Member Info for KeithOz

The suggestions made for perforating & flow testing multiple horizons across several wells make a lot of sense -doing everything back-to-back would be a lot cheaper, since the expense of mobilisation & demobilisation of teams and equipment can be a large proportion of the total costs. The added advantage is the flexibility of response dependent upon results. However, such an extended operation would take time and money, and is not what we have been told will happen.

RNS 06 May 25: "The perforated Ma Sand in MOU-3 continues to be under consideration for an operation to increase drawdown pressure to attempt to bring the well into potential gas production, however this will be delayed until after the "A" Sand test results are known."

RNS 01 July 25: "we will update the market this month on the execution of the testing programme for the shallow "A Sand" in MOU-3, for which we are fully-funded. We will announce a collaboration agreement for the design, financing and execution of the initial phase of the MOU-3 development upon publication of the test results."

Given the above, what is the likely schedule? I suggest:

* w/c 21/7 - A-Sands perforation and testing continues.

* w/c 28/7 - Announcement of results and conditional deal with Afriquia Gaz for CNG operation, hopefully includes an upfront payment that can be applied to further work by Italfluid. Testing of Ma Sands.

* Throughout August - Possible testing of other horizons / other wells, conditional upon money being available. Release of MOU-5 update. Release of Helium survey results.

* End August - All the pieces of the Morocco jigsaw should be in place, either a comprehensive takeout deal with an indigenous party, or significant farm-in from an international group.

@Lorenzo - My apologies if I was a little harsh, I'm probably over-sensitive, having been subjected to years of troll attacks, personal insults, social media account hacking, and even personal threats. All the best with your investment here.

Finally - SEABRIGHT is back. That's a sign from the Earth Gods that everything is going to be just fine.

@Matt. You can use dual completion, I've stuck a diagram on X:

https://x.com/KQuick20704342/status/1947061263131165039

I would just add to all the other reasons, that by testing each zone separately you are able to obtain information (initial pressure, rate of pressure decline during test, and speed of build up after stopping flow test) that enables you to estimate each individual reservoir volume. Similar testing of nearby wells can also indicate continuity of the reservoirs if the pressure characteristics are the same.

O/T @Sandy - see the last 5 seconds of this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaoYsGQ_-Wc&ab_channel=EleSkelterdanu

@Sandy. Italfluid have contained stacks which burn the gas without a visible flare or heat signature. However, I am pretty sure that the equipment on site includes a large compressor and two pressure tanks, so I suspect the gas will be saved. Pumping back into the well at the same time as testing would be like someone blowing into the other end of your bugle while you were trying to play it - I'm not a musician, but I suspect this wouldn't work too well.

"I think we all to do more research, especially PG."

Had you left it at 'I think we all [need?] to do more research', I would have agreed. As you have chosen to phrase it, it is insulting.

May I suggest some areas you might like to research:

*John Tingas is a reservoir engineer. Suggest you find out what they do for a living - hint, it has nothing to do with detecting salt or choosing drilling mud.

* Chance of success. There is gcos and ccos - geological & commercial respectively. Easy to find out how they are calculated. There is no accepted way to calculate the chance of success of perforating an individual hole, but if you or I tried it, I am sure it would be 0%. Italfluid are the best in the game, so that's why some are suggesting 100%. I prefer to wait & see.

* Where did you get the idea that PG 'almost lost' MOU-1. News to me.

* You think the helium in MOU-3 WILL flow, but think the lower level gas in MOU-3 COULD flow. You do realise that helium is only in the lower-level gas in MOU-3, and we do not know the concentration?

* There will always be dodgy individuals working any high risk/high reward investment scenario, and I have a pretty good idea of the identities of some of them. I am in at least weekly contact with about 20 long-term investors here, many of whom hold over 1% of the company. They are not manipulative traders, they share my view that they will continue to hold/add until PG sells the business for them.

You are of course free to hold whatever views you wish, and invest accordingly - it is your money after all. Since it is your money, before you invest it, I would hope that you would familiarise yourself with O & G exploration, the operations of this company in particular, and how deals are likely to be structured in this industry.

"I cannot see where the money will come from to pay us other than about 20p a share".

Really? That's £140M. The latest data I can find for Al Mada is way back in 2018. Revenue $3.78 Bn. Profit $520M. They have at least doubled their size in the last seven years. Their resources subsidiary Managem, has a controlling interest in Sound Energy, and is currently finalising the construction of an LNG plant by Italfluid. LNG & CNG are different market sectors, so complementary, not competition. The LNG offtake agreement is with Afriquia Gaz.

Perhaps some here can recognise some familiar names in the above, and maybe formulate some possibilities.

A reminder that Italfluid are already just down the road, working with Sound Energy, who have an offtake agreement with Afriquia Gaz. What a nice cosy arrangement. I'm short on time, so here's an AI summary:

Sound Energy's Role:

Sound Energy is the lead company in the Tendrara project, securing rights to the project and partnering with Italfluid and other entities like Afriquia Gaz and Sinmarco.

Italfluid's Role:

Italfluid is the main contractor for the LNG plant construction and operation, transitioning from a vendor-financed lease agreement to an EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction) contract, which streamlines project management and control.

Project Scope:

The project includes a small-scale LNG facility in the Tendrara Concession, with the goal of producing and delivering LNG to customers like Afriquia Gaz.

Timeline and Progress:

Construction began in March 2022, and the facility is expected to begin operations in 2025. Sound Energy has also secured funding through loan agreements and has been working on well completion and equipment installation.

Financial Aspects:

Sound Energy has secured funding through loan agreements with entities like Afriquia Gaz and has made initial payments to Italfluid to advance the project.

Strategic Partnerships:

Sound Energy emphasizes strategic partnerships to leverage technical, financial, and commercial expertise and de-risk the project.

I suspect they are there to do a little more than 'measure & calibrate flows'.

PG has stated that MOU-2 actually drilled through some of the gas-charged reservoir, it just wasn't realised at the time due to the extent of the sticky mud. Can the sticky mud be overcome? Yes. See the diagram on p. 17 of the Jan 2024 ITR. MOU-3 was successfully drilled through the slump, using a different drilling mud. It is very possible that the MOU-2 1000ft gas interval is sitting waiting - apart from the issue of the drill clogging, everything else about the location looks perfect. Why hasn't it been re-drilled? PG knows what is there and can demonstrate that to those who matter - he isn't that concerned about the opinions of random individuals on here, only the opinions of the industry partners who are going to buy in.

I was a little surprised that if PRD was already using Zenith, that they would bring in Italfluids for a relatively minor well test. My conclusion was the same as Graham's, that they are there because of their expertise in CNG plant construction & operation.

I've put the latest MOU-3 testing photos on X, in case not everyone has access. Will F&M beat me to it copying here?

https://x.com/KQuick20704342/status/1945774461082554843

This project is now moving quickly, with the final section (Guercif A2 motorway to Saka) well defined. I have put some photos on X, taken last week. Interesting that the MOU-2 pad area is to be the site of the CNG plant - right next to the junction of the two motorways. Whether that is just a happy coincidence, or has been planned for the last three years, I will leave you to decide.

https://x.com/KQuick20704342/status/1945771529343811830

@Aims23 - https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news?tab=news-explorer

Haven't seen anything yet, but the pigeon may need to rest halfway.

With reference to Paul's statement "what might be under it", this presumably relates to what might be under the Triassic, which is the lowest section of the Mesozoic. Readers who have been here for several years may recall that mention has been made of three main systems at Guercif that are prospective for hydrocarbons - Neogene (MOU-1 to 4), Mesozoic (Jurassic & Triassic) and the as yet unexplored Palaeozoic. IMO, under the Triassic, in order of increasing depth will be:

* Carboniferous interbedded limestones & shale potential reservoirs.

* Silurian 'hot shale' high carbon content source rock - underlying much of north & east Morocco.

* Ordovician potential reservoirs - as in some major Tunisian discoveries.

But that's for another day.

1). Paul Griffiths in post MOU-5 Flagstaff interview, 00m 30s:

We hit all the horizons we expected to hit, but what we didn't expect to hit was some salt .... and therefore, made a SUBTLE DIFFERENCE to where we were on structure"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHAoqrDkT9k&ab_channel=CoreFinance

2). Paul Griffiths, RNS 1st July 2025:

"MOU-5 is an important well as it has introduced a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT UNDERSTANDING of the key Mesozoic [Jurassic + Triassic, no Cretaceous at Guercif] section on the flanks of the Guercif biogenic gas system and thus what might be under it as well."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PRD/trinidad-acquisition-update/17111680

My caps. I am really curious as to what has changed in the three months between these statements, it must surely be significant. Hopefully us poor shareholders will also have a completely different understanding by the end of August.

Flare.

The initial A-Sands operation should not take that long. We don't know when the photos were taken, but clearly a lot more equipment and people will be on site. Since explosive perforation of a double layer of casing is involved, I would think they will proceed cautiously😕. Although this reservoir has not been wireline logged, it is relatively thick (11m) and shallow (339 - 350m), so will be difficult to miss. They will need to measure to the correct depth with the winch, then attach the perf guns and run down again to that level.

Once successfully perforated, an initial pressure reading will be taken. I assume that an intermittent flow test procedure will be followed. This involves measuring the flow over perhaps six hours, shutting off for a few hours, then flowing again. This would be repeated for 48 - 72 hours, with pressure readings recorded at the start and finish of each interval - from this data, you can make initial calculations of likely long term flow rates and reservoir volume.

Management will want to assess this data properly before release, so the earliest we are likely to get results is next week. I don't know if the pan is to do an extended flow test after that, or move on to the Ma-Sands as suggested in the May 6th RNS. The 1st July RNS also told us that an update for MOU-5 will be released after MOU-3 test results, so likely an interesting few weeks ahead.

For those not on Flagstaff's mailing list, I have posted the (not very exciting) photos on X:

https://x.com/KQuick20704342/status/1944642568416801235

Some background to this:

https://www.radiokerry.ie/news/planning-body-asks-minister-to-clarify-policy-before-deciding-on-north-kerry-lng-terminal-441310