Oil11 Sep 2022 03:19
I would respectfully disagree that there is a 10% chance of oil on the Guercif licence. Very little has been said about oil. Firstly, PRD is pitching itself as an energy transition company, and as of this week is clearly focussing on developing a wholly owned Morocco CNG business itself, and only having an interest in the rest as a junior, non-operator partner, in a JV. Secondly, there are Morocco-imposed limitations as to what can be said, as we heard in response to the question about oil at the end of Thursday's presentation (at 33m 40s). Despite this, PG suggested that MOU-NE alone could contain 500 - 1 Bn bbl.
PRD has referenced the possibility of oil in RNSs, principally 12th May 2022: "Oil and gas shows are present on trend to the west of Guercif in the target reservoirs in the depleted Boudraa and Tselfat oil fields and in the DGR-1 and DGR-3 wells, demonstrating an active petroleum system to the west that will be tested by MOU-NE. The presentation of 28th Sept 2021, p. 12, compared MOU-NE to the Libyan Zelten reservoirs, and suggested it was analogous to the now-depleted Moroccan Bourdraa & Tselfat oil fields.
None of this is new. From my copy of Dunstan's 1938 Science of Petrology, p. 186: "Seepages are known in the Earache district of Spanish Morocco, and are common in the triangular region, mainly in French Morocco, formed by Earache, Tizeroutine, and Meknes [1,1932] ...... In 1934 a well on the broken, elevated Djebcl Tselfat structure gave 250 tons of oil per day, but further work has shown the productive area to be limited to 120 acres, and to be partly water-flooded. The productive horizon is a Triassic limestone which appears to be or to have been oil-bearing over an area of at least 16 miles by 12 miles. Research has largely eliminated the possibilities of much oil in beds younger than the Jurassic, and efforts are being concentrated on finding Triassic limestones or older beds under suitably sealed conditions. The types of structure under investigation include folds with the Domerian crest near the surface, deeper crests beyond the frontal faults, and Triassic structures beneath discordant Cretaceous beds. The last group is of considerable importance, for this concealed condition obtains in about three-quarters of the suitable area in northern Morocco."
and from The Institute of Petroleum, Journal 1936: Vol 22, p 239: "At Tizeroutine, in Taza, a seepage of very light oil occurs in a complex of Eocene-Cretaceous folds, and geological studies and some shallow drilling have been accomplished. One well has reached a depth of 700 m., but the work is now suspended. The first real encouragement was obtained when the well “ Tselfat 26°’ gushed in 1926."
I posted a rather quaint photo of this on my Twitter feed a while back: https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1504653923541393408
Clearly there is a greater than a 10% chance of oil across the Guercif licence, an area equivalent to 66 North Sea blocks.
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