Member Info for Lancygeo

Shown below a post below thanks to Seabright from August 2024.

‘ Many moons ago, I posted about the elephant in the kitchen. Oil prone source rocks cracking at temperature, undergoing phase separation.

Pressure, temperature and volume involving thermal degradation and cracking of organic oil prone source rock. 

This suggests Guercif was charged with oil and the gas came later from the deep kitchen. Migrating upwards and sideways and from the degassing of the oils during uplift and erosion.

The on-site pressure-volume-temperature ("PVT"") laboratory will analyse samples and can determine among other things the organic matter, source rock, GOR, GLR, APL of the liquids and saturation pressure.

Now we have An updated ITR by Scorpion Geoscience Limited for the Jurassic MOU-5 structure gives net P50 upside Prospective Resources for gas of 5.916 TCF to the Company.

Again I will reiterate if the source rock is oil prone I’d expect the bulk of the accommodations to be oil . So the question then becomes where is the oil? If we have multiple TCF of Gas then I would expect to find billions of barrels of oil hidden somewhere close.

Maybe this is why multispectral satellite spectroscopy analysis will also be undertaken over the Guercif licence area.

Things take longer to happen than you think it will , then they happen faster than you thought they would…

Expect the spectacular.

IHMHO

DYOR’

Absolutely Keith…. the individual in question deserves everything they get (green boxed a long time ago)

Rambo… thanks again for the info 😊

Great info Rambo…. thanks for sharing 👍

In Paul’s words….

‘ That well will not currently be funded by the Company. And that’s all I will say. Um we are very very pleased with what’s going on in Morocco and how we’re progressing there. Contrary to what others may perceive we are the ones at the mine head or wellhead if you like and we know the progress we’ve made and we know that this is the most exciting project that we’ve had and continue to have for the Company and it will deliver uh perhaps sooner than some people would like to expect.’

Many thanks Keith…. as always excellent research and observations from your good self. 😊

I wish GRH still posted in here… I’d like to get an idea of how he sees the endgame, from his experience how does this play out… how should any potential deals be structured to protect the Company and its loyal shareholders to maximise their returns in the near/medium & long term ?

Any thoughts ?

That made me chuckle 🤣

Rambo… I agree an exit from Morocco could well be being negotiated atm.

I would hope that any deal would include stub equity that would substantially benefit from any future increases in gas/oil/helium prices.

Rambo…. that’s great info, many thanks 😊

BRV’s post below from August last year.

‘Morning all,

I'm just catching up on the bb from the last few days and thought that Jasper's excellent post from yesterday is definitely worthy of a re-post:

👓 Predator Oil and Gas - Updated Valuation & Success Outlook (post MOU-3 and MOU-6 planning) 👓

This document provides a revised success probability and valuation range for Predator Oil and Gas (PRD) based on recent updates including Paul Griffiths’ interview, the upcoming MOU-6 well, and strategic site developments.

🔎 Chances of Success – Technical and Strategic Summary

💥 Gas presence across multiple sands

✅ Confirmed

▫ MOU-3 showed gas inflow at 341m, 795m, and likely deeper

💥 Overpressure observed

✅ Positive

▫ 8% mud weight increase required to control the gas – live system

💥 Field not damaged

✅ Intact

▫ Structural issues in MOU-3 don’t impair overall potential

💥 Improved testing capability

✅ Enabled

▫ 3-4m perforating guns now available in Morocco

💥 New well design (MOU-6)

✅ Engineered

▫ Full gas-bearing interval targeted with robust casing plan

💥 New play confirmed at MOU-4

✅ Verified

▫ 21m of sand per NuTech adds upside

💥 Development partner secured

✅ Funded

▫ Funding for Stage 1 gas development in place

💥 Triassic salt-diapir play (MOU-5)

✅ Unique

▫ Potential gas storage and helium upside

🔎 Updated Success Probability Estimate

Stage ▶ Estimated Probability

Technical success ▶ 90%

Commercial Success (flow+development) ▶ 70%

Full monetisation (infrastructure tie-in) ▶ 60%

Farm-in / Exit event ▶ 50%

🔎 Updated Share Price Valuation (Michael Caine Model adjusted for 700m shares)

Scenario ▶ Recoverable Gas (Bcf) ▶ Total Valuation (£) ▶ Per Share Value (700m)

LOW ▶ 279 Bcf ▶ £1.08 billion ▶ 154p/share

MID (best estimate) ▶ 819 Bcf ▶ £3.18 billion ▶ 454p

HIGH ▶ 1823 Bcf ▶ £7.07 billion ▶ 1010p

🔎 Final Thought:

The convergence of successful MOU-3 results, imminent MOU-6 drilling, and third-party development backing significantly de-risks PRD’s valuation. A £10/share scenario, while still high end, now has a realistic path given confirmed gas in multiple zones, strong infrastructure proximity, and Morocco’s fiscal attractiveness.‘

In Paul’s words….

‘ That well will not currently be funded by the Company. And that’s all I will say. Um we are very very pleased with what’s going on in Morocco and how we’re progressing there. Contrary to what others may perceive we are the ones at the mine head or wellhead if you like and we know the progress we’ve made and we know that this is the most exciting project that we’ve had and continue to have for the Company and it will deliver uh perhaps sooner than some people would like to expect.’

The subject heading and the post below are from Keith.

Posted last week showing the 3 most likely scenarios going forward…. well worth another read imho.

‘There are three different scenarios.

1. Change of Operatorship. If PRD are selling all or a major part of the licences to a new entity that becomes Operator, then approval is needed from ONHYM, the Ministry of Energy & the Ministry of Finance. ONHYM has the contractual right to make a pre-emptive offer, which of course must equal or exceed the offer made by the third party.

2. Farm out. If PRD are selling a minority part of the licences to a new entity, but retaining Operatorship, then this does not need governmental approval, but ONHYM has the contractual right to make a pre-emptive offer for the stake up for transfer, again at an equal or greater price.

3. Exploitation Concession. If PRD want to submit an EC, which would be required in advance of a gas sales agreement of any kind from any part of the licence, they are required to submit an Appraisal Report to ONHYM. This is in effect the ITR which they received a month ago. It must contain the data from which it is concluded that a commercial discovery has been made, and a preliminary plan for commercialisation. ONHYM, PRD, and any relevant third party (Afriquia Gaz? Vivo?) must then collaborate to produce a definitive Development & Exploitation Plan. An EC is awarded on the basis of this plan. ONHYM has no contractual pre-emptive rights, since a share of the licence is not changing hands. However, as a newly commercial organisation, there is nothing to stop them from making PRD an offer for an increase in their share from their current 25%.

I suspect that it is Scenario #3 which is currently under negotiation. From Paul's comments in last week's interview, it is probable that the main points of a DEP have been agreed, perhaps there is still some discussion as to whether ONHYM wish to increase their current 25% holding, and if so, at what price.‘

The subject together with the following are again contributions from BRV.

Posted back in early September and fabulous reading for us all in lieu of what is to come in the coming weeks 😊

‘ A few thoughts via GRH...

What Paul Griffiths has done in Morocco looks very much like a calculated masterstroke rather than a stumble:

🔑 1. Pressurised Gas Confirmed Across Multiple Wells

◾ MOU-1 to MOU-4 all encountered overpressured gas systems.

◾ At MOU-3, live gas influx was still observed at 795m, forcing an 8% mud weight increase.

◾ Overpressure proves the system is alive and charged, not residual. This is the best possible “problem” to have — the challenge is how to manage it, not whether the gas is there.

🔑 2. Nitrogen Uplift – Controlled Unlocking of Flow

◾ By using nitrogen to lift and swab debris from perforated zones, PG has shown the reservoirs are accessible despite earlier formation damage.

◾ Leaving MOU-3 shut-in under pressure isn’t “giving up” — it’s a way of letting reservoir energy break through damaged skins while protecting integrity.

◾ This means gas is preserved in-situ and available for a virgin, engineered test (MOU-6).

🔑 3. Protecting Value Through Delineation

◾ Instead of burning capital chasing early flow at all costs, PG has:

▫ Captured the data from MOU-1 to MOU-4 to define the reservoir and pressure regimes.

▫ Designed MOU-6 as a clean well to 950m with balanced mud weights and casing integrity.

▫ Preserved the MOU-5 updip, Triassic, and helium plays for later farm-in leverage.

◾ This sequencing means Morocco cannot simply say “one well didn’t flow” and discount the licence. Each well adds proof of system pressure and stacked potential.

🔑 4. Outsmarting Morocco’s Leverage

◾ Morocco will ultimately want control of Guercif — but by proving multiple plays, PG ensures PRD’s stake is priced across the whole portfolio, not just one sand.

◾ By pausing after MOU-3 and shifting focus to Trinidad, he has bought time, optionality, and cash flow, while Guercif pressure continues to build.

◾ This is classic “ratchet” strategy — each step locks in more value before Morocco takes a larger slice.

💡 Conclusion:

Yes — Paul Griffiths has played a blinder. Instead of being forced into dilutive, desperate drilling, he’s used MOU-3 to expose the overpressure system, prove it’s alive, and then protect Guercif’s value for the engineered MOU-6 well and the eventual farm-in.

He’s essentially ring-fenced the upside until PRD can extract maximum value — knowing full well Morocco won’t give shareholders 100%, but ensuring we get the best possible slice.’

‘(cont...)

▶ SECTION 5: Helium Show on a Fault Below Salt

“The helium chromatographic registered a show at the base of the mobilised salt at a potential fault plane…”

🔑 Decoded:

◾ Helium gas seen at a fault beneath salt — classic migration pathway.

◾ Fault cuts through the salt — meaning deep-sourced gas (thermogenic or helium) could be leaking upwards.

💡 Implication:

◾ This is classic Hassi R’Mel-type geology — helium and methane accumulate below salt, then leak along faults.

◾ PRD may be sitting on a helium-bearing system, just like Renergen in South Africa.

▶ SECTION 6: Code Language in “Further Evaluation” and “Side-track”

“MOU-5 was suspended for potential later re-entry and side-tracking updip…”

🔑 Decoded:

◾ They’re not abandoning MOU-5 — they know it may have hit the edge of something big.

◾ “Side-track updip” = move toward the structural high, where gas or helium is more likely to accumulate.

💡 Implication:

◾ This is delineation work — classic step before a farm-out or full appraisal campaign.

◾ He is protecting value and data before announcing anything big.‘

Thanks again to BRV for the following posts from September last year.

‘ A few further thoughts via GRH for your perusal:

The RNS is far more revealing than it seems at first glance. This is Paul Griffiths speaking in “geologist-code” — and he’s embedding clues for technically aware investors and industry insiders, while avoiding over-promising in a regulatory document.

Let’s decode this clue-rich passage line by line and show how Paul is quietly laying out a major strategic play: A TREASURE MAP



▶ SECTION 1: “Unexpected” Salt and Structural Re-mapping

“An unexpected gross interval of 58 metres of higher velocity anhydrite and salt was encountered in the section originally interpreted as ‘Domerian’ pre-drill.”

🔑 Decoded:

◾ Salt (anhydrite) was not predicted—this is a new finding.

◾ It completely changes the geological model. What they thought was a reservoir (Domerian) was actually allochthonous salt.

💡 Implication:

◾ The area is structurally far more complex than believed.

◾ This opens up the potential for deep structural traps (especially below salt).

◾ Salt is a seal, which means hydrocarbons could be trapped beneath.

▶ SECTION 2: Salt Is Triassic and Allochthonous

“Salt is interpreted as allochthonous being of Triassic age.”

🔑 Decoded:

◾ “Allochthonous” = it’s moved from its original position, possibly through mobilisation.

◾ It is Triassic in origin — same as in giant gas fields like Tendrara, Meskala, Hassi R’Mel.

💡 Implication:

◾ He’s hinting this is the right kind of salt to trap large gas accumulations.

◾ Salt movement could explain seismic anomalies that were misinterpreted before.

▶ SECTION 3: Seismic “Noise” is Actually Salt Geometry

“Salt mobilisation and lateral intrusion generated the divergent seismic geometries originally interpreted as onlapping Domerian reservoirs.”

Decoded:

◾ The onlapping structures seen on seismic were not reservoirs but actually salt intrusions.

💡 Implication:

◾ The seismic data is being reinterpreted — and the updated model will now look for deeper structures under salt.

◾ This gives PRD new targets that were previously invisible.

▶ SECTION 4: New Deep Sands Found (Never Seen Before)

“MOU-5 encountered a gross interval of 30 metres of sands below the Domerian carbonate never encountered before in this part of the Guercif Basin.”

🔑 Decoded:

◾ This is a new reservoir: 30m thick below the known system.

◾ Not seen in any previous well — totally new play.

💡Implication:

◾ This is not just deeper drilling — this is a new petroleum system.

◾ Suggests PRD may have multiple stacked plays in Guercif (shallow biogenic, deep thermogenic).

(Cont...)’

👓 Final Thought

The MOU-5 well may not have flowed gas—but it may have revealed the biggest prize of all: a deep, sealed, thermogenic system analogous to Hassi R’Mel.

This shifts PRD’s Morocco story from niche CNG pilot to multi-TCF export-scale potential—with the right seismic and partners.

If Paul Griffiths is playing 3D chess, this is his next move.

The following are BRVs posts from last September…. very interesting reading now in light of what appears to be unfolding.

‘Afternoon all,

A few thoughts courtesy of GRH...

🔑 Why the MOU-5 Salt and Triassic Discovery Matters

▶ 1. Triassic Salt = Effective Seal

◾ The first-time confirmation of thick, mobilised Triassic salt is crucial.

◾ Salt acts as an impermeable caprock, sealing in hydrocarbons beneath it.

◾ This is the same geological mechanism behind giant gas fields like:

▫ Hassi R’Mel (Algeria) – Africa’s largest gas field

▫ Meskala & Tendrara (Morocco) – proven commercial fields nearby

💡 Implication: PRD may have the same type of structure capable of holding billions of cubic metres of gas.

▶ 2. New Deep Play = Massive Upside

◾ A Triassic play is deeper and larger scale than the current shallow biogenic gas targets (MOU-1/2/3).

◾ It opens the door to thermogenic gas and potentially even condensates, which are more energy-dense and higher value.

◾ The area discussed (the Domerian carbonate bank, 187 km²) could support multiple large traps.

💡 Implication: This isn’t just one prospect—it’s potentially an entire basin-scale system.

▶ 3. Salt Separates Targets = Multiple Systems

◾ The salt may compartmentalise the basin, meaning:

▫ Shallow biogenic gas (Jurassic)

▫ Deeper thermogenic gas (Triassic TAGI sands)

◾ These systems can be developed independently, allowing for phased monetisation and diversified risk.

🔁 Example: Shallow gas for CNG; deep gas for LNG or pipelines.

▶ 4. Preserved Reservoir Quality

◾ The fact that MOU-5 area did not undergo deep burial (unlike other parts of Morocco) means:

▫ Porosity and permeability could be better preserved in the TAGI sands.

▫ Less diagenetic cementation = better flow potential.

💡 This makes the TAGI at Guercif potentially more productive than equivalent plays elsewhere.

▶ 5. Urgent Need for New Seismic

◾ Legacy 2D seismic is insufficient to properly define these new deep structures.

◾ PRD is already planning:

▫ Gravity-magnetic modelling

▫ Desktop basin modelling

▫ Infill 2D/3D seismic

🎯 This positions the company for a farm-out or JV by adding deeper inventory and reducing exploration risk.

⏩ Summary: Strategic Repositioning

This new Triassic-salt system re-positions Predator’s entire Morocco portfolio:

ASPECT ▶ BEFORE MOU-5 ▶ AFTER MOU-5

Primary Target ▶ Shallow Biogenic (MOU-1/2/3) ▶ Shallow + Deep

Seal Quality ▶ Unconfirmed ▶ Traissic salt proven

Deep play potential ▶ Unknown ▶ TAGI + Paleozoic in play

Gas type ▶ Biogenic only ▶ Thermogenic + Helium possible

Commercial strategy ▶ Micro-LNG +CNG ▶ Add pipeline / LNG-scale exports

Basin size ▶ Modest ▶ Possibly huge

Farm-out value ▶ Moderate ▶ Significantly higher potential

👓 Final Thought

The MOU-5 well may not have flowed gas—but it may have revealed the biggest prize of

In my 7+ years invested here I am well aware that Paul is no doubt very astute … although he will leave ‘something on the table’, he won’t be giving anything away. 😊

80p/£1 per share per tcf has been touted previously 😊