Member Info for KeithOz

plus side, not plus size !

I did say "this is initial xrf readings, so should be treated with caution". However a good result, just by looking at the two core photos. I have at various times owned holdings in Metal Tiger, MOD, Sandfire & Galileo, all for their KCB licences. All turned a profit - I'm not saying this to boast of my investing expertise, but to underline that there's potentially lots of money to be made in the KCB.

KAV holds a very large licence area, and much of that looks to be highly prospective - big prospects with very good pathfinder mineral shows and proven contacts of D'kar & Ngwako. KAV are spending a lot of time and effort on both geochem & geophys, in order to maximise future drilling cost-effectiveness. However, I suspect that we will need financial help from a partner to move from discovery to JORC resource. Depending on the consistency of mineralisation, 100m drill spacings may be required, and given the size of the prospects that is a lot of holes. On the plus size, RC drilling is relatively cheap, and the necessary depth is fairly shallow.

ASX-listed Cobre more than doubled in price today after announcing hitting significant mineralisation in the Botswana KCB, at the junction of the D'kar formation & the Ngwako Pan. 15m at 1-2% Cu, one bit apparently at 8% - but this is initial xrf readings, so should be treated with caution. Full article with interesting drill core photo:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com.au/companies/news/988810/cobre-shares-jump-86-after-intersecting-outstanding-copper-intersection-at-ngami-project-in-botswana-988810.html

Announcement this morning from Blue Star Helium - they are spudding their first proper well today (they have previously detected 8% He in wells on their licence drilled primarily for water). They have 5 wells approved, 13 going through the approval process, and another 38 in earlier stages. That's correct - 56 wells planned for this year. And the share price? - bumping along the bottom of the 52-week range. That's why there are no party balloons.

The SimplyWallSt piece isn't an article about HE1, it's an advert for their services. They put out these pieces frequently, with identical wording, just the company name and numbers are changed. The idea is to make you feel nervous about investing in companies not generating profit, and follow their links to get a list of their recommended companies, that you can access by (paid) subscription. In short - completely worthless, non-information, imho, of course.

Nothing is better for growth than well-rotted manure.

https://www.geologyforinvestors.com/miac-the-next-big-thing-in-mineral-deposits/

I think you folks should all relax a bit. There is a lot more to this company than our esteemed Mr. Minchin. The board has been considerably expanded this year to include a much wider range of expertise. A lot of detailed exploration work has been done. Behind it all is the eminence grise of Ian Stalker. He takes an active role in the running of the company, and there is no way on earth he is going to let HE1 spoil his extraordinary track record by failing to get a suitable rig this year. imo Tai is already in the bag, just need to suck some gas into a bag & measure it.

There could be two possible reasons for the lack of detailed news - either this is a conscious constipating decision after the Twitter diarrhoea last year, or else there is something larger going on in the background. I would not be at all surprised if a comprehensive RNS is only released in the first few days of September, when all the city folk have returned from their extensive holidaying in Tuscany.

Maybe we have different numbers of fingers on our hands in the southern hemisphere, but I make it 77 days. Even so,
* We don't know when the 60 days started, or even if it didn't start because PRD decided to go a different route.
* We don't know if it was 60 business days.
* DD & negotiation may possibly be done within 60 days, but then add on at least a month getting two boards, advisors & legal folk to agree on the precise wording.
* Most London finance people are on their extended holidays in Tuscany for July / August.
* If they are going the JV route (not now so likely), then we may hear first few days of September.
* If not going the JV route, we may possibly hear earlier, since a simple loan or a placing are easier & faster to arrange.

Or maybe it was all agreed yesterday, and they had too many beers to be able to write an RNS.

At 10m 28s in this video Ben says re fire assay: "We'll have an announcement that will be coming out once we have received the multi-element results as well, because at that point we can talk with confidence about what the system looks like at the I10 target". Seems reasonable to me, fire assay on its own could be difficult to interpret, and could be construed as misleading the market without the full picture.

This piece has been posted before. It concerns a different David Minchin, as you can see from the photo. The section concerning geology & Helium One have been inserted into the wrong biog by a very sloppy researcher.

I found this an interesting article that might help us keep this bulletin board productive & useful. Have a great weekend.

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2022/03/how-to-manage-cyberbullying-internet-trolls/627084/

Bozi: The most important thing is to maximise returns for KAV and shareholders. Before KAV partners up with someone for large scale exploration, it is sensible to prove that there is something worth further investigation - that way you are ensured a better deal.
So stage 1 is to put 6 - 12 holes into the upper level B area targets & the lower IOCG. For this, you do a limited deal with your drilling & geophysics partners - all or part of their costs in exchange for shares. You then know if this is likely to be a viable project.
Stage 2 is a move to sell the whole project to a major, hopefully retaining a meaningful stub equity.

For gaining service partner buy-in for Stage 1, this study is adequate. For Stage 2, proof of mineralisation (drill core) is necessary. Without that, you would be lucky to get just a few £M. Giving away half or more in the sort of intermediate deal you suggest would not be a great idea. Take a look at what Bluejay (LSE:JAY) have done - they basically sold out 51% their huge Disko Greenland NiCuPGE project in exchange for Kobold doing just $15M of target definition & drilling. Had they put in a few $M themselves to prove up the targets they had previously identified, they could have got at least 10x that from a major. Bluejay are frequently criticised for having a poorly performing Board, and despite their interesting projects I would not invest in that company for that simple reason. I reckon that KAV are too smart to fall into the trap of taking cash too soon.

I suspect this report was not for investors, but to give an independent view for potential exploration partners such as Mindea & the geophysics teams.

tk95 - One of the biggest attractions of Kavango is that they target their expenditure extremely cost-effectively, and make a habit of double-checking results with external expertise. This makes them a highly credible exploration outfit, unlike many others I can think of. It is eminently sensible to get an external independent opinion of the potential economic feasibility of a huge project of this nature. If the opinion came back negative, in that it would be very difficult to generate a return on a project this deep, then you would not waste money drilling there, but move on to another project with better returns.

The two most important factors in these theoretical calculations are the capital costs of block caving at depth, and the Uranium concentration.

A capex of $4.5 - 6.0 Bn is clearly only for the largest of companies to consider, and they may not be overly impressed with a relatively low IRR - the 31% scenario is certainly worthwhile, but the 17% one does not allow for much margin of error.

Half the value from Olympic Dam is in the Uranium, and until KAV has stuck a few drillholes into the hoped-for mineralised zones, we don't know if there is any U at all. It would be interesting to know how these estimates of concentrations of Au, Ag, Cu & U were arrived at. I will have a read through the full report.

However, a potential NPV of $8 Bn is certainly an interesting possibility for an $8 M market cap company - a 1000x increase in value would be very welcome :-) Plus of course the Noril'sk & Copper Belt targets.

BRV - Particularly interesting is that this morning Tom Evans / PennPetro announced a farm-in to a Tunisian licence. Terms include 80% reimbursement to vendor of exploration costs to date, retention of a shareholding by vendor, and possibility of vendor re-acquiring some of the licence at a 250% premium at a later date. The licence seems to have many of the characteristics of Guercif, similar declared resource, similar potential resource, and sitting astride a pipeline to Europe!
https://www.investegate.co.uk/pennpetro-energy-plc--ppp-/rns/farm-in-to-saouaf-permit--tunisia---share-issuance/202207210700092175T/

This exchange on Lonny's Twitter April 20/21, 2022:

Cube: Nice to see Amina Benkhadra acknowledging that #PRD plan to map the Guercif basin for oil...
Its no great secret. Numerous kitchens. Jurassic carbonates. (And plenty of gas, of course)
So...GET DRILLING! We do love oil! (ok, and gas!)

Lonny: I love cooking with oil and gas.

Seabright - I am sure that you are correct that the deeper reservoirs will have plenty of oil - I recall that our enigmatic friend Cube's first post here was on this subject. There was subsequent discussion on kitchen depths, temperatures & likely oil and gas windows.
* We also know that in the 1920s & 30s there was commercial oil extraction on the Guercif licence.
* There are numerous documented oil seeps.
* HSSI shows widespread surface oil traces.

May I clarify what you mean by 5x as much oil as gas? Are you talking simple volume, BTUs, or BOE? For example 1 TFC of gas = 190 MM BOE.

2000 - Lone Star Energy "found" vast amounts of oil at Talsinnt, and sold half the company to local investors including Prince Moulay Abdallah Aloaoui, cousin of King Mohammed VI. The newly-crowned King even went on national TV to proclaim an end to all Morocco's economic problems. Unfortunately, there wasn't any economic deposit, and every body got sued and / or lost face. In Morocco, losing face is far worse than being sued.

2016 - Sound Energy drilled Tendrara and announced a major find, they even organised a party in London for their lucky investors, and various shindigs in Morocco. I'm sure you know that things didn't turn out quite as planned, with nothing yet commercialized, and an ongoing court case regarding a massive Moroccan tax bill - Sound have clearly upset some important people in Rabat.

2022 - Some people are publicly, albeit well-meaningly, posting suggestions that Guercif holds around 20 TCF. This may well turn out to be true, but will require a lot of time, money & effort to prove up. Since this figure appears to be based on the unofficial and unverified opinion of one person, may I suggest it may be prudent to wait at least until MOU-fan has been fully flow tested, at least a few holes have been stuck into MOU-NE, and at least until some more extensive modern seismic has been shot elsewhere on the licence. Having worked in Morocco, I know how quickly information is circulated within certain circles, and too much shouting about this makes me uncomfortable, and I'm sure would make PRD management equally uneasy.

This is a polite suggestion, I do not wish to start yet another quarrel on this otherwise excellent board.