Member Info for KeithOz

PT. If you believe everything you write, and you have written the same thing numerous times, you clearly see an increase in the HE1 sp as inconceivable. So I strongly suggest you use your entire investment pot to buy short CFDs on HE1, and recommend this action to all your friends. By your own calculations, your profit could be 2-3p per unit.
From your posting, there can be no risk whatsoever of being caught in the inevitable short squeeze when the drilling timetable is released, since you are quite certain that it is not going to happen. You cannot see any possibility that downside to this trade would be unlimited, potentially exceeding your investment by at least an order of magnitude in just one day. So if all the assertions you have made in your posts are true, despite suggestions to the contrary by a number of people here who actually know what they are talking about, why not just go ahead and profit from your own advice? In your own words, it would be CRAZY not to.
Of course, you may have already done this, and your repetitious postings are an indication of increasing panic.

... and since GRH received so many suggestions for treating his plantar fasciitis, I'm sure you will receive an equal number of suggestions from the kind BB readers for treating your resultant infection(s).

I'm afraid I can only offer a story of an acting President of Russia, and do so only to warn against getting involved in any kind of Russian business, as if current events were not warning enough. I have to leave a few details out, you can work out why.
In the mid 90's I was responsible for EMEA business development for a well-known US based corporation. We were asked by a certain US government department to work with Russia to set up a technical centre that could employ a number of highly-qualified biotechnologists and other scientific specialists, who had become unemployed after the collapse of the Soviet Union, resulting in the end of the programme they were working on. The US was concerned that they could otherwise be recruited by terrorist organisations.
The arrangement was that a subsidiary of Gazprom would supply the land to the JV, and we would build the facility just outside Moscow. Yeltsin was in hospital or drunk, maybe both, so Viktor Chernomyrdin, as acting President, signed the contract and came along to stick in the first shovel for the ground breaking ceremony. Seemed a very nice man, highly intelligent, excellent English, was very relaxed and sociable.
Shortly after the project was completed, we were informed that a previously unknown company actually owned the land, not Gazprom. They claimed we needed permission from them to build the facility, and they were demanding a ridiculous sum of money for it. (Yes, we did do extensive DD, even though the contract was signed by the top guy). All the previously involved politicians were mysteriously unavailable, so I met with a Gazprom director and told him if they didn't sort it out we were taking them to court for fraud. He just laughed and walked out of the room. Next week I learnt that he was also a 4-star General and had been appointed Deputy Minister of Justice, a position he retained under Putin. The facility remains in Russian hands, my visa was cancelled, and I have never been able to return to Russia, nor would want to.
For the scary background, see 'Biohazard' by Ken Alibek.

"This decision was arrived at when it was established that a commercial LNG terminal would only be viable if Ireland increased its longer-term need for gas through increased data centre demand, and that this was environmentally unsustainable." It seems very odd that the Irish government do not consider a project to have commercial viability, when those commercial organisations planning to build them do think so. Also, where is the vast additional amount of gas coming from for all those newly-announced gas fired power stations?

Sorry, I was supposed to be replying to @InvestingGoals.

DBD - I wasn't recommending BNL, I was using their press release yesterday as an example of what a particular flow rate can provide in income (not profit).

I'm curious as to why people come on to this board just to convince us poor fools, who apparently can't tell the difference between a £ sign and a $ sign, not to waste our money investing in a poorly run company with no chance of discovering a resource that doesn't exist. Have they been tasked by a Greater Being to save financially-inept souls?

Give us a break, we all know that you're either desperate to close out a short, or looking for a cheaper entry point for a stock you know is poised to fly. All you can ever say is "Management are liars, they have to do a placing". Yawn. Can't be bothered to debate with you any longer. Bye.

@PT. Why do you not understand that there are more ways of financing a company than a placing? Why do you not understand that there is no need for additional finance this side of a drill at Tai? Why are you playing the same broken record over and over again? But as I said earlier today "if you don't understand any of the above, then yes, you are just gambling, and to you I am just ramping."

Yet another big target. That's a whole lot of drilling. Given the scale and the high probability of economic resources, I suspect we may see a partnership for the KCB before anywhere else.

@Dai mentioned the importance of flow rates in determining commerciality - quite correct. As an illustration, ASX-listed Blue Star Helium put out the downunder equivalent of an RNS this morning on their first proper borehole:

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/CommSec/commsec-node-api/1.0/event/document/1410-02561730-5TVJQSBNVNT0MRRHSHKFOUEL74/pdf?access_token=0007LG0c4ucgNRlh0ks6cIByqvDS

The drill has so far penetrated 10' into the upper of two reservoirs, each probably 100' thick. Flow through a tiny 1¼" choke started at 380mcf/d, rising to 465mcf/d after 48 hours. They now intend to drill lower into the upper reservoir, complete testing there, than drill down to the lower and repeat.

Let's assume 400mcf/d at 8% He (as observed in nearby wells) for each of the two reservoirs and a conservative $250/mcf. That's $16,000 revenue per day. The borehole cost $300,000. Payback in less than 3 WEEKS - most projects would think they are doing well with payback after 3 YEARS. Oh, and revenue of $5.8M per year isn't to be sniffed at.

Let's look at just Tai. Those folks on here who claim that the Tai cos is less than 50% clearly have not done their homework, and do not understand what happened last year. Those who claim that there is unlikely to be commerciality have neither geological understanding nor knowledge of primary-grade arithmetic.

The SRK CPR was published in November 2020. This gave Tai a 27% cos, and an unrisked P50 of 1.74BCF, assuming 4.4% He concentration. That's worth $435M at $250/mcf. Since 2020, there has been reprocessing of the original seismic, which revealed Tai to be far more attractive than initially realised, hence the decision to prioritise drilling at that prospect. Despite drilling with the wrong drill, they encountered He at several levels, confirming a working trap - with one description of it 'bubbling like a jacuzzi'. The only reason a discovery was not declared last year was that borehole conditions prevented a standard DST. It was confirmed that an adequate seal exists at several different levels. Since that drill, further more detailed seismic and MSSI has defined the prospect in much greater detail, and petrological examination of the actual core recovered from Tai-1 has revealed good reservoir conditions in terms of porosity & permeability.

HE1 will be drilling Tai again in Oct/Nov. They have a proper O&G rig, and detailed knowledge of the ground conditions that will be encountered over every metre of the borehole, including reservoir depths and mud weight needed. It is known there are effective traps with gas in place at several levels, each with an effective seal. None of this was known at the time of issue of the CPR. To think that the Tai geological cos is still 27% reveals a lack of understanding as to how such things are estimated.

In summary, if you don't understand any of the above, then yes, you are just gambling, and to you I am just ramping. Your choi

From my files, a blast from the past - December 2017. The first time I heard of Helium One "a colossal scale project". I read through the PhD theses from Oxford & Durham Depts. of Geology, spoke to some contacts in Oxford, and bought into Solo, who had 10% of HE1, with options for a further 10%. Proof that exploration takes time & patience.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UT4HtaHStNQ&ab_channel=Proactive

Charlie Munger: "Being prepared, on a few occasions in a lifetime, to act promptly in scale, in doing some simple & logical things, will often dramatically improve the financial results of that lifetime. A few major opportunities, clearly recognisable as such, will usually come to one who continuously searches and waits with a curious mind. And then all is that is required is to bet heavily when the odds are extremely favourable, using resources available as a result of prudence & patience in the past."

Part 3.
"It is critical that Minister Ryan and DECC take accountability of the situation by engaging with all options at this juncture. A point I’m hopeful members of the Oireachtas Committee on Environment will emphasise today.”

Part 2.
"The proposal includes the procurement of two floating storage and regasification units (FSRU) which can moor to the subsea end of the Kinsale Gas Pipeline 50km beyond the horizon. Imported LNG can be brought back to its gas state onboard the FSRUs at the mooring point and transferred through the subsea pipeline to the associated national grid connection point. With no additional onshore infrastructure required, the proposal will have less environmental and cost impact than other proposed land-based energy infrastructure such as the Shannon LNG terminal.
Mr Griffiths said: “Its incredibility disappointing that there has been no engagement from Department officials on the Mag Mell proposal since it was initially presented to them over two years ago. Furthermore, we’ve received radio silence from Minister Ryan despite ongoing attempts to explain in detail the unique opportunity the Kinsale Gas Pipeline offers Ireland. Had the offshore importation and storage option for non-fracked gas been implemented when it was first presented, this winter’s energy emergency and price inflation could have at least been ameliorated.
Future planning for secure backup gas supply
“Unfortunately, we’re in a position where there is no quick fix for the winter ahead. However, time is very much of the essence if we are to avoid a situation where Ireland becomes 100% reliant on a single source of gas supply via the UK pipeline. Alarmingly, this appears to be the scenario Minister Ryan is sleepwalking into as the Corrib Gas Field depletes over the next four years. Sole reliance on a single external gas supplier means Ireland will relinquish any control it has on price and supply needlessly increasing volatility and risk. Any UK price hikes will inevitably impact the Irish consumer.”
Mr Griffiths concluded: “Proposals like Mag Mell and others give Ireland more options on where we source gas supply and most importantly at what price. Mag Mell still offers the quickest solution in terms of implementation before Corrib depletes and maximises use of our existing gas energy infrastructure. In addition, the proposal offers Ireland a distinct competitive advantage while providing secure, cost-effective back-up energy support in the transition to a green grid. It is critical that our policy makers accept that renewable energy needs to be backed up by gas fired generation. There should be no surprise in that.
“If anyone is naive enough to believe that this will not be a recurring situation going forward for several years at least then they cannot understand the geopolitics of gas. Nor do they understand how exposed Ireland is relative to the rest of the EU to security of gas supply. Gas will be required for electricity generation for many years to come when renewables cannot meet the grid demand due to weather constraints.

PG statement, Part 1.
“In light of skyrocketing energy costs and an uncertain winter ahead, the Minister must address how his department let Ireland’s electricity grid fall into such a precarious state. Minister Ryan also has questions to answer over his ongoing refusal to engage with and fully consider all options which would relieve the situation, including liquified natural gas (LNG). We’re close to a point now where lack of engagement will necessitate a public inquiry into the decision-making process of the Minister’s department over the past three years.
“Furthermore, there has been a concerning failure by Minister Ryan and his Department to communicate across Government on the increasing volatility of Ireland’s energy supply, particularly with respect to gas. This was evidenced by recent comments by An Taoiseach, Michéal Martin TD in stating he was surprised to learn about the current state of the electricity grid. We know that potential supply shortages were repeatedly flagged by energy experts, the CRU and Eirgrid long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This begs the question as to why the problem was ignored by Minister Ryan and his department with no definitive action taken? Ultimately leaving the consumer and Irish economy to pay an increasing heavy cost.”
Government climate action ambitions in trouble
Referring to the Government’s climate action ambitions, Mr Griffiths said: “In the short and medium term the Government’s climate action policy is in tatters. CO2 emissions are rising due to increased burning of dirtier fossil fuels like coal and oil for power generation to meet the shortfall in availability of cleaner gas-fired power generation. At the same time the public is being asked by Minister Ryan to make significant lifestyle sacrifices. The Government needs to get its own house in order on CO2 emissions from power generation by implementing a clear future strategy for security and affordability of gas before unfairly asking others to make personal sacrifices.”
Option to reuse Kinsale infrastructure for offshore importation of LNG ignored
In April 2020, Mag Mell Energy Ireland tabled a proposal with Minister Ryan and the Department of Environment, Climate and Communication (DECC) to repurpose existing infrastructure at the Kinsale Head Gas Field for the offshore importation of non-fracked LNG.

The proposal has the capacity to supply one third of Ireland’s peak gas demand, directly replacing gas from the depleting Corrib Gas Field.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's for the three derampers. You've presented your view, so now it's my turn. I've been here since Solo, through Scirocco and Attis, and you won't dislodge any of my seven figure bets that not only will HE1 declare a discovery this year, but also commerciality of the world's largest Helium resource, shortly followed next year with a revised CPR for the world's largest Helium Reserve. You think that is ramping? - I think it is educated and informed research. Well, come back in December and we can discuss our differing viewpoints then.

KR - You also need a competent and experienced rig crew, that takes a long time to train up.

Just to answer the speculation earlier - Mindea are working with POW on Molopo Farms.

Useful indication of mineralisation at i10, but not at a grade that will have potential joint venturers calling Ben on his red telephone. Seems to be like a small IOCG system, but the complexity and size means that several more boreholes will be required to determine if there is anything worthwhile - I am hopeful that CSAMT will help in getting the positioning right. If they find just 1g/t (1ppm) over 100m, I will be more than happy.

DD - I am of the same opinion, and also sold out of everything other than resources stocks 18 months ago. I hold only six companies, all of which have the characteristics you describe.

Starzy - I suspect that because of the unconsolidated strata (particularly the Lake Bed Formation), they will log in stages, then case. They have a drill able to start with a large diameter borehole, so will be able to run the first set of casing, then reduce borehole size - possibly 3 or 4 casing stages, depends on how stable the borehole turns out. This will obviously slow down drilling a bit, since you have to retrieve the wireline / tools each time, but is probably sensible in view of the borehole stability problems that were experienced last time.

Once TD is achieved, they will drill stem test (DST) those sections that had Helium shows in the mud on the way down. Basically, you temporarily block the borehole usually just above and below the section to be tested and sample the gas. This is repeated for all prospective sections. Analysis of the gas concentration will allow declaration of discovery, this can be done on site, and the entire procedure should take only a couple of days.

Next the borehole will need to be completed ready for flow testing. This will involve cementing in a suitable wellhead - allow perhaps a week. Next you would run various transient pressure tests, measuring gas pressure build up over different periods - this gives an indication of reservoir permeability. Allow perhaps another week.

Then the flow test proper begins, where the amount of gas per hour is measured continuously over a prolonged period - usually at least 30 days. At the end of this period, if all is going well, flow is high enough and pressure is not dropping, commerciality may be declared. Sometimes a 90 day test will be run before declaration - this is particularly the case for fracked wells, where fracking fluid needs to be fully removed before a properly representational flow is achieved. HE1 is not fracking.

An interesting question is what happens to the gas produced during flow testing. Methane (natural gas) is usually flared, of course the expected He / N from Tai can simply be released into the atmosphere - but if it is 8%+ He that would be a very expensive waste. I will be interested to see if HE1 have made any arrangements to hire a gas concentrator and a couple of trucks to capture flow test gas, once they know from the DSTs what they actually have.

I know there are people on here who have more engineering & drilling knowledge than me - please add your comments, it would be very helpful.