Member Info for KeithOz

Slightly O/T, but interesting. As part of the Throne Day announcements, Guercif (city population 133K) is benefitting from a new 190-bed regional hospital, an upgrade to 70km of the N6 (the main east-west highway), a new stadium, upgrades to local roads and water supplies, and the setting up of clubs to empower local women. Should be complete about the same time as the new Guercif - Nador Freeport motorway. I wonder where all this money is coming from?

F & M, on a slightly more serious note, Predator has a limited amount of online info for AI to chew through. It is vital to check the references that are used for the response - on each of Google AI, ChatGPT and Grok, I have discovered my own posts on here used as a reference in answer to my question, which is the opposite of useful.

Sorry, I don't put any faith in AI to answer a question like that correctly. It's just a guess, nothing more.

@tincan - what's your source please?

The speech would have been recorded a few days ago, unlikely that definitive results would have been available at the time. He would not want to repeat the mistake of his first throne day speech, where he announced Morocco's energy self-sufficiency based on the 'discovery' at Talsint, which turned out to be fraudulent. It was this 'Talsint Affair' that has resulted in an excess of caution in official announcements. The second half of this article outlines the issue:

https://www.middleeasteye.net/fr/actu-et-enquetes/maroc-petrole-gaz-decouverte-agadir-talsint-exploration.

btw, I do not expect tomorrow's RNS to say "We have blasted the hell out of the double casings without success, so are sending down the monkey with a Black & Decker".

I got up early to listen to the speech, in the belief that there would be a mention of energy self-sufficiency & Guercif in it, followed by an RNS Wednesday morning. I now have the official translation. Nothing in it of relevance to us. I assume we should still get the MOU-3 RNS tomorrow. https://www.cg.gov.ma/en/node/12492

Substitute Guercif for Jersey 😏

https://ar.hibapress.com/details-644659.html

@black29. This section was not drilled with overbalanced mud pressure, since no gas, let alone overpressured gas, was expected at this depth. Therefore, there will not be any formation damage caused by drilling mud injection. The difficulty here is the need to penetrate two layers of steel casing before perforating the reservoir rock. The extra casing will adsorb some of the explosive energy, likely resulting in smaller diameter and shorter holes. This certainly can still be done successfully, and clearly a lot of thought has gone into the best way of doing it, and the oversight of Italfluid gives me confidence. I guess we will find out next week.

MOU-3 A-Sands are overpressured by 122psi. Natural gas pressure increases by about 0.225psi per metre depth, so at a depth of 350m, normopressure would be about 78psi. Add the two together, we have an actual pressure of a nice round 200psi. That would not only blow your tyre rim off, but probably the fabled bloody doors as well.

@CCC. How many agreements do you think are up for negotiation in Morocco?

* CNG with Afriquia Gaz apparently finalised conditional upon MOU-3 results.

* Farmout of Jurassic project in exchange for financing 3D seismic and further drilling (MOU-6, +).

* Collaboration on Helium across the licence area.

* Other gas / oil / condensate prospects across the licence.

Asking for a friend.

@donal. These posts are predominantly clarification of information already presented in official communications. I would think that many whose comprehension skills are not at post-doctoral level would find that helpful. I have never seen disclosure of inside information, nor investment recommendation, so all is fair and above board. Please continue, T.

btw, you may wish to re-read the post on 24th Jan 2025, 15.51 "I thought his reasoning for not scheduling an immediate test on mou5 seemed completely sound. They won't know how many layers to perforate and test until a couple of months after the drill. Why would they waste money by guessing and buying equipment without knowing what they need?"

F&M Last time I was in Genève it was in Switzerland. Has it been invaded recently? Good research, both of you.

Would someone like to check this account number?

@Snakeman. My Moroccan contacts are neither confirming nor denying that the 20M shares went into Moroccan hands, or if those hands were holding any particular passport at the time. What I can confirm is that unlike previous placings, no one is dumping shares on the market for a quick profit, and no one is coming on here claiming that the share price will inevitably fall down to the placing price.

Part 2.

FINANCIAL

💥Profitability

“The SLR CPR (January 2022) gives an unrisked NPV per BCF of discovered gas of US$1.99 million. This is based on a large-scale gas-to-power development using a gas price of US$9/mcf and results in a low net-back of just US$1.99/mcf.” and

“The SLR CPR gave an unrisked NPV of US$592 million for the net Best Estimate resources of 295 BCF” (CNG, for just one reservoir structure)

www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/drilling-and-operations-update-3dby10znl7nldot.html

and see ranges for multiple scenarios:

pp. 6 & 7, https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/09/19204501/PRD-Proactive-Presentation-Final-09.09.2021-1.pdf

💥Tax environment.

“Fiscal terms in Morocco are attractive. The state royalty for gas production is only 5% and is applied after the first 10.6 BCF of net production to the operator. Corporation tax is levied at a rate of 31%. However, the Moroccan government also applies a 10-year ‘holiday’ before corporation tax is payable and any unused tax losses can be offset against the tax due.”

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/03/Predator-Oil-Gas-Corporate-update-7-March-2022-1.pdf

💥Business environment & stability.

“Not only is Morocco an important market in its own right, it is also becoming the premier commercial gateway to Africa, as well as Africa’s bridge to Europe. Africa presents the single largest growth opportunity in the world”

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/overseas-business-risk-morocco/overseas-business-risk-morocco

💥Regulatory.

“Oil and Gas Regulation in Morocco: one of the most attractive schemes in the world”

https://www.cliffordchance.com/content/dam/cliffordchance/briefings/2014/03/oil-and-gas-regulation-in-morocco-one-of-the-most-attractive-schemes-in-the-world.pdf

Part 1,

I posted this nearly two years ago, it may be of interest to newer shareholders, so here it is again, with very minor updating.

RESOURCE

💥Areal extent.

MOU turbidites 30+km², Ma sands extent of 58km²:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/completion-of-mou-3-drilling-and-logging-77nekzdof9lxnu8.html and

MOU-NE (Titanosaurus) 187km², 6TCF, plus helium potential.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/update-on-mou-5-drilling-plans-helium-potential-iwxeocrlgyuv5d6.html

💥Porosity & permeability.

“At deposition the independent studies indicated that these sediments were likely to have 35 - 40% porosity and permeabilities between 2000 and 5000 Md. Lack of compaction and consolidation suggests that poroperm conditions would not have been significantly impacted through burial and therefore good reservoir quality would potentially be retained, as supported by the post-well NuTech log analysis.“

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/drilling-and-operations-update-3dby10znl7nldot.html

💥Reservoir thickness.

MOU-1 testing of 22 reservoir intervals:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/operations-update-covzavfrw2aj6tq.html

43m in MOU-3:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/completion-of-mou-3-drilling-and-logging-77nekzdof9lxnu8.html

64m in MOU-4, plus Jurassic

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/mou-4-update-41ps08lleqbs03n.html

💥Flow per metre thickness of reservoir.

In the Rharb basin (continuous with Guercif) reservoir sands of only 1m thickness flowed at more than 1mm cfgd, thicker reservoirs at higher flow rates per vertical metre:

https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comment

💥Overpressure

Significant overpressure in A-sands MOU-3.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/interim-drilling-update-mou-3-a1ahzbsju1a49lu.html

and MOU-1 - chart, right side of p.13

https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/09/19204501/PRD-Proactive-Presentation-Final-09.09.2021-1.pdf

Let's look at things from a greater distance.

* This placing was at a 42% PREMIUM to the closing price one week ago.

For Morocco:

* It allows the Italfluid crew to steamroller the testing programme on to other reservoirs and other wells in a highly cost-effective manner.

* If successful, this confirms economics of flow rates, reservoir connectivity, and total gas volume. We are talking 00's of BCF, not 20.

* This gives a larger and more credible valuation to the Guercif assets.

* That provides greater leverage in negotiations and reduces our reliance for finance on Afriquia Gaz or other parties, so we get a better deal(s).

* By starting FEED it accelerates the movement to monetisation.

For Trinidad:

* It removes uncertainty about CEG deal closure and share payment

* Although we still await MEEI approval of ownership of CEG oilfields, we should get immediate access to the significant CEG infrastructure, skilled personnel, contractual arrangements and development kit. This speeds up the workovers of currently-owned fields.

* This combined with the accelerated work on the drilling rig, should enable a timely start to Snowcap-3, which has very significant potential resource - 2U / P50 recoverable of 12.9 MMBbl oil plus 9 BCF gas (T&T ITR Jan 2024, p.23).

* I'm not normally happy with a placing, but this one is most definitely accretive. imho it gives great value for the money.

"Why are they only testing one zone?" Because that's what they said they will do in the last two RNSs. Any further testing will be contingent upon results from this first test, and I suspect, contingent upon agreement with Afriquia Gaz that includes funding from one or more of * Reimbursement of work to date, * Gas pre-purchase * A loan similar to the SOU arrangement.

@Matt. Come on now, I didn't say 7 days, I said results w/c 28th! For all we know, they might have started operations anywhere between last Friday and this morning.

RNS today says testing has started and will take ten days - pleased to see that they are sticking to my schedule 😁