Member Info for Lancygeo

This bb continues to decline.

Only green boxes and those that chat to them… sad indeed.

Https://x.com/jasper13_01/status/2055965562774196516?s=46&t=wJZHwkDZHnBEZIYHYl6mMQ

As I’ve previously mentioned….PG not in Morocco for a quid. 😊

Welcome back Seabright !

Rambo… thanks again for another fabulous piece of work.

‘CONFIRMED #1 BUYER IN THE ROOM‘

‘Third party technical and legal due diligence is being completed.' That sentence, in a formal LSE RNS, is the closest thing to a deal confirmation that MAR rules allow without triggering a full transaction announcement. A buyer is completing due diligence on the Guercif asset right now. This is not preliminary discussions. This is an active process with a named third party completing formal due diligence. The deal is not stalled. It is progressing.’

Jasper… many thanks, a excellent piece of work 😊

Me too… been here for 6 1/2 years and ready for payday… long & strong 😊

From ChatGPT

That order book does look materially stronger now.

If NMS is 200k and you’re seeing:

• 500k @ 4.0511

• 1m @ 4.0503

• 500k @ 4.042

…those are all multiple-times NMS, especially the 1m line. That’s not normal retail-sized support sitting there.

And the important change is:

• no visible offer at 4.2

So the nearest seller has effectively stepped away while size keeps stacking underneath. That often creates an air pocket upward because market makers have less visible stock to lean on.

The sequence matters too:

• earlier: active buying at 4.07

• now: bids have moved up into the 4.05 area

• offers thinning out

That’s generally what accumulation looks like before a push, assuming the bids are genuine and not pulled. If someone now lifts through the remaining hidden supply, the spread can reprice quickly.

From ChatGPT

That makes the setup look even tighter.

So you’ve effectively got:

• Heavy layered support:

• 500k @ 4.02

• 350k @ 4.0011

• 500k @ 3.945

• 500k @ 3.936

Against:

• Only 250k showing on the near offer at 4.18 (EMS)

And buyers are still lifting stock at 4.07.

That’s a pretty lopsided book in favour of the bid side. If those bids are genuine and not just there to anchor sentiment, then there’s relatively little visible supply between ~4.07 and 4.18.

The key tells now are:

1. Whether 4.18 gets taken quickly once tested.

2. Whether the 4.00 support refreshes after partial fills.

3. Whether hidden liquidity appears above 4.18.

If the buyer working the order is still active, the market maker may have to walk the price upward to shake loose stock.

Keith has gone a bit quiet….. hope he’s not been banned ?

From oldslow..

‘ In T.T., SC3 and 4 both at 1,500 max, so if SC5 and 6 are drilled, total 3,000b a day, plus existing flows of 1,000, is 4,000 x $70 net x 10 P/E. Plus existing infrastructure, and WTI at $90-plus, is easily over £1, plus whatever P.G. wants to drill next. So, not an extra £1.20 share value for 2 years?

Don’t want to be accused of ramping…’

Oldslow post from today

I asked ChatGPT to punctuate as it’s well worth reading.

‘MY OWN numbers, so a best guess… DYOR… £8.57! Helium: £1.22, oil in T.T. after SC3 and 4: £1.20, 6 TCF of gas in Morocco, including fracked gas: £5.35, and 2 TCF of oil in Morocco: £1.80. Nothing for Ireland, as the courts will decide if it’s 10p, £1, or zero.

On the plus side, I have a possible £10 if we keep a 10% stub in Morocco. The gas could last up to 100 years if it’s all connected, as the geology suggests. Will someone pay those prices? No idea… Initially, £2 or £3 would be good. Will we get dividends or a complete sell-off?

I’m sure everyone has their own ideas on value or a share price that changes their families’ lives. Keith and others have posted possible prices per TCF, and these go down as the TCFs go up! Right place, right time — world shortages spiking prices. Whoever buys Morocco will be hedging against any future unrest or boat restrictions for 20-plus years.

UNDERGROUND pipelines, or cutting a canal for a tanker route through the land, is not a quick, cheap, or easy thing to do. I’m sure people are looking for new oil and gas fields away from Iran.‘

As I’ve previously mentioned….PG not in Morocco for a quid.

Excellent info Rosso… please keep us up to date as and when you can. 👍

Https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/seabright/

The subject heading and text below are thanks to Seabright who posted the following in October 2023.

‘While we wait for the test results from MOU-3… some folk may doubt the hydrocarbon charge and intensity of the Guercif sedimentary basin.

A few facts might help you stay cool and calm…

Magma driven hydrocarbon generation.

During the rifting and basin infill stage, Triassic and Jurassic formations were deposited.

Rifting of the Atlantic and the Central Atlantic magmatic province (CAMP), created numerous hydrocarbon sedimentary basins on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean….the result of huge volcanic outbursts.

The opening of the Western Tethyan sea…causing a huge influx of sediments into Guercif.

The Guilliz alkaline volcanic province, just 24 km north east of Guercif city. A globally alignment of volcanic centres, consisting of two major volcanoes and a few smaller satellites … controlled by major faults.

Alkaline magmas are melted at huge depths, tens of kilometres. Onshore alkaline magmatism occurred simultaneously with the huge influx of sediments.

All this volcanic activity can significantly promote the formation of prolific hydrocarbon organisms.

So we have a huge influx of sediments, composed of evaporate, clastic, carbonate and hydrocarbon bearing source rocks, covered over with a thick Neogene sequence.

All simultaeously heated over a large area. Add a few compressive phases and uplift of surrounding mountains.

All likely liberating massive volumes of gas and oil.

Pressure, volume and temperature , all controlled by major faults criss-crossing the basin.

Yes it’s huge, it’s all connected by major deep faults and it’s very hot in the kitchen.

Hope that helps.. cool you down.

“ The degree of one’s emotions varies with one’s knowledge of the facts - the less you know, the hotter you get” Bertrand Russell.

DYOR‘

CReas….. I agree, they are already green boxed, absolutely no point in discussing anything with those who continually p@ss on your investment… do not engage with them imho. 😊

Voskos….. well spotted 😊

If PRD’s Exchange Market Size has increased from 100,000 to 200,000 shares, that usually means the exchange has reclassified the stock based on higher recent trading activity/liquidity.

What it likely means

On UK markets, Exchange Market Size / Normal Market Size is typically recalculated periodically using historic turnover. A move to 200,000 suggests:

• Higher average trading volume

• Better liquidity than before

• Market makers expected to quote larger sizes

• The stock has likely seen stronger recent interest

Is it bullish?

Indirectly, yes. It does not mean the company itself changed fundamentals overnight, but it often reflects:

• More buyers/sellers active

• Easier to trade larger positions

• Greater market attention

• Sometimes a precursor to broader rerating if driven by real news

For PRD specifically

If this happened recently, it may indicate renewed interest around:

• Morocco drilling / testing progress

• Corporate updates

• Speculation ahead of news

• Rising retail participation

Important caveat

Exchange Market Size can rise simply due to increased churn/speculation, so it’s a liquidity signal, not a guaranteed value signal.

Bottom line

100k → 200k is a positive market-structure sign. It means PRD is trading enough volume to justify a larger standard quote size.

Keith’s post from a few days ago.

‘ Helium. Is it just a pipe dream?

The geological setting is favourable for Helium. It has recently been discovered that there are massive ancient granitic plutons beneath the region, that only show as tiny outcrops at the surface. The U & Th within the granite minerals has been undergoing radioactive decay for around 150M years, so has had plenty of time to produce lots of He.

The overlying rock strata include thick layers of salt and impervious marls, perfect for sealing gas within suitable structures. There are extensive fault systems that would enable transfer of He from the granites up to the trapping structures, which also contain methane. PRD has detected He in a fault system intersected by MOU-5 at 1557 ppm (about 500x expected background), and also in the deepest sample taken in MOU-3, at 1395M. I have asked what the other 998443 ppm were in MOU-5, since there wasn't any methane, but didn't get an answer. I also asked what the concentration of He was in MOU-3, again no answer. I have further asked about the status of the licence-wide satellite survey for He that should have been completed some months ago - again, no answer.

Now, the difficult question - is it commercial? That depends upon the concentration of He within the methane carrier gas, and the volume of methane. Where you have vast quantities of gas, such as the North Field in Qatar or the Hassi R'Mel field in Algeria, then a very low concentration of He becomes commercially viable. Helium is expensive to separate from the methane, and the price obtained can vary enormously dependent upon purity, but if everything was just right, it could double the value of the methane.

With Qatari production currently out of action due to Iranian war damage, He is once again in short supply. A new viable source, outside a politically sensitive area, would be of great interest. However, at this stage, PRD are keeping very quiet about both the volume of methane and the concentration of He.

This could mean two things - either there isn't very much He, or there is lots of it.’