Member Info for KeithOz

Re post today @ 18.20

I would be highly interested to hear how it is proposed to make cement and fertilizer just from electricity, solar or otherwise - both require large volumes of natural gas as part of the chemical process. Fertiliser is Morocco's largest export sector - 18% of the economy, cement is one of the largest internal sectors. The largest overall trade sector (export and internal consumption combined) is agriculture, which accounts for 40% of the country's employment and is thus a key to social stability. Agriculture requires fertilizer, which requires gas. Lots of gas. You can work out who owns the largest agricultural business in Morocco - Les Domaines Agricoles, formerly named Les Domaines Royaux.

Shell gas imported from Spain is currently $17 / mcf. This is too expensive for industrial customers to compete profitably with European peers, and is totally screwing the country's balance of payments. There is insufficient gas imported to meet current Moroccan power generation, let alone planned future requirements.

"Investors here would be well advised to observe the bigger strategic picture and develop independence of mind."

Indeed.

Between - Paul Griffiths. Lonny Baumgardner. Moyra Scott. Carl Kindinger. Nigel Haemoglobin. SYD197. Chesh. Graham Harrison. Cube. Porters. Me. Welloilbeefhooked. Trifle. Eurochamp.

Answer: AntiVenom has made unpleasant remarks about all these people and/or their views in just the last month.

@SamL. I can confirm your impression is 100% correct.

Sorry for the double post, I am away from home and having connection issues.

@SamL. If I was in Paul's position, I would be trying to exit managerial responsibility for Morocco at the optimum price. I believe, to be confirmed shortly, that there is already a very large volume of gas discovered at Guercif, with plenty more to come, plus a very good chance of substantial quantities of oil and/or condensates. This volume is far greater than can be handled by a 3-person team - substantial managerial & financial resources will be required to realise a full field development programme, beyond the capabilities of PRD in its current form.

Paul has stated on several occasions that the easiest way to do this, from a regulatory & tax view, is to sell all or a majority stake in PGVM (Predator Gas Ventures Morocco, the wholly-owned local PRD subsidiary). Obviously ONHYM will want a say in the potential purchaser - many of us had good reason to believe that NewMed Resources of Israel was involved, but this is now looking very unlikely - the $2Bn purchase of 50% of NewMed by BP & ADNOC is unlikely to go ahead, so they don't have the funds for PRD, and the current political situation makes it almost impossible for an Israeli company to purchase a Moroccan asset.

I expect the best price will be achieved by 1/. demonstrating that substantial cash flows can be generated by a CNG operation (note - it may not be necessary to actually have this up & running), 2/. proving up gas volumes for the MOU-Fan, Middle Sands, and the MOU-NE/Titanosaurus Jurassic carbonates.

The last RNS suggested that cash flow from T & T would be applied to financing MOU-3 Twin & MOU-NE drilling, which means H2 2024. Depending upon how the CNG operation is actually financed, funds for drilling may be available earlier. Whatever, drilling results and CNG operation viability should be finalised by Q3 2024, so I would expect a sale of all or most of PGVM in Q3/Q4, my money is still on ADNOC. An earlier sale would be possible if Jurassic / Triassic was excluded, or if a reasonable stake in PGVM was retained by PRD in order to benefit from the upside of future discoveries. Paul has always been concerned that release of flow testing / volumetric data would make PRD a target for an opportunistic hostile bid, hence the wish to get at least one commercial agreement in place to use as an independent indication of value should a defence be necessary.

As usual, just my current thoughts - as we have seen, things can change rapidly 😏

@SamL. If I was in Paul's position, I would be trying to exit managerial responsibility for Morocco at the optimum price. I believe, to be confirmed shortly, that there is already a very large volume of gas discovered at Guercif, with plenty more to come, plus a very good chance of substantial quantities of oil and/or condensates. This volume is far greater than can be handled by a 3-person team - substantial managerial & financial resources will be required to realise a full field development programme, beyond the capabilities of PRD in its current form.

Paul has stated on several occasions that the easiest way to do this, from a regulatory & tax view, is to sell all or a majority stake in PGVM (Predator Gas Ventures Morocco, the wholly-owned local PRD subsidiary). Obviously ONHYM will want a say in the potential purchaser - many of us had good reason to believe that NewMed Resources of Israel was involved, but this is now looking very unlikely - the $2Bn purchase of 50% of NewMed by BP & ADNOC is unlikely to go ahead, so they don't have the funds for PRD, and the current political situation makes it almost impossible for an Israeli company to purchase a Moroccan asset.

I expect the best price will be achieved by 1/. demonstrating that substantial cash flows can be generated by a CNG operation (note - it may not be necessary to actually have this up & running), 2/. proving up gas volumes for the MOU-Fan, Middle Sands, and the MOU-NE/Titanosaurus Jurassic carbonates.

The last RNS suggested that cash flow from T & T would be applied to financing MOU-3 Twin & MOU-NE drilling, which means H2 2024. Depending upon how the CNG operation is actually financed, funds for drilling may be available earlier. Whatever, drilling results and CNG operation viability should be finalised by Q3 2024, so I would expect a sale of all or most of PGVM in Q3/Q4, my money is still on ADNOC. An earlier sale would be possible if Jurassic / Triassic was excluded, or if a reasonable stake in PGVM was retained by PRD in order to benefit from the upside of future discoveries. Paul has always been concerned that release of flow testing / volumetric data would make PRD a target for an opportunistic hostile bid, hence the wish to get at least one commercial agreement in place to use as an independent indication of value should a defence be necessary.

As usual, just my current thoughts - as we have seen, things can change rapidly 😏

@SamL. If I was in Paul's position, I would be trying to exit managerial responsibility for Morocco at the optimum price. I believe, to be confirmed shortly, that there is already a very large volume of gas discovered at Guercif, with plenty more to come, plus a very good chance of substantial quantities of oil and/or condensates. This volume is far greater than can be handled by a 3-person team - substantial managerial & financial resources will be required to realise a full field development programme, beyond the capabilities of PRD in its current form.

Paul has stated on several occasions that the easiest way to do this, from a regulatory & tax view, is to sell all or a majority stake in PGVM (Predator Gas Ventures Morocco, the wholly-owned local PRD subsidiary). Obviously ONHYM will want a say in the potential purchaser - many of us had good reason to believe that NewMed Resources of Israel was involved, but this is now looking very unlikely - the $2Bn purchase of 50% of NewMed by BP & ADNOC is unlikely to go ahead, so they don't have the funds for PRD, and the current political situation makes it almost impossible for an Israeli company to purchase a Moroccan asset.

I expect the best price will be achieved by 1/. demonstrating that substantial cash flows can be generated by a CNG operation (note - it may not be necessary to actually have this up & running), 2/. proving up gas volumes for the MOU-Fan, Middle Sands, and the MOU-NE/Titanosaurus Jurassic carbonates.

The last RNS suggested that cash flow from T & T would be applied to financing MOU-3 Twin & MOU-NE drilling, which means H2 2024. Depending upon how the CNG operation is actually financed, funds for drilling may be available earlier. Whatever, drilling results and CNG operation viability should be finalised by Q3 2024, so I would expect a sale of all or most of PGVM in Q3/Q4, my money is still on ADNOC. An earlier sale would be possible if Jurassic / Triassic was excluded, or if a reasonable stake in PGVM was retained by PRD in order to benefit from the upside of future discoveries. Paul has always been concerned that release of flow testing / volumetric data would make PRD a target for an opportunistic hostile bid, hence the wish to get at least one commercial agreement in place to use as an independent indication of value should a defence be necessary.

As usual, just my current thoughts - as we have seen, things can change rapidly 😏

Oh dear, Nigel. Have you not heard the expression 'when you are already in a hole, don't dig yourself deeper'. Rather than calling other posters playground names, try doing some simple research. fyi, I had to study chemistry at university level in order to obtain a degree in geology, so already knew that propane has a higher calorific content than methane, making it potentially more explosive.

1. Flogas (UK) already supply CNG tor industrial customers, and happily ship large tankers of it round the country without military escort. They also supply CNG as well as LPG for industry AND private domestic gas-powered vehicles, used right now on British roads. Their data sheets indicate the same transport safety labelling.

2. Take a look at this from the National Association of Fire Investigators:

https://www.nafi.org/blog/explosion-severity-propane-versus-natural-gas/#:~:text=Although%20the%20maximum%20laminar%20burning,conditions%20with%20a%20perfectly%2Dmixed

"propane explosions have been shown to produce higher overpressures in unconfined explosion tests when compared to methane. In vapor cloud explosion modelling, methane is considered to be a “low” reactivity fuel, while propane is listed as a “medium” reactivity fuel."

"In closed vessel explosion testing, the maximum rate of pressure rise for propane is almost twice than that for methane."

3. You continue to post unsubstantiated drivel, I really can't be bothered to engage with you anymore.

Nigel, please do us all a favour and make yourself useful. You can use this contact form: https://www.maroc.ma/en/node/806

to get in touch with the Prime Minister of Morocco. Could you ask him if he is aware that the company he owns is planning to move CNG tanker trucks around the country, in addition to the 1400 other gas delivery trucks they already have in operation. Point out that you consider this is a security risk, and ask if these trucks would be operating illegally, and how he proposes to protect the good citizens of Morocco from accidental or deliberate combustion.

Thank you, Keith.

I don't give investment advice. 01 Dec 2023 04:22 "My conclusions are for my own information, but I will also post them here for your interest or mockery".

Here's some general, non-investment advice, though. Take a look at the Russian army - all they do is repeat the same useless and obvious tactics over and over again, never achieving anything worthwhile, their losses building up, while the whole world laughs at and despises them. My cat can see through the poor-quality FUD this sad little bunch are trying to spread, so why waste so much of your time making fools of yourselves for just for the faint hope of picking up some loose change?

Do you really think a company with the financial leverage, technical expertise and in-country clout of Afriquia Gaz would be in public discussions with PRD unless they were completely satisfied that very substantial assets were available for commercialisation? Why do you think so many people with substantial relevant industry experience, who use this bulletin board, have seven- or eight-figure shareholdings maintained over several years, which they have no intention of selling any time soon?

@WB again, same post, "rampers are those who constantly lie and pump to get a few points on a daily basis, and fleece the honest souls here - of there are any left.(sic) This is the most cynical bulletin board I am proud to have read without posting too often." 1). I see plenty of genuine investors here, I don't see any of your rampers. 2). I agree this is the most cynical bulletin board - you and your friends are the problem. 3). imho you post far too often.

At least Nigel put a smile on our faces with his creative invention of an Algerian invasion, inadequacy of Guercif City Fire Dept., unidirectional pipelines, disbelief in the existence of water tankers, and even terrorist abduction of CNG trucks...or was that alien abduction?

@WaffenBurret, 13.37 today:

"rampers (ie those going long who have piled in with 1Ok plus)"

Who would take investment advice from someone whose financial position is such that they think 10k is 'piling in'?

My reading is that a second deal cannot be finalised until the Afriqui Gaz MOU is converted into a final contract. I thought it interesting that there is a 50 mmcfgd cap for Afriqui - this is presumably an ONHYM requirement to ensure that indigenous gas is available to other Moroccan customers as well. Very significant, since it is a clear indication that ONHYM believe that more than 50 mmcfgd can be produced from Guercif - and, unlike us, they have access to all the available data.

Part 2.

🦖 Afriquia Gaz Agreement

* I am sure that this was signed a couple of weeks ago, as suggested here at the time, but announcement was delayed until there was clarity over the testing regulatory issues

* Afriquia is the leading commercial distributor of gas in Morocco. They know all the issues concerning trucking CNG around the country, and parent company Akwa has connections in high places – an excellent partner that will be of great help in securing all the necessary licences. I am sure there will be no need for additional fire engines nor anti-terrorist escorts.

* Not sure why some are confused over this - Predator IS selling at the wellhead – that's where the trucks load up with paid-for gas.

* 50 mmcfgd at a very conservative $12 per mcf gives $220 M annual sales. FDC believe that commercial risk has been greatly reduced, and assuming everything goes to plan, they have assigned just the MOU-Fan discovered assets a NPV of 64.4p per share, the Middle Sands an additional 78.3p per share. The current 9p suggests the market still thinks all this is high risk.

🦖 Drilling Programme.

*This drill positions have obviously continued to be optimised as further data is processed, hence the need for new EIAs.

* A little disappointing that there was no upfront payment associated with the GSA, and that drilling costs will come from T&T cash flow, with a consequent delay. Better than further dilution, of which there has been more than enough already.

* The reason MOU-3 shallow reservoirs were not appraised at time of drilling was not due to penny-pinching, but that the overpressured gas required the hole to be cased urgently. Not sure why the MOU-1 shallow sands were not tested at time of drilling - probably the reservoir potential was not recognised until after detailed NuTech evaluation of the logs, which was after necessary casing of the unstable borehole.

🦖 Oil

* There has been speculation about oil/condensates on the Guercif licences for years. Oil is a precursor of thermogenic gas, I am unsure if the unusually high local geothermal gradient will have left enough in a suitable state to be commercial. PRD will not be involved in oil exploitation, that is an additional bonus for an acquiror.

* Some possible confusion – the RNS states that they are looking at the potential for Jurassic source rock. This is not the same thing as the MOU-NE / Titanosaurus Jurassic carbonate reef, which is likely to be gas, not oil. There are a lot of other Jurassic strata to be investigated.

🦖 T & T

* Little information is publicly available, so I look forward to reading the Cory-Moruga CPR. I have already posted that PRD appears to have acquired quality assets very cheaply, so it is intriguing to read that this opportunity could be on the same scale as Morocco.

Part 1.

2 RNSs yesterday, then 200 posts while I was asleep. I've read through everything, good, bad, intelligent & stupid, and checked publicly-available reference material where necessary. My conclusions are for my own information, but I will also post them here for your interest or mockery. Some good stuff, some disappointing delays. I think to heap blame on PRD management is not fair, but I understand investors' frustrations. Many of the negatives (including many plainly untrue comments) have come from short-term speculators who have failed to acknowledge that they are following a high-risk strategy, and seek to blame others for their own failings, or else are seeking to drive the share price down. Clearly management credibility will have been strained by yet another delay, but I am sure they realise that they now have to deliver the goods. The assets are still there, and imo still exceptional.

🦖Rigless Testing Programme

* Obviously disappointing that there are further delays. The RNS made it clear that all was going ahead as planned, and as had been posted here two weeks ago, but the problem that occurred after mobilisation had started was not the fault of PRD management, so very unfair of so many here to claim that it is the case. Whether this was a genuine mis-communication between government departments or a malevolent 3rd-party spanner throw we will not know. Anyway, management know they have to get it right this time, and only 17 and two ½ trading days to January.

* Also a little disappointing that it appears that there will be less intervals tested – presumably this is a combination of lack of equipment as stated in the RNSs, together with time & cost saving. Management are presumably confident that they can produce more than enough gas from these horizons to fulfil initial contractual needs, and demonstrate likely overall flow rates and volumes.

🦖Licence Renewal

* There is either genuine misunderstanding or deliberate misinformation regarding licences – look at the posters involved to decide which. PRD has met all the obligations of the current licence – both financial & drilling. See pp.33 & 98 of the latest Prospectus - I see PT has very helpfully covered this in detail. The next regulatory steps would normally be to proceed to the First Extension Period, then an Exploitation Concession, for which an additional bond becomes payable. ONHYM have been very helpful in extending the Exploration Permit to give PRD more time to be ready for production – which would be the normal point at which an Exploitation Licence becomes necessary. In short - 5th February is NOT a deadline by which flow testing must be finished & reported or else PRD loses the Guercif licences.

OK, 2nd RNS today arrived late - cancel my above comment!

Now, I'm really curious - this appears to be the 'wellhead' agreement referred to in the last RNS. Is that the same as, or additional to, the 'industrial' agreement mentioned there as a prerequisite for the start of flow testing ? Have 2 MOU's been signed? - Super Cérame was widely flagged as the 'industrial' customer, and it was floating around the market, from whom I consider to be well-informed sources, that this was signed over two weeks ago. Maybe it was not felt necessary to RNS this first agreement, since it was already indicated as pretty much a done deal in the previous RNS. If these rumours were true, it would be reasonable to expect that flow testing has been ongoing for some time, given that 1. everything was said to be ready to go, and 2. mention of testing is conspicuous by its absence in today's RNS. I guess Paul might let us know one day.

Up to 50 mmcfgd is very good for one agreement. "Presumably" flow testing is underway.

😁

“It’s the nature of things that a very intelligent man working hard maybe gets three, four, five really good long-term opportunities of buying great companies at a cheap price,” he said. “It happens rarely.”

RIP, Charlie.

They don't have any money to do this yet - all this is conditional upon sale of the Egyptian assets. I am curious if they have any firm access agreements to the MEG for connecting their own pipeline. Clearly they don't have much more indigenous gas - I am also curious at what price and at what profit they think they can sell imported gas. Gas from Guercif will certainly be cheaper.