Member Info for Lancygeo

Oak Securities research note February 2025.

‘ The market will now focus on the spudding of the Titanosaurus exploration well (on or before 3 March) onshore Morocco where Predator has a 75% working interest. This is a giant prospect with potential P50 recoverable resources of 5.9 TCF of natural gas. On top of this, management believes that could be helium present which would be a valuable bi-product. Success would prove to be transformation to shareholders. We understand that the company has received several unsolicited expressions of interest for participation in any future drilling programmes that may be required should Titanosaurus hold gas and/or helium in line with pre-drill expectations.’

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2025/02/Predator-180225.pdf

In Paul’s words….

‘ That well will not currently be funded by the Company. And that’s all I will say. Um we are very very pleased with what’s going on in Morocco and how we’re progressing there. Contrary to what others may perceive we are the ones at the mine head or wellhead if you like and we know the progress we’ve made and we know that this is the most exciting project that we’ve had and continue to have for the Company and it will deliver uh perhaps sooner than some people would like to expect.’

Thanks to BRV for the original transcript of the IMC presentation from Jan 2025.

Extract shown below.

‘ And Guercif is unique. It’s never been explored in this part of Guercif until we came along. And the prospect scale is unique. The biogenic gas potential is unique. The CNG transport to industry is unique. The generative potential of biogenic gas is unique to Morocco, 7Tcf potential.

So we have all the elements for a big discovery but if anybody thinks Morocco is like the North Sea, I’d say it’s more like Ireland, that the geology is right, that the infrastructure is right (the fiscal regime has gone a little bit sour in Ireland), but it has all the elements, but it will not reveal or release multiple fields like the North Sea. Ireland Kinsale field 1.7Tcf, Corrib gas field 1Tcf. And Morocco is going to be like that, it will yield one big field, at best two big fields. It will happen, it’ll be like Ghana before they discovered Jubilee. So Morocco is that kind of environment, it’s not a North Sea environment where you just move along, drill an appraisal well, boom, you put it on production or you make another discovery, that’s not the same geological environment.’

Spiritefan…. I too remember Keith posting about sub licenses in T&T,

Keith’s post from January below.

‘ Just discussing this offline. This bit: "demonstrate our in-house operational capabilities to ensure we are well-placed and qualified to acquire any new attractive opportunities that may or may not become available long-term" is important - Heritage have just offered up sub-licences on the Moruga North, Tabaquite and PS-3 blocks, and will want to see that PRD can operate these themselves rather than just using an agency such as NABI. imho of course.’

MrGMan…. excellent post, reminded me of the following which I have posted several times over the last few years…. still as relevant today as it’s always been.

https://microcapclub.com/the-conviction-to-hold/

Looking back through a few posts and saw this one from Wacky from 12 months ago.

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/thewackmiester/

Morning all,

Before we all run to the hills scared witless from all the Doom merchants I would like to point out that todays news regarding Trinidad has the potential to turn this company into a Major producer and thank you very much a lovely big Cash Cow for doing not a lot in my Book.

Anyone remember the results from the Pilot CO2 in the AT4 Sand on the Inniss Trinity Block.

The desktop model forecasted a range of 243 to 547 bopd for the Herrera #2 Sand in the AT-4 Block.

The results from the pilot program showed production within this forecasted range, confirming that the CO2 EOR pilot was effective in increasing production.

A Simple Revenue Estimation based on the ONE Herrera sand interval from ONE well from the AT-4 block utilising the new contractors (NABI Construction) a 30% return would be as follows :

Average Oil Price: Assume $70 per barrel

Daily Production Range: 243 to 547 bopd.

Low-end Estimate (243 bopd):

Daily revenue: 243 bopd x $70 per barrel = $17,010 per day.

Annual revenue: $17,010 x 365 = $6.2 million per year.

Predator's share (30%): 30% x $6.2 million = $1.86 million per year.

High-end Estimate (547 bopd):

Daily revenue: 547 bopd x $70 per barrel = $38,290 per day.

Annual revenue: $38,290 x 365 = $13.98 million per year.

Predator's share (30%): 30% x $13.98 million = $4.2 million per year.

Obviously we have not been informed if we are to be using CO2 once more or the new technology From E.A.R.T.H. which has proven to Enhance Oil Production in some fiels by up to 3 fold will be the preferred route ?.

And Although we will become the operators of some 250 wells in Trinidad not all will be producers and that has to be taken into account 10% or 25 of those wells performing at the above BOPD will return the company :

Low-end Estimate (243 bopd):

Annual revenue for 25 wells: $1.86 million x 25 = $46.5 million per year.

High-end Estimate (547 bopd):

Annual revenue for 25 wells: $4.2 million x 25 = $105 million per year.

Dont forget the Inherited tax breaks to take into accout also.

This is a good day for PRD.

AIMHO of Course.

GLA.

Wacky.

Agreed Keith…. let’s concentrate on the here and now imho.

Keith’s post from yesterday.

‘ Pt.2

In order of likely deal completion, these are:

1. Biogenic gas from just the A-Sands & Ma-Sands to supply CNG and/or LNG. So maybe two deals here, Vivo (LNG), and Afriquia Gaz (CNG). ONHYM may or may not be involved as an additional commercial party. An announcement should include the MOU-1 & MOU-3 ITR, funding for MOU-6 and drilling schedule, and any lump-sum payment. I think that PG is a little hopeful on getting all historic costs returned, maybe it will be in the form of 6 months advance gas sales. The share price will not fully reflect the value until MOU-6 has flowed successfully. This deal needs to be completed asap since it is my understanding that MOU-6 needs to have been tested successfully in order to apply for an Exploitation Concession by the deadline of August 5th. Unless ONHYM increase their current 25%, I do not see any of the licence being farmed out with these deals.

2. Biogenic gas from TGB-6 Sands. This could be an option to extend the above agreements, or a separate arrangement. It has a lot more gas, extends to 85km², and has been penetrated by MOU-1, -2, -3 and -4. The field development will cost a lot more. I assume this is why a separate ITR is being worked up for TGB-6.

3. Maybe? Farmout of the large unconventional biogenic gas around MOU-1 to a company with fracking expertise. Might be part of a larger farmout.

4. Maybe? Farmout of thermogenic gas from the deeper MOU-Fan. This was the original big MOU target until it was realised how much biogenic gas is there. It might get rolled up as part of the following, especially if Helium content is as hoped.

5. Jurassic / Triassic / Helium. Considerable investment and appraisal work required, so will require a big player to farm in. They would want operatorship and more than 50% of the licence. They would have existing customers from deals 1 & 2. Such a comprehensive deal may be further down the track, outside the originally-stated 6 months - although the current geopolitical situation may have accelerated the usually slow decision making typical of the majors. I expect that long-term value (royalties from production) will be worth a lot more than any upfront payment, which I realise is contrary to the expectations of many.’

GRH’s post led me to ChatGPT.

That’s a wonderfully cryptic line — and a very specific reference.

The “geometry of Guercif” tends to come up in discussions that blend geology, resource exploration, and a bit of intrigue. Guercif is a basin region in eastern Morocco, and when people mention its “geometry,” they’re usually pointing to:

• The structural shape of the Guercif Basin (a sedimentary basin)

• Its fault lines, folds, and stratigraphy

• How those features might trap resources (oil, gas, helium, etc.)

In recent years, it’s especially been associated with helium exploration, where the subsurface “geometry” — traps, seals, and reservoir layers — is critical. Companies analyze seismic data to map that geometry and identify where gases might accumulate.

So when someone says “recall the geometry of Guercif”, it often carries a slightly knowing tone — as if to say:

Don’t forget the underlying structure… the hidden framework that explains what’s really going on.

It can be:

• A technical nod (to basin structure and resource potential)

• Or a more tongue-in-cheek / conspiratorial aside about something deeper beneath the surface

I for one have no idea how this plays out for us in the near term or in the future. I am reassured that all will come good on 1 or more fronts in Morocco and I fully intend to stay the course and benefit from any good fortune that comes our way.

Good luck and best wishes for the forthcoming weeks/months to all the lth’s 😊

Agreed Keith….. their quarterly commentaries are articulate, well researched and a thoroughly excellent read. 😊

Https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/keithoz/

Lancygeo

Https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/billyrayval/

Lancygeo

Https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/grh.../

Lancygeo

Https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/thewackmiester/

Lancygeo

I don’t think Paul is in Morocco for 28p 😊

Paul Griffiths, Chief Executive Officer of Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc commented:

"We are making good progress on many fronts including infield development drilling; production growth, preparing and contracting for high-reward appraisal drilling; and potentially concluding a transaction that will begin to appraise, confirm and monetise the Moroccan gas discoveries in 2026. At the same time, we must not neglect evaluating new prospectivity such as additional oil reservoirs encountered whilst drilling in Bonasse and the emerging Cretaceous prospectivity.

We seek to prioritise those projects that can generate the highest near-term return for shareholders whilst maintaining flexibility to respond to new drilling results, simultaneously with managing the everyday corporate administrative function."

Did I read that right ? 🤔

‘The country's natural gas demand is expected to rise to 8 billion cubic metres in 2027 from around 1 bcm currently, according to ministry estimates.’

Reference to potential Helium at Mou4 appears in the Annual Report December 2024.

‘MOU-4

The MOU-4 well was drilled in July 2023 and confirmed the extension of the Moulouya Fan further to the southeast than previously prognosed. Better reservoir quality was interpreted as a result of the NuTech petrophysical analysis of the wireline logs, which also interpreted the presence of gas (and potentially helium).

The well also confirmed the presence of a separate Jurassic carbonate target at 1,135 metres. Site preparations are currently underway for the well to be drilled in Q1 2025 to test this Jurassic target.‘

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2025/04/POGH-2024-Annual-Report-15-April-25-FINAL-fully-audited-executed-signed.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Oak Securities research note February 2025.

‘ The market will now focus on the spudding of the Titanosaurus exploration well (on or before 3 March) onshore Morocco where Predator has a 75% working interest. This is a giant prospect with potential P50 recoverable resources of 5.9 TCF of natural gas. On top of this, management believes that could be helium present which would be a valuable bi-product. Success would prove to be transformation to shareholders. We understand that the company has received several unsolicited expressions of interest for participation in any future drilling programmes that may be required should Titanosaurus hold gas and/or helium in line with pre-drill expectations.’

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2025/02/Predator-180225.pdf

Please see below what Paul said about Morocco in the IMC presentation in January 2025.

‘ And Guercif is unique. It’s never been explored in this part of Guercif until we came along. And the prospect scale is unique. The biogenic gas potential is unique. The CNG transport to industry is unique. The generative potential of biogenic gas is unique to Morocco, 7Tcf potential.

So we have all the elements for a big discovery but if anybody thinks Morocco is like the North Sea, I’d say it’s more like Ireland, that the geology is right, that the infrastructure is right (the fiscal regime has gone a little bit sour in Ireland), but it has all the elements, but it will not reveal or release multiple fields like the North Sea. Ireland Kinsale field 1.7Tcf, Corrib gas field 1Tcf. And Morocco is going to be like that, it will yield one big field, at best two big fields. It will happen, it’ll be like Ghana before they discovered Jubilee. So Morocco is that kind of environment, it’s not a North Sea environment where you just move along, drill an appraisal well, boom, you put it on production or you make another discovery, that’s not the same geological environment.’