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Let me fill that out a little, since it was me discussing possibilities with Graham. Please consider this to be thinking out loud, not a statement of fact, or even prediction.
What is considered a price-sensitive event requiring an RNS?
Not commencement of flow testing - it has already been announced that flow testing was to start imminently, and many of us at one stage believed that indeed it had started, despite the absence of an RNS to that effect.
What about signature of an MOU? Again, this has already been notified as being in late-stage preparation. This would be a non-legally binding agreement, almost certainly conditional upon the successful flow testing of two wells. Even though we assume this is in effect a detailed draft contract, it can reasonably be argued that it is not a price-sensitive event until it becomes effective, i.e. until finalisation of flow testing and conversion to a legal contract.
Our proposition is that the next announcement may be both completion of testing and a signed, binding, commercial agreement.
Everyone will now be asking when. I suggest you choose the date on which you believe testing started, allow 10 days for conventional testing of a reduced number of horizons for each well (20 days for those with limited maths skills), and decide if flow test results will be announced one well at a time or both. I have previously suggested testing started on 11/12th November and that at that date the MOU was with ONHYM for approval, but was ridiculed by the usual suspects. If I was correct, and results for both wells will be released together with signed contract details, the 'shock & awe' would occur during the first week of December. But as I said, that's just me thinking out loud. Think your own thoughts!
@Markie / Syd / Porters et al: Of course I would not post inside information even if I possessed it, which I do not. Therefore by definition what I have posted is speculation, for consideration and response by others. That speculation is based upon sensible ongoing discussions with a small group of PRD shareholders whom I conservatively estimate collectively to hold more shares than the PRD board of directors. They are all O & G and/or investment professionals able to make informed consideration of the PRD opportunity, and have taken the decision to back up their views with a substantial amount of their own money. Some of these people post on one or more of the social media, others choose not to.
I welcome opinions of others, and this board is here to encourage debate. However, I am curious as to what weight I should assign to your opinions. I have never seen from any of you an indication that you have specialist knowledge or experience, nor any point of view that is backed by logical analysis such that others can give it due consideration. I also suspect that anyone who consistently posts only negativity is unlikely to be an actual shareholder.
@Markie1970 - I know because people who have made contact with Paul have received a positive response from him. I hope you understand that I cannot make public the details of a private communication. This is nothing to do with inside information, just common politeness.
@Skittish. I have always said the big money will be made on a corporate transaction, not on the slow road to becoming a helium producer. Very impressive research - I hope people here are appreciative. A couple of questions:
* TPDC & HE1 are both looking for a gas in the Eyasi Basin - so it would make sense to pool exploration data, and this may be a simpler explanation. I would be 100% behind your interpretation of events if HE1's licences were changed to add hydrocarbons as well as just the current helium.
* Where do you think NHE fits into all this? Founder & largest shareholder Justyn Wood made his money finding oil further north in the EARS (also where Lorna worked with Tullow). NHE also has some prime ground at Eyasi. If you are correct on the hydrocarbons angle, NHE & HE1 could do some kind of licence area swap, or more likely, join forces. It could be either one large company working up both Rukwa & Eyasi; or else splitting the areas between them as two separate companies; or jointly selling off Rukwa (soon to be a proven play with three successful drills). The LSE/ASX listings could support any of these possibilities.
If pushed, I would put my money on one company, Lorna + Justyn expertise, dual listing to facilitate greater cash raising capability, going primarily after hydrocarbons, and selling off Rukwa to a big player in order to finance exploration at Eyasi. This would happen early next year after a joint Rukwa CPR.
Comments?
Following release of the 7th November RNS, I exchanged opinions with a small group of knowledgeable shareholders. Our views were about 80% in agreement -
* The T&T news had come earlier than expected, an immediate news release was necessitated, and it was thought advisable to mention the status of operations in Morocco, even though this was a little premature.
* If all clearances for testing were in place, and equipment and crews were available, you would not waste time and money leaving things on hold, but be testing at the earliest opportunity. If that were to be more than a week away, you would demobilise and save money.
* The only hold up was stated to be the MOU. Again, you would not be mentioning this in this way unless it was pretty much agreed β our collective view was that it was just awaiting ONHYM sign-off.
The conclusion was that the next RNS announcing an agreed MOU and commencement of testing would be either the same week (ie by Friday 10th), or the following week just ended β all agreed that something would have published by now, and most are perplexed that nothing has been.
After a further round of discussion over the last couple of days, the general view is that the delay is caused by one of two reasons β either ONHYM need to seek higher approval (why? - see my post of 26th October 09.03 - https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/keithoz/?page=3 ) or that this offtake agreement is now part of a larger and more comprehensive arrangement.
Quite a few folk have contacted the company to complain about the ambiguity of recent news releases, the apparent lack of coherent strategy, and the undefined or missed timetables. I understand that Paul has taken this on board, so I am hopeful of something more definitive being issued shortly β exactly when, I am now reluctant to guess.
In short, it is understood that expectations have not been met, but there is good reason for a delay. To those feeling concerned, may I remind you:
* Paul has more knowledge and experience of Moroccan hydrocarbon geology than anyone on Earth.
* Lonny has more experience of gas sales into the Moroccan market than anyone on Earth.
* Lonny & Moyra have drilled more gas wells in Morocco than anyone on Earth, 85% of which have found gas, which is an extraordinary record.
* Irrespective of testing, there is one whole lot of gas at Guercif.
* The Moroccan & European markets are in dire need of gas supply.
* Paul & Lonny have substantial PRD shareholdings and options, their objectives are aligned with ours.
* The NEDs, who have relevant O&G deal negotiation experience, have options that vest specifically on release of MOU-3 test results.
As always in O & G exploration, a little more patience is required. I do sympathise, being a somewhat impatient person myself π.
Some more on X today:
CUBE:
"Another savvy commentator feeling that events in #Guercif #Prd are crescendoing π @PredatorOilGas have alluded in *multiple* rns that an MoU for initial cng off-take is pending/imminent. This will be the ground level catalyst for MOU3+ test and MOU4 appraisal π¦
This is BIG."
Jasper13:
"#PRD letβs keep this simple β¦
MoU signed and announced this week, testing commenced.
Share price starts to re-rate. π
The size of the prize starts to be revealed.
Exit deal for Morocco. $$.."
Louis10 on lse 8 Nov 2023 20:34:
"I sold yesterday".
Even simpler, and certainly cheaper than flying to Morocco from Australia, is to read the recent RNSs, understand what they are saying, work out what procedures need to be followed, and know how long it takes to get things done. Thinly veiled suggestions of inside information are not necessary, it's all there out in the open. It will be an interesting week.
Cube agrees: https://twitter.com/__The_Cube__/status/1723770676933263444
"Imagine in next day or so #PRD release an rns detailing an MoU with a major Moroccan off-taker of gas.
Imagine the testing of the Moulouya fan/MOU3 is detailed to either have begun already or due to begin immediately.
Imagine the look on the faces of those sold short."
Takes care to be totally anonymous - major red flag. From his biography:
" I studied at University in London and, since then, I've been all over the world."
Which University? Was he actually enrolled on a course? If so, studying hat? Did he get a qualification? Doing what all over the world? Sitting in girlie bars smoking a bong?
"I know quite a bit about leasing mineral rights and obtaining government licences and permits, plus I am very familiar with the process of acquiring seismic, then drilling, completing and placing into production oil and gas wells."
Highly unlikely - all of these are separate specialist jobs. What is 'quite a bit'? What does 'very familiar with the process' mean? Never actually done any of this, but watched a couple of Youtube videos?
"I'm married and live with my wife and our cat".
Me too, but I don't try to fleece people for Β£1200 a year by telling them to buy on spud and sell before TD. Truly laughable.
They say you wait hours for a London bus, then three come along together - here's post #3.
We had previously discussed here the possibility that NewMed Energy was in line to buy PGVM. The rationale was that BP & ADNOC were finalising buying 50% of NewMed for $2 billion, NewMed were keen to expand beyond Israel, and that they were already in discussions with ONHYM about acquisition of Moroccan assets with the $2 bn.
Two things have happened since then. Firstly, independent assessors cast doubt on the value of assets being acquired, putting a question mark over the deal proceeding. Then Hamas did what they did, and Israel responded as they have. NewMed's Tamar gas field, its key cash generator, has been closed as a precaution against Hamas attack. I would be very surprised if the proposed deal is finalised. This would mean that NewMed no longer has cash for acquisitions, and sale of a Moroccan asset to what is perceived to be an Israeli company would be unacceptable in the current political environment.
I am reliably informed that NewMed were aware of all the goings on in Guercif, and therefore assume that BP & ADNOC were also. My money is on an acquisition of PGVM by BP/ADNOC direct. They know the project, are actively seeking new gas assets, have plenty of cash, and are viable partners from a political viewpoint.
@Buffin - Under ONHYM rules, it is allowable to ringfence an individual field, but there does not seem to be a definition of 'field'! It's complicated when MOU-3 and MOU-4 both tap into two different structures, especially if (as I believe but it is not yet proven) all those structures are connected. While it could be possible to retain an MOU-Fan based CNG operation, Paul has said on several occasions that he would prefer to sell all or a majority stake in PGVM.
I did not want to post anything unless I was pretty sure that it was more than just valueless speculation. Whether what follows is of value or not I will leave to your individual judgement - thinking of which, I think it is a little unfair for anonymous keyboard warriors to make personal attacks on individuals who do not conceal their identity or experience when they are trying to post helpful information. Anyway:
The T & T government agreed the Cory Moruga deal a couple of weeks earlier than expected. This is an improved deal for PRD, with sweet light crude Contingent Resources acquired at less than 50Β’ per barrel. PRD were obligated to RNS this, and added what they hoped was a comforting paragraph at the end, explaining that a big juicy deal was being finalised, and that testing would also be the start of gas production. Unfortunately, it wasn't worded as clearly or positively as it should have been (probably ONHYM influence).
I think, but do not know, that the offtaker is CΓ©rame Super. This GSA will be very profitable for PRD but will only use part of the potential gas from the MOU-Fan. The flow testing is not to support this GSA, but to determine how much surplus gas will be available for sending down the pipeline to Europe. I expect that MOU-3 testing has started this weekend, and that everything else should now be signed & sorted and already with ONHYM for approval of the announcements. I assume that PRD will be able to finalise the wording on Monday, with RNS on Tuesday. There is no reason why this should not include full details of the GSA, the testing process, CNG plant financing. and further drilling between now and the end of the year.
So Transformational Event #1 (Tuesday 14th November) is the forward profit flow from the GSA, TE#2 (late Nov/early Dec) is the amount of surplus gas flow and who is buying it, and TE#3 (late Dec) will be MOU-5/TIT-1/JUR-1. TE#4 will be sale of PGVM early next year. Obviously this is all just speculation on my part and should not be relied upon for any investment decision.
@Aligator. At 09.18 on 07 November I (geologist, not a 'downhole engineer') wrote:
"Two things seem encouraging here:
* Drilling encountered a lot of lumps of weathered basement rock (gneiss), indicating that there is a good transition zone of broken material - this means much greater surface area of helium-generating material, so more gas can be released,
* They started losing drilling mud very soon after hitting the unweathered basement rock - an indication of substantial fracturing of otherwise solid material - again this will facilitate release of gas fand/or increase the overall porosity for trapping helium.
Any more FUD I can counter before the share price climbs far above the reach of your pocket money?
Getting gas (of any kind) out of a fractured basement can be a bit of a gamble - just ask former shareholders of Hurricane Energy. Porosity can appear good, but it is the alignment and interconnectedness (is there such a word?) and even shape of the pores that determines whether you will get commercial gas flow. Two things seem encouraging here:
* Drilling encountered a lot of lumps of weathered basement rock (gneiss), indicating that there is a good transition zone of broken material - this means much greater surface area of helium-generating material, so more gas can be released,
* They started losing drilling mud very soon after hitting the unweathered basement rock - an indication of substantial fracturing of otherwise solid material - again this will facilitate release of gas fand/or increase the overall porosity for trapping helium.
Seems a very muted reaction to a significant degree of de-risking here and at NHE. Bought some more.
That's not at all what I was expecting. Seems very odd - I assumed the GSA was dependent upon test results, not the other way round. Must learn to read more slowly. Can only assume that the Cory Moruga payment has come out of the testing budget, and an upfront payment for the GSA needs to replace it. Not very happy, I'm sure others won't be either. PG must have very good reason to do this, just would be nice to know what is really going on.