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Whether it is a trivial thing to change chokes or not is not the point. Yes, it is a straightforward physical operation, but the whole point is to get a choke size that gives you maximal flow, but at a stable rate. You can do this on a trial-and-error basis, but good luck with that. Most people would start with a calculation of likely flow using measured variables - the original calculation is Gilbert's equation - I can't get this to copy properly here, but you can Google: Gilbert equation +choke.
This is pretty accurate - in one study, arithmetic prediction of over 1000 gas wells had a correlation with real-world flow rates of 0.8978. Later work by Tangren, Guo and others has produced modified equations that bring R up to almost 1. To optimise the flow by choke diameter you would then use the Vogel equation - again it is too complex to copy it here, but again Google: Vogel equation +choke.
The point I was trying to make was that the original Reddit note by Methodology
https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/t8ssg0/mou1_the_rharb_basin_net_pay_vs_well_flow_rate/
may be underestimating the likely flow rates that we will (hopefully soon!) see from the MOU-Fan.
There was some discussion on Telegram concerning chokes for gas flow testing. I posted this:
Take a look at the Reddit post about well productivity from the Rharb Basin. Different size chokes were used, mostly around half inch (or 32/64 as the Americans annoyingly put it). I have suggested that PRD have higher pressured and larger reservoirs, so may well be able to flow test using larger chokes, hence get better flow rates per metre than have SDX.
This article on Eni's (now failed) project on the southern Morocco Atlantic shelf may be of interest to the financially-minded who may wish to compare with Guercif economics - it contains data on projected break-evens, IRR, NPV etc.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/ci/research-analysis/could-enis-nfw-unveil-further-potential-offshore-morocco.html
@SandyB (+anyone else looking for trade data). lse is not showing any trades today, but the real LSE is - see:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/PRD/predator-oil-gas-holdings-plc/trade-recap
I put a diagram on Twitter that may be of interest:
https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1742115469648351510
@MEM - The post here last week you mention was referring to Regeneron in RSA. Totally different geology & origin of gases.
Gas composition for MOU-1 was RNS'd on 6th July 2021. Between 605 and 1487m - methane, plus traces of C2, C3 & C4. No Helium. RNS of 13th June 2023 confirmed the connection of reservoirs at various levels in MOU-3, thus gas composition would be expected to be the same for the whole basin - "The presence of overpressured gas trapped at shallow depths in a common structural closure above the next Ma and TGB-6 targets has de-risked vertical thermogenic gas charge from deeply buried source rocks generating dry gas. Migration pathways can now be identified on seismic based on the early MOU-3 drilling results." This was an extremely important statement that appears to have been overlooked by many - put simply, it means 'it's very big and it's all connected.'
Happy holidays to all, and we wish you and your families a peaceful and very prosperous new year.
I would wager that there is some major misunderstanding here, unless it is deliberate obfuscation. This article sums up what may or may not happen to Azeri gas getting to Europe (or not) via the proposed increased capacity of the TANAP pipeline. There is absolutely zero chance of it being routed to Morocco, assuming Azerbaijan are ever able to produce it, and the TANAP owners being able to justify the huge development costs. Bizarre comment.
https://eurasianet.org/plans-for-doubling-azerbaijans-gas-flows-to-europe-on-hold
"The plans to double exports of Azeri gas to Europe were agreed under a memorandum of understanding between the European Union and Azerbaijan signed in July last year. The agreement was signed in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine the previous February and growing fears that the loss of Russian gas imports of upwards of 180 billion cubic meters a year would leave Europe starved of gas and suffering widespread power outages.
The wording however was not that of a formal commitment, signalling only that the two sides had agreed to "aspire" to support doubling Azeri gas exports to Europe to "at least 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually by 2027, in accordance with commercial viability and market demand." But while Europe has faced unprecedented increases in energy prices, a continent-wide energy shortage has been avoided thus far thanks to greatly increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and boosting power generation from other sources such as coal, nuclear and renewables.
This has left both sides facing a conundrum. If there is no gas shortage, there is no guaranteed market for the extra gas Azerbaijan is supposed to supply, and no reason to invest in expanding either production or the capacity of the pipelines.
At the same time, it's still unclear just how much extra gas Azerbaijan will be able to supply, and when."
I would agree with Graham that the section worded
"MOU-3 - 1,406.0 to 1,412.0 metres RKB (within Moulouya Fan interval)" ... "Subject to establishing the potential quantum of gas flow rate for the Moulouya Fan interval in MOU-3, an option to replace the Ma Sand test in MOU-1 would be considered as follows: MOU-4 - 873.85 to 879.85 metres RKB (within Moulouya Fan interval)."
implies that management think there is a good chance that just the relatively thin section of the MOU-Fan reservoir to be tested will supply enough gas for the initial CNG operation. Why make this potential change? - if there is a good enough gas flow from this interval at MOU-3, there will almost certainly be the same rate from MOU-4 (making what some might consider to be a big assumption that there is no reservoir compartmentalisation). Two producer wells will be required to ensure continuity of supply in case there is a problem with one well, or if maintenance is needed.
Now I need some collective help in interpretation of the rest of that RNS, specifically on financing. It is clear that the following are fully funded from existing cash resources:
* T-Rex (Cory-Moruga) acquisition.
* 4 x well workovers on C-M.
* CNG pilot development.
I assume that the following are fully funded, although it is not specifically stated:
* The rigless testing programme as detailed.
* 5 x EIAs for new Guercif drill sites.
NOT currently funded, and potentially from C-M cash flow if nothing else comes sooner:
* Jurassic carbonate 1100m well
Funding status not specifically mentioned:
* Appraisal of shallow sands found at MOU-3, plus the Ma sands - one well to 800m, one to 1000m, both apparently new sites, since EIAs are being processed for both.
Anyone have any (sensible) observations on this, please?
Lonny had better check the potential drill sites for the Jurassic carbonate prospect - the new motorway route will likely run right over the top, as it connects the existing A2 motorway (100m from MOU-2) to the planned upgrade of the Mediterranean port of Nador, for which LNG facilities are planned.
Bad - Rod is back
Good - Bo is no longer a Director, Rob Edwards is gone. Eric Sondergaard is back.
Very good - "In due course, the new Board will update shareholders regarding the implementation of a new strategy that will focus solely around developing the Disko magmatic massive sulphide project in Greenland."
I would be very interested to hear the views of folks who have been shareholders for a few years.
Far too hot today to be an armchair geologist/ceo/strategist, so doing it from a hammock on the veranda. Today would be the last day this year to give an update, before everybody goes away for a couple of weeks, mentally and/or physically. Not a good idea to issue a C-M CPR without a mention of progress in Morocco. It would only be worthwhile issuing an update if there is something concrete – firm dates – to mention. If not, better to wait until January, then issue the CPR timed so that the RNS can also confirm that flow testing has actually started. What would I hope to see in an update? – A statement of strategy for 2024. Here's my PowerPoint!
Consider this:
💲More money was raised a few months ago than was required for the bare-bones plan.
💲Further cash has been saved by getting C-M cheaper than anticipated.
💲A reduced flow testing programme has saved a bit more.
💲There is the possibility of the CNG trucks being paid for by Afriquia.
💲Debt finance or leasing are possibilities for the rest of the CNG plant.
My guess is that Paul & Lonny are overheating their calculators working out the best way of using this cash to achieve:
🦖Short Term Objective – next 6 months – achieve positive cash flow, avoid further dilution, and be independent of a particularly fickle market. This may be either by -
🎇Testing just enough of Guercif to convert the MOU to a GSA, and getting the CNG operation up & running, or,
🎇Re-entering C-M Snowcap-1 and flowing oil. Given the frequently noted T & T traits of procrastination, incompetence, indolence & corruption, this would not be my personal choice, but since I know next to nothing about this specific opportunity, will have to defer to Paul & Lonny's expertise & experience.
🦖Mid Term Objective – 6-12 months – use the cash flow to work up Guercif to readiness for sale, by
🎇Drilling MOU-3 Twin to appraise the Middle Sands.
🎇Drilling Jurassic carbonate reef to determine reservoir characteristics and dimensions.
🎇Comprehensive testing of all remaining MOU-Fan horizons, using Sandjet for the friable reservoirs, as well as the newly-drilled Middle Sands & Jurassic. This would determine connectivity and volumes as well as flow rates for the whole basin.
🎇Sell all or a majority of PGVM, the Moroccan subsidiary.
🦖Longer Term Objective – 12-24 months
🎇Develop C-M, assuming it is the huge opportunity Paul claims - the Herrera Sands have produced one hell of a lot of oil, and this is just about the last undeveloped prospect.
🎇Set up a partnership CO2EOR business in T & T, as the country's authorities are now requiring for all oil operations - noteworthy that Paul is a member of the T & T EOR steering committee.
🎇Sell the Irish assets after the Greens are kicked out at the next elections – either Autumn 2024 or latest Spring 2025.
"The collectable 50p coin series featuring Tyrannosaurus, Stegosaurus and Diplodocus is available to purchase from The Royal Mint’s website, with colour editions of the coin also available. Prices start from £11."
https://www.royalmint.com/aboutus/press-centre/a-roar-some-reveal-the-royal-mint-unveils-new-50p-coins-featuring-iconic-dinosaur-specimens--including-t-rex/
For completeness, it should be pointed out that the statement “The key objective of the testing programme was to ensure that all required rigless test data were available within the extension of the Initial Period of the Guercif Petroleum Agreement and corresponding Exploration Permits enabled by Petroleum Agreement Amendment No.3.” was followed by "On 8 November 2023 PGVL was informed by ONHYM of an unforeseen administrative regulatory issue as a consequence of which the Joint Ministerial Order approving the Guercif Petroleum Agreement Amendment No.3 had yet to be issued.
As a result PGVL had to stand down at short notice mobilisation of its rigless testing well services and international personnel to await resolution of the issue by third parties. The matter was resolved and the Joint Ministerial Order is expected to be issued shortly."
So, we don't yet know if the JMO has been issued, in consequence of this testing may not be complete by February 5th, but this is not important - PRD have already met all the requirements for this extension, and the delay is the Moroccan government's fault, not PRD's.
Re the Cory Moruga CPR, there was no guarantee that this would be available in December - the wording was "An independent technical report for the Cory Moruga asset with indicative production profiles and near-term revenue projections is expected to be released before the end of 2023."
As @Ibiza observes, it would be extremely supportive for management credibility if the next RNS gives certainty to what is happing in both Morocco & T &T, and that this is preferably followed up by an interview in which Paul is able to rein in his more combative traits.
Hopefully this will be next week rather than next year. That would put an end to someone's price suppressing agenda, where every day starts with a 100K sell. I assume the troll campaign is associated with this - curious how three supposedly different accounts have all used the rather unpleasant term 'spaffing into the desert' (which is based on 1980's Oxford University undergraduate slang) that I have only seen used once elsewhere - in the malignant spewings of Tom Winnifrith. Curiously, both TW and a poster here also use the phrase 'the brain of half an egg sandwich'. Must be purely coincidental.
Re post today @ 18.20
I would be highly interested to hear how it is proposed to make cement and fertilizer just from electricity, solar or otherwise - both require large volumes of natural gas as part of the chemical process. Fertiliser is Morocco's largest export sector - 18% of the economy, cement is one of the largest internal sectors. The largest overall trade sector (export and internal consumption combined) is agriculture, which accounts for 40% of the country's employment and is thus a key to social stability. Agriculture requires fertilizer, which requires gas. Lots of gas. You can work out who owns the largest agricultural business in Morocco - Les Domaines Agricoles, formerly named Les Domaines Royaux.
Shell gas imported from Spain is currently $17 / mcf. This is too expensive for industrial customers to compete profitably with European peers, and is totally screwing the country's balance of payments. There is insufficient gas imported to meet current Moroccan power generation, let alone planned future requirements.
"Investors here would be well advised to observe the bigger strategic picture and develop independence of mind."
Indeed.
Between - Paul Griffiths. Lonny Baumgardner. Moyra Scott. Carl Kindinger. Nigel Haemoglobin. SYD197. Chesh. Graham Harrison. Cube. Porters. Me. Welloilbeefhooked. Trifle. Eurochamp.
Answer: AntiVenom has made unpleasant remarks about all these people and/or their views in just the last month.