Member Info for KeithOz

According to the real LSE (London Stock Exchange), there were 39,240,941 PRD shares traded yesterday.

I note in PANR's release today, they state "Pantheon, like all companies in the oil and gas industry, is experiencing significant inflationary cost and supply chain pressures at present". This suggests that the reason for the speed of placing as given yesterday is correct, and not the hogwash that some here have been proposing.

@Bob. Hmm, Beelzebub's Tales to his Grandson was real weird stuff.

Hidden deep within today's SDX 6-month data, they achieved an average of $10.86 / MCf over 6 months, $10.60 over the last quarter. This compares to $11.40 over 2021. I expected the price to go up, but it's a bit difficult to interpret since they screwed up with their major contract, having to pull out from renewal since they couldn't guarantee supply, and didn't want to fall foul of the reverse of the 'take or pay' clause - 'the provide or pay'. There's a lesson for PRD there when drafting contracts, but I'm sure Lonny knows a lot more about that than me.

Blimey - over 300 pages of stuff. No I haven't read it, only available to potential JV partners with an NDA.

So the Karoo Noril'sk model appears to be confirmed, and KAV are going about locating potential orebodies in an appropriate manner using a combination of CSAMT & TDEM - obvious next step is to drill the B1 conductors to turn 'proof of concept' into 'proof'!

Interesting development is that the Tshane complex is prospective for PGEs on their own, as well as with NiCu. This is reminiscent of the Bushveld complex, the world's largest source of PGE. Tshane is close to the surface in the southern section of the KSZ, so I guess that is where they will start looking. But it's one hell of a big job - KAV's licences are underlain by 50 x 650km of Tshane.

@Pawnsacrifice - I agree there was a pent up demand awaiting resolution of the financing - my question is how has a demand of 30M shares has been met?

@Blackdogtaff - You're quite correct, the SDX RNS was dated 11th, but spud was 6th.

Oily - this occurred to me as a possibility, but if half or more of the placing has been sold forward, Novum would be shown to be totally irresponsible in their choice of placees, and should be fired immediately, since they would clearly not be acting in the best interests of the company. I can't see any broker worth their salt taking that kind of risk. I hope.

Share turnover by lunchtime was 30M+, compared to a normal day of around 0.5M. The vast majority of trades are at or close to the Ask, with little variation in price, so I do not see evidence of the same shares changing hands multiple times, especially with a spread ranging from 4-8% this morning. The placing shares will not be admitted to trade until 23rd August. MMs like to keep a balanced book. So where are all these newly-bought shares coming from?

The arithmetical effect of the placing should be to reduce the share price by only 0.4p. Balanced against that is the negative perception of a 30% placing discount, then rebalanced by the positive sentiment of getting the logjam cleared. But who really cares about the opening price (unless you can afford to pick up some bargains). I'm not selling anything until PRD has poked a few holes into MOU-NE

Should have added, that I'm delighted we retain full equity. After confirmation of discovery PRD gets the full benefit of all that is on the Guercif licence, since it will become self-funding.

So my friend Oscar got it right! Today he reconfirmed "we talked about Mercury moving to the tip of the Finger Of Fate it formed with Neptune and Pluto. Today, it's the Sun's turn to take up the position Mercury held. So, while communication was the catalyst for magical transformation, the time for talk is over."
I'm pleased that this has finally been sorted, although rather disappointed at the 5.5p price.

The key issues to be sorted were:
Financing of drilling
Final position & approval of MOU-2 location & preparation of drill pad.
Receipt of all ancilliary equipment and consumables

Confirmation of the last two are still needed.

The first SDX bore was spudded on 11th August, so the earliest timetable may be something like this:

23/8 Td for SDX no.1
4 days to move
28/8 Spud of SDX no.2
12 days to drill
8/9 TD for SDX no. 2
14 days to pack up, give the crew a few days off & move across country
23/9 Spud of MOU-2
4/10 TD of MOU-2

Lonny, if you're reading this, after the previous post-drill misadventures, could you please get an independent 3rd party to read through the discovery RNS before issuing? Something along the lines of “110m of 500psi overpressured reservoir of excellent porosity & permeability was encountered from 1150m. This suggests that the entire MOU-fan closure of 31km² is gas charged, not just the 11km² MOU-2 prospect.”

"Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass. It's waiting that helps you as an investor and a lot of people just can't stand to wait. If you didn't get the deferred -gratification gene, you've got to work very hard to overcome that."

-Charlie Munger

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220816/pdf/45cwkxqsntk4gp.pdf

Interesting drill core photos, the mineralisation is in a highly sheared & brecciated zone, as anticipated at KAV's Morula.

Note: this is just the first of 57 targets identified on Cobre's licence!

@Dai2 - I don't do share price predictions, especially not 'leading up to a drill', since this is based largely on sentiment, and I'm not a sentimental person :-) I evaluate potential by looking at net-to-ECO resource x chance of success x $5-10 per Bbl.
Gazania is just an opener for 2B, and is attractive because it already has some Contingent Resources based on the A-J-1 success. There are a number of additional prospects on this licence, so it could well end up with a total of 1Bn+ bbl, but that will be some way off.

I have no idea what will happen with Orinduik, and certainly not when. For me the big attraction is 3B/4B next year, and I have no intention of selling before then. I don't really care what the share price does in the short term - since I am not a trader. I know it's not the answer you wanted, but neither I nor anyone else on this board is able to make accurate short term predictions.

I wasn't going to comment after the last book BT tweeted (on Noril'sk), but yes the report underneath starts with a K. Also, alchemists originally tried to turn base metals into gold, but as I said I'm not commenting on that.

Dai2 - Not everywhere, only in the very few top quality opportunities, after substantial research!

For the non-rational folks, here is Oscar Cainer's astrological general outlook for the coming week. Not to be relied upon as investing advice, but I particularly like the last sentence :-)

Weekly Horoscope
Saturday, 13 August 2022

Transformations rarely happen overnight. Achievements that seem to spring from nowhere are almost always the result of lots of behind-the-scenes dedication and preparation. This is a week where deeply rewarding action is possible... but success depends on being able to utilise previously gathered resources. With the Sun taking its position at the tip of Neptune and Pluto's 'Finger of Fate', if ever there was a time to stop procrastinating and start executing a game plan, this is it. Innovative energy is up for grabs.

www.cainer.com

Gudin - there is a near-vertical fault forming the sidewall of the A-J graben, which potentially compartmentalises the resource. The main Gazania prospect is to the north of this fault. The sidetrack is designed to go through the fault zone and into the additional Pelargonium prospect a little to the south. Both the first drill & the sidetrack go through the shallower Namaqualand prospect. You can see this on p.9 of yesterday's presentation, which in turn is taken from the Africa Energy website:

https://africaenergycorp.com/operations/project-south-africa-block-2b/

If you use the 'click to enlarge' button, the last two Africa Energy slides show this cross section, and a map of the different A-J Graben prospects, together with the individual potential resources that make up the >300 MMBbls.

I find it rather curious that someone who has been claiming all sorts of nonsense about PRD management, despite it being spelled out in the initial prospectus, is now using the PRD bulletin board to recommend an unrelated company where:
* losses are increasing sharply
* the share price has fallen from 170p to 8p in a year
* the CFO left recently in undisclosed circumstances
* institutional shareholders are exiting
* auditors are refusing to sign off the accounts

From SDX today "SAK-1 is the first of a fully-funded, two well campaign on the SDX Gharb Basin acreage, Morocco planned for Q3 2022, with up to a further three wells being considered for acceleration into Q4 2022/Q1 2023 depending on the results of the Q3 campaign and customer demand."

Sak-1 spudded 6th August, so 2nd well likely to be finished mid September. Interesting that the planned 3-well campaign originally firmly scheduled for later this year is now "being considered" after the cancelled sale and onboarding of a wealthier partner. This maybe gives us a longer drill window than initially expected.