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Challenger is doing some financial juggling - taking out a bridging loan to cancel the convertible loan note, in anticipation of near-term finance from the Cory Moruga sale to PRD. Now 10.5 billion shares in issue, plus a new set of 250M warrants issued today. Perhaps they might like to throw in Innis-Trinity for a few bob extra - looks like they need the money.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CEG/short-term-conventional-bridge-loan/16184406
Some of you are aware of the TDFI - Troll Density Forward Indicator. This is the number of green boxes on this board representing posters that I have filtered for providing malevolent nonsense. The higher the density of trolling posts, the greater the likelihood of positive news in the next couple of trading sessions. I have found it the only effective TA indicator.
I have just filtered colonpolyp for 20 worthless posts in the space of two hours - presumably it was going for some kind of record. Added to the other green boxes, this gives the highest reading of the TDFI I have ever seen for any company covered by lse.
Draw your own conclusions.
1. Maybe 1st test is still ongoing.
2. Maybe results are still being calculated & interpreted.
3. Maybe results from individual wells will not be released - only at end of the whole programme.
4. Maybe ONHYM are discussing matters with that nice Mr. Mohammed, who owns lots of gas-dependent industry, and who has personally led talks with US, EU & Israel to promote bilateral agreements.
My bet is on #3, but it's only my guess. One thing I do know - it's my bed time.
Q. (from danielpile) "Any guys from PRD there?..would have thought Paul would be attending "
A. (from Malcy) "Nope, no one although I messaged Paul to ask for a chat his reply was terse and to the point, he’s busy on the ground prepping the next test. "
NEXT test? You mean the one after the one that's just finished?
Just turned up this quote from 2022:
"“Errors are always possible but, contrary to the information relayed, the National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines does not use the term ‘discovery’ and treats the subject with great caution because words must be weighed. This is our guarantee to avoid a second Talsint affair,” says the associate researcher at the Policy Centre for the New South (Rabat)."
https://www.theafricareport.com/199829/will-morocco-hit-the-oil-jackpot/
@PredFan. You are asking if management know if they have gas yet. Since I don't know when they started testing, and don't know what tests they are running, that's a bit of a difficult question to answer. The nearest I can get is that management knew before the testing started that they were going to get a very good flow rate, just not the exact number.
There is also the small issue of approving the wording of any announcement. Morocco has an unfortunate history of premature announcements of self-reliance on hydrocarbons:
* 2000, King Mohammed VI, newly on the throne, went on national TV to announce a discovery of oil and gas at Talsint that would forever change the economic future of Morocco. Unfortunately the company involved, Lone Star Energy, was allegedly a scam, and there weren't any hydrocarbons.
* 2009 Repsol drilled Anchois-1, again announced as a great discovery. 14 years later, no sign of production.
* 2016 Sound Energy had a blowout party to celebrate the life changing discovery of measureless gas at Tendrara. 7 years later, we're still waiting.
* 2021, Europa Oil & Gas announced they had 2bn boe offshore Agadir. 2022 - revised down to 1Bn. 2023 - surrendered the licence.
I suspect approval will need to go higher than ONHYM.
Sorry, no flare at MOU-3 or MOU-1. Everything looks more intense in infrared yesterday - probably the increased ground heat due to sun / time of day at transit. I do not know what testing procedures are being undertaken, but it would be very lucky to catch a view of a flare if intermittent/isochronal flow testing is being performed, since the satellite transits every 2½ days. I assume that the flaring will be done in a pit (there was a Tweet of one being constructed at MOU-4), so may not even be readily visible from the ground during daytime. Someone asked about the PANR flare last year - this was done from the top of a 20+ metre mast right beside the Dalton Highway. Only oil & ngls were being flow tested, so all the gas was vented, and since it was a fracked bore, a 30-day continuous flow test was employed. Very visible from the ground, and also from satellite using infrared, given that the flare heat signature was contrasted with an ice & snow background. Not comparable with the PRD situation.
Petrowicki has a useful briefing on gas flow testing:
https://petrowiki.spe.org/Deliverability_testing_of_gas_wells
Much of this is rather over-technical, so here is a brief extract:
"Several deliverability testing methods have been developed for gas wells. Flow-after-flow tests are conducted by producing the well at a series of different stabilized flow rates and measuring the stabilized BHP {bottom hole pressure}. Each flow rate is established in succession without an intermediate shut-in period. A single-point test is conducted by flowing the well at a single rate until the BHFP {bottom hole flow pressure} is stabilized. This type of test was developed to overcome the limitation of long testing times required to reach stabilization at each rate in the flow-after-flow test.
Isochronal and modified isochronal tests were developed to shorten tests times for wells that need long times to stabilize. An isochronal test consists of a series of single-point tests usually conducted by alternately producing at a slowly declining sandface rate without pressure stabilization and then shutting in and allowing the well to build to the average reservoir pressure before the next flow period. The modified isochronal test is conducted similarly, except the flow periods are of equal duration and the shut-in periods are of equal duration (but not necessarily the same as the flow periods)."
Surely it is common knowledge that deep beneath the Swiss Alps there is a system of vast grottos, wherein tens of thousands of malign elves, sublimely skilled with the abacus, are employed by all the market makers. Every MM has an elf for each individual stock, and they spend all day plotting how to steal fractions of a halfpenny from dumb private investors. In this esoteric world, keeping a balanced book, profiting from spreads & volumes, algorithms, are all concepts unknown. This must be true, JH talks about nothing else all day and every day.
@Revoy - sorry, didn't read your post correctly. I had suggested an upside of 2 mmcfgd PER METRE of reservoir. Methodology & others have been using a little over 1 mmcfgd per metre of reservoir - this was based on data from wells drilled in the Rharb basin by Circle/SDX. However, the small size and lower pressure of those reservoirs meant that testing was done with the use of small diameter chokes - averaging around 32/64". I suspect (but do not know) that with overpressure and a reservoir that is large enough not to be quickly depleted, that PRD may be able to test with larger choke sizes, likely enabling higher flow rates per metre than out to the west.
Again, anyone with specialist knowledge of this please let us know your views.
@Revoy - I am in agreement with Jimmy's numbers - $270K per day profit net to PRD gives around $100M per year
@Carjcarj - I had asked a colleague about why he thought that sidewall coring had not been done at the same time as wireline in open hole. He suggested that with potentially unstable strata it would be best to do it after casing - I also did not know this was possible, but apparently this is now practicable - see
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/reservoir-solutions_%3F%3F%3F%3F-%3F%3F%3F%3F-%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F-side-wall-activity-7112171406716452865-hZ2a
"Side wall coring offers several advantages over conventional coring methods, such as rotary coring. It allows for the sampling of reservoir intervals that have already been drilled and cased,"
To add some additional perspective, if you take a look at Fig. 3-25 on p.45 of the latest CPR (p.138 of the whole Prospectus),
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2023/08/20230810-Project-Allossaurus-Prospectus-FINAL.pdf
you will see that they have allowed three weeks for Sandjet testing of each bore. PRD are currently testing a smaller number of targets per bore, which are larger and therefore easier to locate and perforate, using a standard penetration gun that is a bit faster than Sandjet. Maybe my suggested 7 days per bore may be a bit too short, perhaps we should allow a few extra days each.
My knowledge of testing is rather out-of-date - hopefully there are folks here who can give us a second (and better) opinion?
Someone on the other board is suggesting the need for extended well tests means that we will not receive results until mid-November. Others here are either getting nervous (or more likely pretending to in order to unsettle others), so I will re-post here what I have just put on the other board:
"You would only do something like a 30-day flow test if you have a bore that is fracked / low porosity / low permeability / into a small reservoir. With the conditions that are likely at MOU-3 (excellent poroperm / huge reservoir / overpressure) an intermittent test would be adequate - a few hours on, a few off, repeated 3 or 4 times. However, they still need to set up & calibrate equipment, do the wireline to double check the depths of zones of interest, and presumably run transient pressure tests to get an idea of reservoir volume, plus take sidewall cores so that they can relate poroperm to pressure.
This is why I had earlier suggested 7 days for each of MOU-3 & MOU-1, plus 3 days for ONHYM to approve what is likely to be a very important announcement. If they are going to announce just MOU-3, then I expect to hear something this week. If both results together, then end of next week or beginning of the week after. I think a lot of people are getting ahead of themselves and worrying too much.
@BH - steel tubing that is cemented in place inside the hole to stop the hole collapsing. If you want to test the potential reservoirs that have been shut off behind the casing, you perforate with a special gun - here's a video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbUagy8snmc
Sorry - for reasons I don't understand, you got links for MOU-3 twice. Here's MOU-1, let's hope it works this time:
https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/?zoom=18&lat=34.28433&lng=-3.44267&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fsh.dataspace.copernicus.eu%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fa91f72b5-f393-4320-bc0f-990129bd9e63&datasetId=S2_L2A_CDAS&fromTime=2023-10-15T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-10-15T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=2_FALSE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22&cloudCoverage=30
There is clearly a lot going on at both MOU-1 & MOU-3. I am using the new Copernicus imaging function for Sentinel-2. These are very long links, you may need to copy & paste into your browser, rather than just click on them. You will need to be patient, they load v-e-r-y slowly. Here is the Sentinel-2 view of MOU-3 in false colour for 15th Oct 2023:
https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/?zoom=18&lat=34.32132&lng=-3.38545&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fsh.dataspace.copernicus.eu%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fa91f72b5-f393-4320-bc0f-990129bd9e63&datasetId=S2_L2A_CDAS&fromTime=2023-10-15T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-10-15T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=2_FALSE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22&cloudCoverage=30
You can then click on the date at upper right, and pull up the image for 20th October (17th was cloudy) by clicking on that date on the calendar. You can then click backwards and forwards between the two to see the changes. You can even line up a whole load of different dates and make a time lapse movie. I've used false colour since I think it gives greatest clarity - if you don't like it, there is also true colour and a range of other spectra including IR, which will show flares best.
Here's MOU-1 for 15th Oct, same instructions as above:
https://dataspace.copernicus.eu/browser/?zoom=18&lat=34.32132&lng=-3.38545&themeId=DEFAULT-THEME&visualizationUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fsh.dataspace.copernicus.eu%2Fogc%2Fwms%2Fa91f72b5-f393-4320-bc0f-990129bd9e63&datasetId=S2_L2A_CDAS&fromTime=2023-10-15T00%3A00%3A00.000Z&toTime=2023-10-15T23%3A59%3A59.999Z&layerId=2_FALSE_COLOR&demSource3D=%22MAPZEN%22&cloudCoverage=30
Sentinel-2 transits every 2½ days, images load a few hours after transit.
Finally, here is an interesting site that I posted recently that shows flaring - unfortunately the data usually appears about a week after the satellite transit. You will need to adjust the date range to the last couple of weeks and click 'apply':
https://viirs.skytruth.org/apps/heatmap/flaringmap.html#lat=34.2785&lon=-3.39203&zoom=12&offset=15
Just caught up on the pages & pages of posts during my nighttime. I suggest folks re-read Gogs @ 0924, Joe80 @1202 and Wasendo @1456. I agree with their interpretation of the latest photo tweet - the drill string is out, casing & cementing are underway. Can't say RNS Monday for certain, but you wouldn't be spending the best part of a $1M completing the hole for testing if there was nothing to test.