited for brevity & clarity).

On 18th May here, I said about the Ditau core "The stripy red stuff is hæmatite, which is an iron ore normally formed from sedimentary deposits - commonly as in Australia's huge banded iron ore deposits, but more rarely from volcanic activity. From its banded appearance, I suspect this is of sedimentary origin, but has been metamorphosed (heated & squashed), which is why the bands are wavy. Next it has been fractured - hæmatite is very hard, but very brittle. This brecciation may have been caused by pressure from a nearby intrusion, such as a carbonatite - for example, Olympic Dam mineralisation is hosted by brecciated granite. Next it has been subjected to probably two injections of hot aqueous fluids - one rich in silicates, giving the milky quartz depositions in the cracks, one rich in iron sulphides, giving the pyrite." and
"this looks a bit like hæmatitic jasperoid. That's a very unusual rock which I think is only found (so far) in the Proterozoic near Lightning Ridge, NSW. It contains finely disseminated gold (Carlin type), mostly within pyrite".

I don't want to be accused of rampant speculation, so perhaps I shouldn't mention that the Algoma-type BIF Cuiabá deposit in Brazil is estimated to contain 160 tonnes if Au. Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

The bargain basement price and a degree of certainty about drilling has brought in lots of new people, including regulars from the HE1 board @No1Plasterer & @Dai2Belts, who became PRD shareholders yesterday, I look forward to their discussions continuing here, rather than us irritating the other HE1 folks. If it all goes pear-shaped for PRD, please don't come over and poison my kangaroos, I've always made it clear you should do your own research.

Trifle's post on Friday at 13.31 contains some useful Reddit links to bring you up to speed. I would add to that the updated Feb 2021CPR, which applies a 75% risk which doesn't actually apply now:
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/01/cpr2022.pdf
and of course the last couple of relevant RNSs;
12th May. https://www.investegate.co.uk/predator-o--38-g-hldgs--prd-/rns/operations-update-and-directorate-changes/202205120700071885L/ and
19th July. https://www.investegate.co.uk/predator-o--38-g-hldgs--prd-/rns/drilling-and-operations-update/202207190700068846S/

Also interesting (and often referred to here) is @GRH's famous Michael Caine (you only had to blow the bloody doors off) post, which was Mar 20 2021, and spells out the financial implications of a CNG operation on the MOU-fan. If this link doesn't work, click on his post history, it's on page 57 (!)
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/grh.../?page=57

All the best, guys.

He went up to Oxford, with the sense of entitlement that goes with it. Read PPE (aka useless waffling), and got a poor 2:2. Everything he has put his hand to has failed miserably, and there is a whole string of allegations of dodgy behaviour throughout his life - have a look at his Wikipedia entry. God knows why anyone would pay good money to read his fact-deplete ramblings. On here all he does is make allegations of possible criminality against PRD management - not a single fact relating to the actual business or geological potential. Why? - of course he doesn't have the slightest understanding of anything to do with O & G exploration, just has a major chip on his shoulder.

Must be excitement about his trip - latest email out to shareholders is half way back to that famous reference to the Kama Sutra Zone.

@Dai - clearly found overpressured gas, but thin strata, poor trap. Next drill is into same strata, but with110m thick, high porosity, high permeability reservoir with 11km² closure. Do the sums! Suggest this conversation is moved to the PRD board, don't want to upset all the heliumaires.

@dai@Troajan: PRD is huge potential gas target initially, oil later. Everything now financed and ready to drill. imho the best risk/reward ratio available today, 6p is a gift entry point, repeat - imho.

re drill rig. SDX 19th November 2021 announcement of start of 2-well drilling campaign states "The Company is utilising the drilling rig that was previously stacked in its yard in Morocco, thereby incurring minimal mobilisation costs." This was the Star Valley 101. It was then announced on 14th December that the campaign was on hold. On re-start at beginning of August there was no mention of the identity of the rig, which is why it is assumed that the same rig is being used.