The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Jimmy
The priority should be the successful flow test of mou 1,2,3 and 4.
The main fan prospect is mapped over 68 sq km sitting above a shale dominated sequence.
I have full confidence that predator will successfully flow test the Moulouya fan deposit.
A successful outcome will be transformative for the company and its shareholders.
In a success case we could be subjected to a possible takeover. After all we are explorers, prove up and sell.
Incidentally, the zelten platform is charged by the deep shale base.
However to use pv72 cake metaphor, the neogene fan sequence is the icing on the cake. The cake is the unexplored deep trough. We cannot allow any takeover without attempting to prove up resources.
The zelten platform varies in porosity up to 40%. It’s reasonable that the A high-graded area totalling 55 sq. km identified as potentially leached based could deliver similar porosity.
Of course like you, I would prefer to use the revenue generated from the CNG and drill out the Jurassic prospect. However, I fear we will not get the opportunity.
Time will tell.
All the best.
the guercif jurassic bank is about to become the next hydrocarbon property hotspot.
it’s a jurassic porous carbonate platform development area of approximately 177 sq. km. a high-graded area totalling 55 sq. km identified as potentially leached based.
in the september 2021 predator presentation, pg compared the jurassic bank to the prolific zelten carbonate platform in libya.
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/09/29105657/webinar-presentation-website-version-28092021-corrections-15.40pm.pdf
lets take a look…
all part of the central atlantic magmatic province (camp).
a phase related directly with central atlantic rifting.
rift basins that have undergone uplift, compressional, and strike-slip phases.
basin architecture with horst, graben and half-graben structures.
deep troughs with structural highs and deep depressions.
deep major syn-sedimentary and strict slip faults controlling the positions of the troughs and platforms.
thick paleozoic shale basements.
the opening of the tethyan sea…causing a huge influx of sediments.
marine and lagoon environments dominated.
filled with continental co**** clastic deposits, sandstones, lacustrine beds and the emplacement of tholeitic basalts of the central atlantic magmatic province (camp).
leading to the deposition of a thick evaporite carbonate platform and subjected to dolomitization and leaching by groundwater though porous zones.
the gravity data shows that guercif jurassic bank has similar structural high ridges and depth to the zeltan platform.
it should be noted that the extension period is anticipated to include a commitment to drill at least one well to 2750m to test the jurassic potential.
it is reasonable to believe that guercif basin, which has barely been explored, has enormous potential reserves still waiting to be discovered and up to now…
we are merely scratching the surface.
imho
dyor
ROB mentioned geometry..
Indeed..
Four tight anticlines separated by large synclines
(depocenters) .
These are reactivations and rotations of existing anticlines .
These are formed from the deep Paleozoic basement.
Promoting the formation of Positive Flower structures.
Anticlinal axes are sigmoidal and arranged on echelon.
In other words stacked like ladders with great potential to preserve porosity and promote high flow rates.
Phase one of the great unfolding is now underway.
Yes we need a bigger boat.
DYOR
ROB mentioned the Guercif super basin.
A phase related directly with Central Atlantic rifting.
Resulting in graben and half-graben structures with shared similarities with North Sea discoveries.
All part of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP).
Igneous rocks associated with sedimentary rocks and the Atlantic Rift.
Concentrated at mantle hotspots.
Organic material incorporated into magmatic systems.
But also hydrocarbons formed by abiogenic processes.
Particularly surrounding natural gas formations and alkaline magmatism.
Numerous sedimentary basins created on both sides of the Atlantic.
From South Africa through the North Sea up into Norway on the Eastern margin and from Argentina to Canada on the western margin.
Not long to wait now…
It’s like a volcano that’s about to blow.
Prosperous new year to all
DYOR
While we wait for the test results from MOU-3… some folk may doubt the hydrocarbon charge and intensity of the Guercif sedimentary basin.
A few facts might help you stay cool and calm…
Magma driven hydrocarbon generation.
During the rifting and basin infill stage, Triassic and Jurassic formations were deposited.
Rifting of the Atlantic and the Central Atlantic magmatic province (CAMP), created numerous hydrocarbon sedimentary basins on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean….the result of huge volcanic outbursts.
The opening of the Western Tethyan sea…causing a huge influx of sediments into Guercif.
The Guilliz alkaline volcanic province, just 24 km north east of Guercif city. A globally alignment of volcanic centres, consisting of two major volcanoes and a few smaller satellites … controlled by major faults.
Alkaline magmas are melted at huge depths, tens of kilometres. Onshore alkaline magmatism occurred simultaneously with the huge influx of sediments.
All this volcanic activity can significantly promote the formation of prolific hydrocarbon organisms.
So we have a huge influx of sediments, composed of evaporate, clastic, carbonate and hydrocarbon bearing source rocks, covered over with a thick Neogene sequence.
All simultaeously heated over a large area. Add a few compressive phases and uplift of surrounding mountains.
All likely liberating massive volumes of gas and oil.
Pressure, volume and temperature , all controlled by major faults criss-crossing the basin.
Yes it’s huge, it’s all connected by major deep faults and it’s very hot in the kitchen.
Hope that helps.. cool you down.
“ The degree of one’s emotions varies with one’s knowledge of the facts - the less you know, the hotter you get” Bertrand Russell.
DYOR
Uplifted basins are usually rich hunting grounds for hydrocarbons. 80% of the world’s hydrocarbons come from uplifted basins.
Guercif is rich in oil prone source rocks.
Four petroleum systems identified …
suggesting the basin was charged with oil and the gas came later from the deep extensive network of faults.
When these deep seated faults cut through these source rocks they effectively become the generating kitchen feeding these carrier beds.
Migrating sideways and upwards from the degassing of the oils during uplift and erosion. Pressure, volume, temperature.
Shareholders are excitedly awaiting confirmation of CPR and prospectus… Michael Cain ready to blow the doors off and rightfully so….
However can I respectfully suggest that we are merely….scratching the surface.
DYOR
It’s a great shame that GRH has decided to step away from this bb.
No private investor has contributed more to bring the story of Predator oil and Gas to the wider investor community.
The fact that he has a public record of high achievement and is willing to share his knowledge and insight freely is all the more remarkable.
IMHO is a man of the highest integrity motivated by the common good.
Something we should all aspire to.
Last year I posted the following when he stepped away…..
RE: Unbelievable Opportunity!
12 Jul 2022 14:31
What do you REALLY know?
The question EVERYONE should ask but staggeringly few do.
Many are familiar with the Pareto principle of distribution the 80/20 rule. Some prefer to call it the law of the VITAL FEW.
You see when it comes to HIGH performance the rule is closer to 97/3.
Which simply means 97% of people get it WRONG.
So readers, when someone shares information...knowledge obtained from investigation, study, or instruction,
intelligence, news, facts and data and in some cases openly share and demonstrate a career of HIGH PERFORMANCE, one should sit up and take note.
DYOR
The human eye is made of many layers we see through. Sadly, it is no help in filtering through the heaps of verbiage posted here.
There is a fundamental difference between seeing and recognising. The latter requires enquiring, learning through investigation, experience, research.
How else can one withstand the barrage of negative sentiment, opinion and doubt?
Success requires extraordinary conviction and perseverance.
To make generational wealth you need to bet big before the herd. The majority must be wrong.
Often you are the lone wolf…
Few have the discernment.
Ever wondered why we are called Predator?
DYOR
Following this momentous week I’m reminded of the following statement PG made a few years ago….
“This is the best prospect I’ve ever seen in 44 years in the business and that’s because of it’s commercial attractiveness, it’s cheap drilling, it’s geology first and foremost and I think I’m in a position to say that because I’ve been involved in Libya, I’ve been involved in Argentina, I’ve been involved in Colombia, I’ve been involved in Abu Dhabi over 44 years and I have never ever seen anything where I can spend two and a half million dollars and get a TCF of gas two kilometres from a pipeline with good geology that I’m very, very comfortable with and that’s why I’m a 20 percent shareholder…this is a fantastic opportunity, it’s risk reward is unbeatable.”
I think 1TCF will ultimately prove conservative. However, please remember this is dry gas that has undergone phase separation.
Pressure, temperature and volume involving thermal degradation and cracking of organic oil prone source rock.
This suggests Guercif was charged with oil and the gas came later from the deep kitchen. Migrating upwards and sideways and from the degassing of the oils during uplift and erosion.
This separation of gas from liquid should mean 1TCF producing 1 billion barrels of oil.
Over to you ….. TITANOSAURUS.
On a side note, I’ve developed a curious case of itchy right palm. …I kid you not.
ATB
GLA
DYOR
GRH It’s a honour and pleasure for you to tweet my posts.
Personally I try to avoid social media. Begin ahead of the herd sometimes invites the social push back experienced by yourself and others on here.
It is fellow “Zulus “ like you that encouraged me to share my “follow my nose research” about Guercif. Begin proven right in the long term will bring its financial rewards and I sincerely hope many will benefit.
You don’t make real money being part of the herd.
Don’t be late to the party Guys.
GLA
DYOR
Thank you Bob,
The key paragraph…..”When these deep seated faults cut through these source rocks they effectively become the generating kitchen feeding these carrier beds, with potentially great energy.”
What marks out the enormous potential was the location of the deep seated faults feeding the graben trough we are prospecting. They are graben-boundary faults ... the conduits for charging into the carrier beds.
These graben -boundary facts are the Holy grail of petroleum prospecting.
Mou-1 de-risked and proved the first boundary fault and today is the confirmation that it connects across the graben.
Many thanks to Paul ,Lonny and the team.
GLA
DYOR
Predator CNG strategy for Morocco and the Macro outlook.
Guercif, a “once-in-a-life time” opportunity in Morocco.
The proxy war between Russia and Ukraine has ended the cheap energy era. The U.S. trade and financial sanctions are locking in the UK/Europe to dependency on U.S. exports of LNG.
In Quarter 4 2022, LNG volumes from the US to the UK have increased nearly fivefold on Quarter 4 2021. The US supplied over two-thirds of the UK’s LNG imports, their highest proportion to date. LNG imports from Qatar and Peru fell by a fifth, as the US dominates the UK share.
The Buy-American policy has pushed the UK/ Europe to pay as much as seven times more for its gas from the U.S, LGN suppliers, and to spend a reported $5 billion on expanding port capacity – that will not even be available for years.
The head of the International energy agency recently made a statement that Europe would be out of trouble in 3 years. A huge amount of LNG was coming at the end of 2025. That figure was the equivalent of 350 million tons of LNG.
The total global production of LNG is around 390 million tons. Pure fantasy. Friends, this is not going to happen.
The UK and Europe will be in trouble for decades.
Global demand for LNG has been growing at 7% annually over the last five years. Total global energy demand is expected to grow over 50% in the next 25 years.
In the meantime, American gas companies are gearing up to become global gas companies. The global market price is much higher than current US domestic prices, typically 3-6 dollars mmbtu compared to 15-30 mmbtu.
The margins are extremely profitable but this extra capacity will only replace Russian gas.
Higher prices for energy are locked in which has huge implications for the global south and, in particular, Africa. Predator’s capital-light phased development approach offers not only an intuitive low-cost gas solution for Morocco economy, but is potentially transformative for its loyal shareholders.
Predator is also playing the long game in Ireland, waiting for the possible acquisition of the Corrib gas field by an international LNG player, together with the floating storage and re-gasification LNG import facility, MAG Mell.
The next few months will be transformative for our company.
Strategies can change, and “Prediction is difficult – particularly when it involves the future”. Twain.
The one prediction I can make is that we will not be giving our assets away cheaply.
DYOR
I’ve long stated the key to unlocking the hydrocarbons in Guercif is understanding the underlying deep seated fault systems in this complex sedimentary basin.
Whilst it’s understood that faults and carrier beds are petroleum migration pathways - the bridges between source rocks and traps - what marks out Guercif is their deeply seated depth.
These deep seated faults cut through ALL the four petroleum systems identified in the Guercif basin, namely the Paleozoic, Triassic, Jurassic and Tertiary.
When these deep seated faults cut through these source rocks they effectively become the generating kitchen feeding these carrier beds, with potentially great energy.
In the recent presentation PG stated “In MOU-1 there’s a major fault up against the reservoirs of the shallow section that has charged everything with dry gas. In MOU-2 all the faults terminate below this fantastic seal so everything should be trapped underneath the seal at our target level….clearly the gas is trapped right below this thick seal in these bright amplitude events covering over 30-40km2. That’s a fantastic opportunity”
There are fifteen major faults crossing the basin like a mosaic and it is for this reason I echo GRH’s words when he said recently ..
“I am witnessing... in real time.. the unfurling of one of THE great hydrocarbon fields of the world.”
Indeed we are.
DYOR
PrivateTesla
The debris flow is above our target. Due to gravity/slope/trough conditions this has formed a slump, forming a sticky thick cap which we are struggling to drill past. Almost like a mud slide. I’m confident this won’t have any bearing on our target prospect once we drill through . Mou-1 sits higher up the slope so didn’t encounter the same issues. Mou-2 sits 8kms down into the trough.
Caterham7 referenced Fig 5 on the cpr2022. You can clearly see the trough and direction of turbidite channel systems that feed into the basin from the GRF-1/MSD-1 High . MOU-1 sit close to GRF-1. These channel systems are made up of different fancies that flow along the channels and slopes.
Figure 8 shows the Correlation between MOU-1 & MOU-2. Also see Figure 10 MOU-2 Deep water Mid-Late Tortonian target sands, the slope is clearly highlighted .
So instead of carrying dry turbinate sands/fancies over our targets, easy drilling, we have thick muddy slumps. The accumulation of these slumps and the thickness will vary upslope.
Prediator faced with delays informed the market and we are dealing with the predicted fallout.
My opinion is unchanged, all to play for with potential huge upside because the mud performs an excellent seal.
Aimho
DYOR, GLA
A few thoughts…
It now seems we are not dealing here with a conventional submarine fan Model.
The two major faults that sandwich the fan system have caused considerable uplift. The Moulouya fan area sits around an arc of positive anomalies. It seems now the sloping may have caused the flow of debris to form a slump or series of slumps over the target traps.
The thickness of the slumps may vary across the Fan area. They generally form excellent seals so the potential resources remain unchanged.
Interesting week ahead.
GLA
Guercif basin has undergone considerable uplift and infill. 80% of the worlds hydrocarbons come from uplifted sedimentary basins. They can contain both substantial gas and oil fields.
I believe the Moulouya fan is a gas cap formed from this process. Oil cracking at high temperature which has migrated under pressure.
There is every possibility we will find more gas but we will also find oil.
The Moulouya fan area sits between two major faults. Both have undergone considerable uplift causing a deep overlay of Neogene-Quaternary sediment forming the deepest sequence in the basin.
MOU-2 will test the core of the MOU Fan.
If all goes to plan I expect Michael Cain to blow the bloody doors off !
However I’ll stand against the consensus here from the recent RNS’s and expect and hope MOU-3 to be the next well in the drilling sequence. This will test a 35km² area within a larger Jurassic oil prospect.
The fault to the south of MOU-2 is the deepest and longest in the basin. It runs NE-SW, follows generally the Moulouya river and cuts through the prospect MOU- NE, now designated MOU-3. The Triassic geological section of the basin which typically lays around 3,000m deep, outcrops to the surface along this fault. I think this is significant.
The West desperately wants access to these oil and gas reserves.
Exciting times for Predator Oil and Gas.
All the best for 2023.