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Just looking back over a few posts trying to find some info on possible valuations of what we may have in Morocco.
My very conservative, personal current thinking is we have 2 tcf.
MEMs post below is from 29th June 2023.
‘Evening, I have put together something that might help a few people understand our possible future valuation as it is not the case that as we discover more and more gas the value will increase in a linear fashion.
Some will agree that a base valuation is 0.4p per Bcf or 400p per Tcf, what is harder to understand is whatever gas we discover after 3-4 Tcf will be worth less.
The reason is that a ceramic factory will pay a very reasonable sum for fairly small amounts of CNG, however once we have found sufficient gas to extract above the sales requirements to local suppliers, we will sell the gas as G2P or G2EUR at much reduced sums.
Hence the figures below might be of some use.
Assuming 490m shares and flat rate (no discount of 400p per Tcf)
1 to 4 Tcf . full value - therefore per Tcf =400p
5 to 8 Tcf - apply a 50% discount
8 to 12 Tcf - apply a 65% discount
12 to 16 Tcf - apply a 75% discount
16 Tcf and above apply a 80% discount
If we found 10 tcf the value would equal approx £27 per share or an M/Cap of £13 billion
However PG has stated his intention is to create a CNG business and sell off the rest.
So now assume we initially only discover 4Tcf and sell off the balance of the field, keeping Stub equity.
Some rough estimates indicate a likely Divi of 55p per share pa, if 15 Tcf is found and extracted over 20 years.
Not everyone/anyone will agree with my figures, but it sure is interesting playing around with the variables to see where we might be.
MEM‘
James, Hampshirelass, to further your research, other than Company RNS & presentations you can’t go far wrong by reading historical posts from our more seasoned posters (see Sefton’s posts for a list of these).
These posters have taken the time to share their considerable knowledge and research to the benefit of us all.
They have stood the test of time and remain consistent in their views.
Good luck with your investment.
Lancygeo.
I appreciate it doesn’t suit everyone to filter the undesirables but it works for me.
Said individual has been filtered since the days of LGO if I remember correctly, I was thoroughly cheesed off with him p*ssing on my chips… dragging down my investment on a daily basis…. not any more 😊
RNS - 27th June 2023
‘Paul Griffiths, Executive Chairman of Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc commented:
……Once the MOU-4 drilling is complete, results from all the wells drilled in 2023 will be quickly assessed and compared and a comprehensive and expanded rigless testing programme will then commence during July." ‘
Just looking back through some posts and came across the one below which gives us an idea on the potential revenues we could expect if Morocco fulfills our expectations.
Posted by MEM on 29th June 2023.
‘ Evening, I have put together something that might help a few people understand our possible future valuation as it is not the case that as we discover more and more gas the value will increase in a linear fashion.
Some will agree that a base valuation is 0.4p per Bcf or 400p per Tcf, what is harder to understand is whatever gas we discover after 3-4 Tcf will be worth less.
The reason is that a ceramic factory will pay a very reasonable sum for fairly small amounts of CNG, however once we have found sufficient gas to extract above the sales requirements to local suppliers, we will sell the gas as G2P or G2EUR at much reduced sums.
Hence the figures below might be of some use.
Assuming 490m shares and flat rate (no discount of 400p per Tcf)
1 to 4 Tcf . full value - therefore per Tcf =400p
5 to 8 Tcf - apply a 50% discount
8 to 12 Tcf - apply a 65% discount
12 to 16 Tcf - apply a 75% discount
16 Tcf and above apply a 80% discount
If we found 10 tcf the value would equal approx £27 per share or an M/Cap of £13 billion
However PG has stated his intention is to create a CNG business and sell off the rest.
So now assume we initially only discover 4Tcf and sell off the balance of the field, keeping Stub equity.
Some rough estimates indicate a likely Divi of 55p per share pa, if 15 Tcf is found and extracted over 20 years.
Not everyone/anyone will agree with my figures, but it sure is interesting playing around with the variables to see where we might be. ‘
MEM
Probably released due to pressure on social media and with the shares falling as so called experts thought that the MOU-4 well wasn’t as good as initially thought it is good to see the company getting out chapter and verse on the result.
There are people who might expect to see flow rates etc from this data which is not only unrealistic but not physically possible at the moment. This data has already given more in terms of potential than ever thought pre-drilling and will be established with further evaluation.
This is what I wrote after the recent announcement, I haven’t changed my mind so to save my time i’m just going to repeat it.
These are very big numbers indeed and prove that those with confidence in PRD who have tripled the share price since the turn of the year may well have been vindicated. Whilst there is still plenty of evaluation to be done the rigless testing which is about to start could be highly rewarding for Predator.
https://www.malcysblog.com/2023/07/oil-price-hunting-rockhopper-predator-trinity-gran-tierra/
Predator is in the Bucket List as it screams out the constituents of a successful exploration campaign, not to mention the massive enthusiasm of founder Paul Griffiths. Nothing is a given with a huge amount of work to be done but just think what could happen if a wealthy partner arrived on board…
Https://twitter.com/vegasnomore/status/1679380514308866048?s=46&t=6JRoCt4SugtCBX31tiwGUg
Congratulations ... excellent news 👏
Trust management is a mantra of PG. I and other LTHs do. We will all be rewarded.
Keep up the great work 👍
#PRD