Member Info for KeithOz

Re-closure is apparently correct, this from the UK Maritime Trade Organisation a few minutes ago. Back to square one.

https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents

Attack UKMTO #28082035

18 April 2026

UKMTO WARNING 037-26 - ATTACK Report Date:18 Apr 2026 Report Time: 0920UTC Issue Date:18 Apr 2026 Source: Master UKMTO has received a report of an incident 20NM northeast of OMAN. The Master of a Tanker reports being approached by 2 IRGC gun boats, no VHF challenge that then fired upon the tanker. Tanker and crew are reported safe. Authorities are investigating.

Two headlines in the last five minutes.

The Age: US-Iran war live updates: Strait of Hormuz ‘completely open’, Iran says

Al Jazeera: Iran war live: Hormuz Strait shut down again over US ‘piracy’, says Tehran

@Donal: lok Sygmaa chea choncheate barang haey rsanow knong tikrong li yo ng . Phriyea robsa keat mk pi khett bat dambn bratesa kampouchea .

I would have thought that FO & DYOR were well understood, but it appears there are some here whose ignorance is only matched by their rudeness.

F & M - that was the final image sent back by my attack drone.

Jeez, three full pages of carp here just while I was eating dinner. Some of you people need to get a life.

I find it very odd that someone who has misspent much of the last couple of years trying to mock and undermine everything I say here, is now seeking my advice. Simple answer - fo & dyor.

For others here: Small companies generally employ small consultancies, since they obtain a more personal and cost-effective service. I have not engaged Tim/Scorpion to produce a technical report for either an acquisition or a divestment opportunity; in the six years he has been running his own business I have worked only with large US multinationals and run a JV with a Gazprom subsidiary - not in his area of speciality.

However, I have had previous interaction with Merlin Energy Consultants, where Tim worked for a number of years. I know his name and good reputation - perhaps Bill Wilks will provide an independent reference if you are thinking of engaging Tim. I read numerous CPRs / ITRs - those written by Tim are imho clear and highly detailed, yet concise. Importantly, if he does not think there is enough data to make an estimate or recommendation, he will say so. Unfortunately, this is not the case for certain, much larger, outfits.

If anyone requires a more comprehensive answer, I am happy to quote them for my services by the project or by the hour.

P.S. I have put a small quiz on X.

@JH. I don't give a monkey's rectum what the L2 average was. I am referring to actual trades, which yesterday fell into two distinct ranges. One range was 3.1p to 3.23p - these are clearly sells. There is then a gap until the next range, which is from 3.33p to 3.5p. All within this range are buys. The 2M trade at 3.375p is clearly within the range of buys. Why are you trying so hard to ignore the actual trades?

"2 Million was a sell. Bid 3.33p Offer 3.46 approx all session."

Except for when the bid was 3.1p for much of the day, and sells were made at 3.1p, including when this 2M buy was completed. Nice try, though.

Re Block Energy's farm out deal in Georgia. The most basic research will show why they got a deal whose "low value was not to some peoples liking":

* Russia invaded parts of Georgia in 2008, currently militarily occupies 20%, and keeps creeping the borders forward.

* The election of 2024 was illegitimate, putting a Russian puppet government in place.

* Mass demonstrations have occurred in Tblisi every day throughout 2025 & 2026, despite hundreds of demonstrators, including journalists, being arrested, beaten & tortured.

* The Contingent Resources declared by Block are mostly 'management estimates', based on an old ITR which did not cover the area that management has estimated.

* You may have noted the very low value per TCF assigned by company management, and confirmed by the acquisition price. This is because the (illegitimate) Georgian government requires gas to be sold domestically at a low price and imposes high taxes.

* Not surprising that it is a Chinese SOE that has become the partner - the first Chinese hydrocarbon deal in Europe - nobody else would touch it.

To suggest that the Block deal is a valid comparator for predicting the value of a PRD in Morocco is at best misleading.

@redmonkeydave. It's quite normal to have a contract that includes options of that nature, but if there was either change of operatorship or acquisition of a majority share of the licence, it would get complicated. This would require Ministry of Finance & Ministry of Energy approval, and ONHYM would have the right to make a counter offer. In a situation like that, I would draft the contract backwards - agree licence transfer or farm down with all parties, agree the price, and get an undertaking from ONHYM not to put in a pre-emptive offer, but all this to be conditional upon a minimum flow rate from MOU-6.

Strange Oilprice article. It assumes that O & G companies will make all that extra dosh ($234 billion) from an increased oil price which will stay at $100 per Bbl all year, which it won't. It also seems to have forgotten that the amount of oil shipped will be drastically reduced, shipping logistics are in an expensive state of chaos, production cutbacks will necessitate expensive well remediation, and war-related damage to infrastructure (substantial) will have to be remedied - as a war risk, this will not be insured. Still, there should be a bit left over for PRD.

@Ibiza - UK main market listed companies must file their accounts within four months of the end of the Financial Year. So, PRD has ten working days left.

@Rambo. I think both possibilities are still open. What I found interesting was keeping the option open to drill MOU-6 deeper, into the large thermogenic horizons. You wouldn't do that if your intention was just to supply a CNG/LNG operation with a limited market capacity. You also wouldn't (couldn't) do that if you had already completed the hole for production from the upper levels. I suspect that competing proposals are being played off against one another.

re. the 5th August Exploitation Concession application date. An application has to be made at least 3 months before the licence period expiry, which is November 5th. What I do not know is if the data is convincing enough, could an EC application be made without further drilling and testing? Whatever, this will require joint ONHYM / PRD / partner agreement if the licence is farmed down at all, since all would become responsible for their share of development expenses. I guess we just need to be patient, even if for some that is wearing rather thin.

Well done @Dakar. you were correct, if only just, so it is not you who is the deluded one. Yesterday's spread was 3.1 - 3.5 all day except for the first hour. Oh look, today's spread is also 3.1 - 3.5. The apparent drop today reported here is taken from a UT at 3.5 last night. The last buy within market hours was at 3.43. Latest buy today is 3.48. Now, I have useful things to do...

R*A*C*I*S*T

some here think it's a clever idea to copy their own posts from the other bulletin board and post them here under a different name, and av has done this twice yesterday. however, he has edited the version posted here to omit a slur on me - presumably because he thinks i would not read the original post elsewhere - and a ****** comment concerning the late adnan samarrai.

here is my own post from there today that illustrates the underhand nastiness that is going on behind the scenes:

[quote edited out from original post]

"i do hope the faithful sheep spotted the man from down unders public admission earlier in the week that he is actively trading this share !!"

"why are you posting blatant lies? that's a rhetorical question, since i know all you are able to do is make abusive comments about this company, its management and shareholders. it would appear that you are completely ignorant of the company's operations, the oil & gas industry, and business operations in general. so what qualifies you to suggest investment advice here? for the record, i am still buying at this depressed level, which is rather different from trading. i initially bought prd shares in 2018, when the guercif licence was first acquired. i have not sold any.

i have also reported your ****** comment, which is additional evidence that you are just an abusive loser, jealous of those who have actually achieved something with their lives".

Some complaints that yesterday's RNS said nothing about a deal in Morocco. I disagree. As has been pointed out here already, the key sentence was “In anticipation of further developments in Morocco in respect of the Guercif Licence”, then went on to give three potential scenarios for the planned drill parallel to MOU-3, which we have been calling MOU-6. This was very interesting, since originally, we were given just the one scenario – drill down 900m through three biogenic gas reservoirs, giving enough gas for a CNG and/or LNG development (shallow A-Sands 339-350m, with longer-term additional supply from the Ma-Sands & TGB-6 Sands 815-895m).

It's worth going back to the Proactive interview in July 2023

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thyYwq0VXTA

At 2m08s, PG says about MOU-3:

“What was amazing about that well was that every single target we passed through, there were some indications of gas. It confirmed to us that the overall structural picture that we had decided to test in this particular well was valid right from the top of the sequence to the bottom of the sequence. Importantly it showed that gas had migrated all the way up to the top of the section, to 339m, so anything in contact with that charging system would be charged with gas”. [Gas detection all the way down to 1434m].

“A phenomenal well for us in terms of expectations pre-drill were far outweighed by what we actually ended up with”.

Further analysis of results showed that the Ma/TGB-6 sequences extended between MOU-1 & MOU-3, over a closure of 81km². That's a lot of gas – far more than would be required for CNG/LNG.

The January 2024 ITR based on these results has now been updated for the MOU-1 & MOU-3 structure, and this importantly includes revised volumetric estimates based on NuTech analysis of the logging. It was more recently announced that a separate ITR was being compiled for the TGB-6 sequence. The updated ITR is now with ONHYM and potential partners. Once an Exploitation Concession is granted, ONHYM will be required to pay their share of costs, so will be intimately involved in any commercial discussions.

There are now three possible objectives for the new well – why the change? It suggests to me that there is more than one deal under discussion, one of which could make use of much larger volumes of gas than the CNG / LNG market can handle.

The application for an Exploitation Concession must be made by August 5th. PG has said the new drill spud will be before the end of July. Drilling materials need to be ordered in advance, and 3 months lead time has been suggested. You do not order and pay in advance for drilling materials unless you are sure of what you will need, and who is paying.

As @Rambo and others have pointed out, we must be close to decision time.

I'm struggling as well - 'worDs'.

It seems that some here are struggling with the big wors and numbers. Let me help out.

Trinidad.

We now expect 25% more oil than before. This is likely to flow at twice the rate we expected before. It will be twice the profit per barrel. This means that profit each day from Snowcap-3 is likely to be four times what we expected (2 x 2 = 4).

Morocco.

The adults are still talking about one or more deals, we'll let you know when they've finished talking. Whatever they decide, PRD will benefit from gas flowing from MOU-6. The plans for this have been finished by the cleverest adults in the world.

The drilling fluid is supplied by SLB. The well is designed by SLB. It will be drilled under their supervision.

https://www.slb.com/products-and-services/innovating-in-oil-and-gas/completions/fluids-and-tools/drill-in-fluids/flopro-nt-water-based-reservoir-drill-in-fluid