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Guercif Basin
There have been numerous independent studies over the years regarding the Guercif Basin and the surrounding geology. To name just a few….Benzaquen, Bernini, Zizi, Gomez, Morel, Krjjgsman, Capella, Tulbure, Sani, Nassili, Colo, Laville and Fedan, Brede, Sabaoui, Frizon de Lamotte, Lepretre, Perroddon, Aminzadeh, Berneni, Bouzian, Gelati, Colletta, Missenard, Duggun.
We have CRP, gravity, aeromagnetic, geophysical, geochemical, seismic, exploration wells, stratigraphic wells, and our own Mou 1 drill data and presentations. Also numerous contributions of excellent research from our own bb members.
But…don’t believe anything. DYOR.
Then consider things on a scale of probability.
I continue to add and hold.
Merry Christmas and a happy, prosperous new year to all.
Great post GRH.
This is simply OFF the scale. Too big to totally comprehend.
7,000 SQ KM filled by Tortonian to Quaternary sediments with thicknesses locally in excess of 2000 m (Colletta, 1977).
Sediments were settled in different environments: continental, lagoon and marine.
There are four tight anti- clines (ridges) separated by large synclines (depocenters). They are affected by major faults.
NE-SW (he most dominant one),follows generally the Moulouya river.,
and E-W grabens /half grabens and horsts controlled by NE-SW and E-W faults.
These acted as significant synsedimentary slip faults, reaching the Paleozoic basement .
The NW-SE faults can be interpreted as synsedimentary Jurassic transverse strike-slip normal faults.
Readers should sit down and look up sysedimentary growth faults.
Crikey, Preditor m/cap 14m.
Let the good times roll !!!!
DYOR
GLA
The Zulu Principle..Jim Slater
“ I gave this book it’s title after my wife read a four page article on Zulus in Reader’s Digest. If she had then borrowed all the available books on the subject from the local library and read them carefully, she would have known more about Zulus than most people in Surrey. If she had subsequently visted South Africa, lived for six months in a Zulu Kraal and studied all the available literature on Zulus at a South African University , she would have become one of the leading authorities in Great Britain and possibly the world. The key point is that the history of Zulus and their habits and customs today is a clearly defined and narrow area of knowledge into which my wife would have invested a disproportionate amount of time and effort, with the result that she would have become an acknowledged expert. The study of this noble people might not have been profitable, but there are many other specialised subjects that would have been rewarding financially. “
Read this has a young man and it's been my guiding principal ever since.
Says it all really about defined and narrow research-based knowledge.
Regards
Seabright
Hydrocarbon generation intensity and sedimentary geology. The most important geochemical factor to estimate large and middle gas fields. NOTHING ELSE MATTERS.
The Anchois discovery is in Tertiary-aged turbidite reservoir.
Each turbidite channel is unique, complex and difficult to analyse, even with 3d seismic. High sandy channels are the holy grail. Seismic can identify their stacking patterns and fan structures but exact drill location remains difficult. Offshore the investment required is eye watering expensive and risky but the rewards can be huge, think Gulf of Mexico and West Africa.
The very nature of these channels mean they are trap and seal associations. Not continuous, but when found can be highly stacked and clustered.
Onshore they are often found in various sub basins and depressions. Turbidite sequences characterise by alluvial fan settings. Ring any bells ????
So we have a complex sedimentary basin. Think multi layer with deep channels pushed together. The geology is NOT straight forward, the strata is not at equal depths. The goal is to find the sedimentary Turbidite sand structures. If you check the historic Well data across the licence area it gives us clues.
We will relinquish one of the four permit areas. The middle two areas are a no brainer to keep. The question is which of the two outside permits we choose. Which brings me on to the mysterious opportunity to compete an existing well for gas production in another basin in Morocco.
This is pure best guess.
The basin is probably the Taourirt basin which lies partly within our licence. In particular the potash Well PG3. Why ?? The Well was drilled to a depth of 600m. The interesting part is it penetrated the Tortonian succession around 150m from the surface and continued to the full Well depth of 600m. Now contrast that with Mou -1 and the primary target being the mid to late tortonian section , penetrated at 1385m. Go figure. There will be challenges but numerous opportunities across our basin.
All my opinion. I could be wrong.
DYOR
GLA
The Guercif Bain is a complex sedimentary basin akin to a junction point of subsurface fault systems and networks This is important to understand for the potential fluid draining, migration, storage , locations and directions of hydrocarbons.
The Guercif basin is subdivided into a western domain starting from the Terni Mazzgout and an eastern domain extending towards the High Plateaus. The central point that separates the two structural domains being the BMD: Bou Msaad Diapir. The folded middle atlas to the south west and the Bni Snassene belt to the north east, complete the structural domain .
From the CPR pathfinder report 2012 Page 9, which shows the map and location of the previous wells,… There are four oil exploration wells and several stratigraphic wells drilled on the block of permits to date (see Figure 3). The TAF-1 and TAF-2 wells were drilled by BRPM for coal exploration in the 1950s. Other shallow wells, such as PG-1 -2 and -3, were drilled for potash exploration. Oil drilling commenced in 1972 when Elf drilled GRF-1 followed by Phillips who drilled TAF-1X in 1979. MSD-1 and KDH-1 were drilled by ONAREP (now ONHYM) in the 1980’s.
A re-examination of the wireline logs by TransAtlantic in wells with Miocene and Upper
Jurassic sands suggested that several gas sands may have been missed in these wells.
It is my belief that GRF-1, MSD-1, TAF-1X and KDH-1 and Mou-1 are located close to FOUR major faults that are CONNECTED ( Imagine the branches of a tree) to each other and are deeply seated to a depth of 7km.
The most interesting fault is the fault that runs though the BMD: Boy Msaad Diapir. This major fault is the trunk that feeds the branches connecting the Well areas mentioned in the previous paragraph. It’s the deepest fault extending to 7kms deep and largely follows the Moulouya river from the Bourached region to the Bni Snassene belt. If I was to guess it would extend to approx 100km in length.
In total there are FIFTEEN major faults crossing the structural domain area.
The potential for hydrocarbons are tremendous.
All that is required is patience.
DYOR GLA
Hydrocarbon generation intensity /energy is the most important geochemical factor to estimate large and middle gas fields. It is important understand this and remember the FOCUS should be on the probability whether traps can be charged.
FOUR petroleum systems were identified in the Guercif Basin, Paleozoic, Triassic, Jurassic and Tertiary Petroleum systems.
In 2020 a research paper was released in order to understand the complexities of the sedimentary Guercif basin in relation to hydrocarbon systems.
All existing geological data, seismic, gravity and magnetic were processed.
It defines the main faults directions, lengths, dip directions and depths. Down to 7km in places.
Guercif Basin is affected by several major faults elongated in three main trends: NE-SW, E-W and NW-SE.
.
A NEW subsurface structural map was established.
This recognised many faults already confirmed but found MAJOR new ones.
The established referential map reveals that the study area is subdivided into two different structural domains; a western one principally affected by NE-SW trending faults representing the northeastern extension of the Middle Atlas Fault Zone, and an eastern domain belonging to the stable eastern Meseta and characterised in general by large E-W trending faults.
Shortly after this paper was released ConocoPhillips acquires the adjacent license to Guercif.
Also
From the RNS 19 July. Evaluate opportunity to compete an existing well for gas production in another basin in Morocco.
Related to MOU- 1 ? or following the structural map faults into another basin ?
DYOR
GLA
From the RNS 19th Jul
MOU-1 validated the pre-drill seismic "bright spot" anomaly.
MOU-1 will help calibrate MOU-4 Target seismic "bright spots" to adjust a final well location to appraise the MOU-1 drilling results.
Preliminary seismic re-correlation of the TGB-2 objective to the MOU-4 Target confirms that MOU-1 successfully proved up and substantially de-risked the MOU-4 Target.
Ok so this is the interesting fact about seismic bright spots.
A regional gas-saturated sand body slows the wave front to create a seismic bright spot, and processing determines the depth to the sands. Seismic Bright spots do not indicate presence of oil.
However Magnetic Bright spots do. A zone of magnetically - altered minerals directly above a regional hydrocarbon deposit (whether oil or gas) is detectable from the air as a Magnetic bright spot. A surface map of the MBA reveals the location of the oil or gas deposit, although its depth is not indicated.
From the CPR report 2012..
TransAtlantic flew an aero gravity and magnetics survey (10,000 km) over the area in 2006 and carried out geochemical sampling coincident with surface and subsurface structures.
Two micro-seepage surveys were carried out by Geo-Microbial Technologies in 2006 and 2007. A total of 32 traverses were carried out over a 2500km2 area and 731 soil samples were analysed in 2006 and 2007.
SLR
Pathfinder Energy Maghreb Plc/finnCap Limited 11 SLR 501.00269.0001 CPR Morocco May 2012
The results of the 2006-07 surveys (Geo-Microbial Technologies Inc, March/April 2007) identify several hydrocarbon types in the Guercif basin: thermogenic dry gas and some condensate around the GRF-1 well; oil and gas/condensate around the MSD-1 well, over the Jezira anticline and in southwest; and oil in all other anomalies. Particularly interesting is the abundant seepage in a large area around the TAF-1X well which appears to be oil rather than gas. The anomalies cover a larger area and have higher oil concentrations than the anomalies elsewhere. These surveys confirm there is an active hydrocarbon source system in the basin.
Results:
TransAtlantic’s regional analysis yielded a number of large untested surface anticlines (up to 25 km in length) with associated surface geochemical anomalies. Its work confirmed the presence of source and reservoir rocks, seals and traps. TransAtlantic attempted to analyze the timing of oil maturation versus migration and trapping. In addition, it believed that two of the four wells drilled appeared to have missed pay opportunities.
It’s imho it’s beyond ANY doubt we have GAS. Huge amounts . We also have oil , how much is the question.
Special thanks to GRH, steadfast in his belief and knowledge, we owe you much sir.
DYOR
GLA
This from Dietmar (Deet) Schumacher1 and Luigi Clavareau, 2014
Geochemical Exploration in Deserts of North Africa and Middle East: Strategies, Methods, and Exploration Case Histories*
and Strategies for Success.
https://www.searchanddiscovery.com/documents/2014/80430schumacher/ndx_schumacher.pdf
DYOR
GLA
GRH referenced Dietmar Schumacher...
in his excellent Research Paper as presented in 2010 to The Indonesian Petroleum Symposium,
the correlation between hydrocarbon evidence at surface and success in finding commercial hydrocarbons below.
Here it is, well worth the read.
https://www.ane.na/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/schumacher-seismic.pdf
DYOR
GLA
Would also add the following for better understanding,
Gas moves from the source to the reservoir /trap/fault and then migrates .
A criterion to determine which gases are indigenous (not migrated) is the geochemical correlation of maturity parameters of the gas and the environment at which the natural gas has been found (Schoell, 1983).
DYOR
GLA
Hi Blackdogtaff,
Gas needs carrier beds to migrate. The biggest problem for E&P companies is that many carrier beds are below seismic resolution.
Seismic’s should be treated as models not data. Drilling gives us the data.
Migration cannot continue unless the trap is filled to capacity or leak/spill point.
Mass balance calculations suggest that up to 10% of a gas generated in a particular reservoir may undergo vertical or lateral migration (Barker, 1979).
Hope that helps
DYOR
GLA
The Elephant in the kitchen … thermogenic gas migration from an active hydrocarbon generating system.
From the RNs issued on the 6th July
“ evidence of thermogenic gas migration supports in this part of the Guercif Basin the pre-drill geological interpretation for a deep gas "kitchen" connected to shallower reservoirs by large faults.”
This is significant and missed by most investors …Why ? You need to understand the difference between biogenic and thermogenic gas.
Biogenic hydrocarbon gases are those produced as a direct consequence of bacterial activity and are usually generated in shallower depths .Typically, generation of biogenic gas is with fine-grained sediment due to its characteristically higher initial organic content
Thermogenic gas migration usually occurs at depths exceeding 1,000m ( Floodgate and Judd 1992)
These hydrocarbon gases are produced from higher temperature and pressure and involves thermal degradation and cracking of organic matter(Schoell, 1988).
This can result in considerable upward migration of the gas.
Fault related structures serve as conduits for migration of thermogenic gas. In common with other MAJOR thermogenic gas generation areas GUERCIF shares the same features such as Faults, vents , seeps, diapirs, and mud volcanoes.
This was referenced on the CPR pathfinder report 2012 page 16.
“Geochemical analyses indicate thermogenic gas reaching the surface in areas of thick Neogene sediments suggesting that salt diapirism and recent Rif tectonics have resulted in some seepage to the surface. This confirms an active hydrocarbon generating system in the area.”
Some of it buried down to at least 7kms.
Hydrocarbon generation intensity /energy is the most important geochemical factor to estimate large and middle gas fields.
DYOR
GLA
Quite possibly.
Thanks Wacky, GRH for the usual spot on advice.
This sell off is something I’ll be talking about for years. WOW.
Just goes to show the difference between information and KNOWLEDGE.
Which is why investing in the stock market is the
ULTIMATE ZERO GAME
Please do the research
GLA
GRH, spot on again.
I would recommend every investor to read SEVERAL times the annual report year ended 31 December 2020 page 4, Morocco.
Please pay particular attention to Why MOU-1 location was selected
The best and high estimate for MOU-2 are 393 and 944 BCF respectively based on a Competent Persons Report by SLR Consulting (Ireland) Ltd. completed in December 2020.
The possibility of an extensive lower Jurassic thermogenic gas kitchen - now PROVEN.
The identification of a new MOU4 Prospect covering 31.7km2. (HUGE)
Then read from todays regulatory RNS announcement
“most importantly de-risked the pathway required for dry gas from a thermogenic origin to charge the primary targets in a prospective area of over 100 km². MOU-1 therefore further enhanced the CPR prospective gas resources assigned to the proposed MOU-2 and MOU-4 drilling targets whilst adding some additional potential shallow targets that had previously not been considered. “
It’s worth repeating this again Prospective area of over 100 km².
DYOR
Forward plans
The occurrence of good gas shows in MOU-1 with evidence of thermogenic gas migration supports in this part of the Guercif Basin the pre-drill geological interpretation for a deep gas "kitchen" connected to shallower reservoirs by large faults.
The biggest problem is that many carrier beds are often below seismic resolution.
Migration cannot continue unless the trap is filled to "capacity".
DYOR
Think we can bury our heads in the sand and hope that pigs really can fly but the reality is the total switch to renewable’s is going to be eye watering expensive. Which is why we need sensible transition energy policy and the very reason I’m invested here.
From the report…
Once economic reality becomes undeniable, there will be a huge lobby to pass on the full costs of offshore wind to either electricity consumers or taxpayers. The obvious instrument is carbon taxation, but the increase required would be very large, and the economic harm would be politically contentious to say the least. Vast bailouts to an industry that has misrepresented its economics, whether knowingly or not, will be extremely unpopular. A government trapped between intense political opposition and the ever-widening ramifications of the financial collapse of the offshore wind sector will behave in ways that cannot be predicted confidently, but investors in renewables should be very nervous.
The elephant in the room.....those who can't pay, won't pay.
https://scotlandagainstspin.org/2020/10/wind-industry-claims-scorched-wind-power-costs-are-increasing-not-decreasing-stt/
Hi Guys, as we head in to the weekend let’s remember any minute now our ship, Predator, is coming in and potentially changing all our lives. This is a quote from our leader and captain PG talking to Malcy back in October 2020. Pour yourself a glass of your finest and play ‘Waiting For My Real Life to Begin’ by Colin Hay. GLA
Malcolm Graham-Wood talks to Paul Griffiths of Predator Oil & Gas Oct7, 2020
“This is the best prospect I’ve ever seen in 44 years in the business and that’s because of it’s commercial attractiveness, it’s cheap drilling, it’s geology first and foremost and I think I’m in a position to say that because I’ve been involved in Libya, I’ve been involved in Argentina, I’ve been involved in Colombia, I’ve been involved in Abu Dhabi over 44 years and I have never ever seen anything where I can spend two and a half million dollars and get a TCF of gas two kilometres from a pipeline with good geology that I’m very, very comfortable with and that’s why I’m a 20 percent shareholder…this is a fantastic opportunity, it’s risk reward is unbeatable.”
Morocco and Ireland opportunity
Following on from my first post highlighting ConocoPhillips need to deliver low-greenhouse-gas affordable energy …
Consider the AGGRESSIVE push toward low carbon energy transition that is happening WORLDWIDE….
This from PRD rns 30 June 2020
Paul Griffiths, Chief Executive of Predator, commented:
"Guercif is pivotal to the Company in terms of developing a gas business utilising the excellent infrastructure that exists in Morocco…. We have used lockdown to define additional Guercif prospectivity and to review potential LNG markets suitable for FSRU penetration …
And some wider market context…
KISTOS PLC Acquisition of Tulip Oil Netherlands B.V. for €222.75 million ..
In line with one of the key objectives of Kistos’ acquisition strategy set out in the November 2020 Admission Document, that acquisitions should play a role in energy transition ….
Gas is a commodity and, accordingly, the gas market is a global one with gas being transported around the world, primarily in the form of LNG. Europe remains a net importer of natural gas with imports both in the form of LNG cargoes and non-liquified product from around the world…..
And
Europe currently remains energy dependent and whilst longer-term competition to gas may come from solar, wind, biomass and other green energy sources it is, in the Directors’ view, unlikely that the market for low carbon gas is likely to be impacted materially.
DYOR
GLA