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The Elephant in the kitchen … thermogenic gas migration from an active hydrocarbon generating system.

From the RNs issued on the 6th July

“ evidence of thermogenic gas migration supports in this part of the Guercif Basin the pre-drill geological interpretation for a deep gas "kitchen" connected to shallower reservoirs by large faults.”

This is significant and missed by most investors …Why ? You need to understand the difference between biogenic and thermogenic gas.

Biogenic hydrocarbon gases are those produced as a direct consequence of bacterial activity and are usually generated in shallower depths .Typically, generation of biogenic gas is with fine-grained sediment due to its characteristically higher initial organic content

Thermogenic gas migration usually occurs at depths exceeding 1,000m ( Floodgate and Judd 1992)

These hydrocarbon gases are produced from higher temperature and pressure and involves thermal degradation and cracking of organic matter(Schoell, 1988).

This can result in considerable upward migration of the gas.

Fault related structures serve as conduits for migration of thermogenic gas. In common with other MAJOR thermogenic gas generation areas GUERCIF shares the same features such as Faults, vents , seeps, diapirs, and mud volcanoes.

This was referenced on the CPR pathfinder report 2012 page 16.

“Geochemical analyses indicate thermogenic gas reaching the surface in areas of thick Neogene sediments suggesting that salt diapirism and recent Rif tectonics have resulted in some seepage to the surface. This confirms an active hydrocarbon generating system in the area.”

Some of it buried down to at least 7kms.

Hydrocarbon generation intensity /energy is the most important geochemical factor to estimate large and middle gas fields.

DYOR
GLA

Quite possibly.
Thanks Wacky, GRH for the usual spot on advice.

This sell off is something I’ll be talking about for years. WOW.

Just goes to show the difference between information and KNOWLEDGE.

Which is why investing in the stock market is the

ULTIMATE ZERO GAME

Please do the research
GLA

GRH, spot on again.

I would recommend every investor to read SEVERAL times the annual report year ended 31 December 2020 page 4, Morocco.

Please pay particular attention to Why MOU-1 location was selected

The best and high estimate for MOU-2 are 393 and 944 BCF respectively based on a Competent Persons Report by SLR Consulting (Ireland) Ltd. completed in December 2020.

The possibility of an extensive lower Jurassic thermogenic gas kitchen - now PROVEN.

The identification of a new MOU­4 Prospect covering 31.7km2. (HUGE)

Then read from todays regulatory RNS announcement

“most importantly de-risked the pathway required for dry gas from a thermogenic origin to charge the primary targets in a prospective area of over 100 km². MOU-1 therefore further enhanced the CPR prospective gas resources assigned to the proposed MOU-2 and MOU-4 drilling targets whilst adding some additional potential shallow targets that had previously not been considered. “

It’s worth repeating this again Prospective area of over 100 km².

DYOR

Forward plans
The occurrence of good gas shows in MOU-1 with evidence of thermogenic gas migration supports in this part of the Guercif Basin the pre-drill geological interpretation for a deep gas "kitchen" connected to shallower reservoirs by large faults.

The biggest problem is that many carrier beds are often below seismic resolution.

Migration cannot continue unless the trap is filled to "capacity".

DYOR

Think we can bury our heads in the sand and hope that pigs really can fly but the reality is the total switch to renewable’s is going to be eye watering expensive. Which is why we need sensible transition energy policy and the very reason I’m invested here.
From the report…

Once economic reality becomes undeniable, there will be a huge lobby to pass on the full costs of offshore wind to either electricity consumers or taxpayers. The obvious instrument is carbon taxation, but the increase required would be very large, and the economic harm would be politically contentious to say the least. Vast bailouts to an industry that has misrepresented its economics, whether knowingly or not, will be extremely unpopular. A government trapped between intense political opposition and the ever-widening ramifications of the financial collapse of the offshore wind sector will behave in ways that cannot be predicted confidently, but investors in renewables should be very nervous.

The elephant in the room.....those who can't pay, won't pay.
https://scotlandagainstspin.org/2020/10/wind-industry-claims-scorched-wind-power-costs-are-increasing-not-decreasing-stt/

Hi Guys, as we head in to the weekend let’s remember any minute now our ship, Predator, is coming in and potentially changing all our lives. This is a quote from our leader and captain PG talking to Malcy back in October 2020. Pour yourself a glass of your finest and play ‘Waiting For My Real Life to Begin’ by Colin Hay. GLA

Malcolm Graham-Wood talks to Paul Griffiths of Predator Oil & Gas Oct7, 2020

“This is the best prospect I’ve ever seen in 44 years in the business and that’s because of it’s commercial attractiveness, it’s cheap drilling, it’s geology first and foremost and I think I’m in a position to say that because I’ve been involved in Libya, I’ve been involved in Argentina, I’ve been involved in Colombia, I’ve been involved in Abu Dhabi over 44 years and I have never ever seen anything where I can spend two and a half million dollars and get a TCF of gas two kilometres from a pipeline with good geology that I’m very, very comfortable with and that’s why I’m a 20 percent shareholder…this is a fantastic opportunity, it’s risk reward is unbeatable.”

"Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon"
-Jesse Livermore

Morocco and Ireland opportunity

Following on from my first post highlighting ConocoPhillips need to deliver low-greenhouse-gas affordable energy …

Consider the AGGRESSIVE push toward low carbon energy transition that is happening WORLDWIDE….

This from PRD rns 30 June 2020
Paul Griffiths, Chief Executive of Predator, commented:

"Guercif is pivotal to the Company in terms of developing a gas business utilising the excellent infrastructure that exists in Morocco…. We have used lockdown to define additional Guercif prospectivity and to review potential LNG markets suitable for FSRU penetration …

And some wider market context…

KISTOS PLC Acquisition of Tulip Oil Netherlands B.V. for €222.75 million ..

In line with one of the key objectives of Kistos’ acquisition strategy set out in the November 2020 Admission Document, that acquisitions should play a role in energy transition ….
Gas is a commodity and, accordingly, the gas market is a global one with gas being transported around the world, primarily in the form of LNG. Europe remains a net importer of natural gas with imports both in the form of LNG cargoes and non-liquified product from around the world…..

And

Europe currently remains energy dependent and whilst longer-term competition to gas may come from solar, wind, biomass and other green energy sources it is, in the Directors’ view, unlikely that the market for low carbon gas is likely to be impacted materially.

DYOR
GLA

Morocco Overview

With the PRD Morocco drill upcoming in June it’s worth reminding ourselves of the opportunity with this exceptional company..

As stated by the board in the Corporate presentation July 2020….
Prospectively of northern Morocco recognised by ConocoPhillips acquiring licence adjoining Guercif 12/6/20

https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2020/06/305910/morocco-signs-2-year-exploratory-contract-with-conocophillips/

This from the ?FEBRUARY 02, 2021 Q4 2020 ConocoPhillips Earnings Call
Question,
So my question is, what are some of the things that the management team is going to need to do to sustain its leadership position in this new environment to continue to be the best E&P company with these new realities

Ans
we've got to also deliver this low-greenhouse-gas affordable energy all around the world, and that's going to be a part as we go through this transition that's really important. I think it's maybe lost in some of the rhetoric today, just how important oil and gas is to this transition that we're going to be going through over the next number of years and decades.

And

I think we're focused really on what our cost structure will look like……
stopping our new ventures exploration program. That reduced our targeted exploration spend from $300 million to $150 million a year.

Q, just how you're thinking about some of the international LNG opportunities at this point?

Ans ,
We do like the LNG projects. We like the growing need for gas around the whole world.