Member Info for GRH...

I believe the upside to be astonishing

I believe the geological risk to be less than many have suggested

But that is not to say this is without risk...

In drilling there are always risks....sorry...

They are unavoidable

But capable of mitigation!!!!!!!!!

BTW...
Perhaps some might recall my posts regarding the 'bright spot '

which many thought ...stated...
was a stand alone feature...

But I said was likely to be integral to the more extensive sand bodies

Some while later, it was gratifying to note that it is now considered by PRD to be integral

BTW2

Some might even recall my posts about charge...saturation levels?

Again, it is gratifying to note relevant comments made more recently by PRD..
following more extensive lab tests

Nothing is guaranteed
but I like the risk reward ratio

Regards
GRH

Morning Fordy

I am on record as saying that provided things go well, I could make 1000 bags from my purchase price of 1.5p

sounds mad right now of course
and there will be those who shout at me for even mentioning it...
the infamous 'shoutists' against whom I made 100% correct calls on many shares incl Sound

but I still think folk have not grasped HOW big this thing is...the volumetrics are staggering
(no it is not homogenous!)

it is why I bang on about the SP merely being call option pricing...

It is what I believe with every bit of research at my disposal
of course, it would help materially if Ireland chips in

As I have also said...
we will probably NOT see that figure reflected in a SP as straight read across...
assets will be sold off piece by piece according to PG

However, were I to be running PRD (yes I know ...but I have run just a few things)
I would be looking at a straight sale...wham/gone
but with stub equity retained over Ireland
it could materially improve the upsides on Guercif and Ireland (I cannot judge on TT/EOR)

When could that be?
when PG/LB et al deem it right
and I do not know when that could be ...
it must depend on 100 different factors
including overall economic factors
as well as how much PRD can by then prove up...
but still leave good running room for buyers

On the other hand, they could take it to production...
the numbers are again compelling...
with the company spinning off a LOT of surplus cash for shareholders

I would go for straight sale with stub equity...

Hope it helps

Regards
GRH

Morning all

I hope you had a good time with families and friends

As I get older, I appreciate such times even more

Just looked in here...blimey!

Re random ...fact free...doom mongers?

I would merely suggest folk might wish to ask for evidence...
IE where have these characters actually identified a star share at early stage ?
and held it to real value creation...

EVIDENCE... preferably published in advance!

No...NOT skimming for a few bob ...a total mugs game...
but where they made real... life enhancing... gains

I suspect their lists do not exist

Anyone can use 4 point Verdana etc
But there is a staggering lack of intellectual rigour ...or technical knowledge...or market knowledge ...in any of their posts

This sector is not for widows and orphans...I have said so many times...

and I would NOT invest in very many companies in the sector...

I would avoid them...to put it mildly

Will PRD deliver the goods?
I firmly believe so

It is hard for the average investor to identify a 100 bagger...let alone much more than that

I identified several and bought in accordingly...
You really do 'make your money when you buy'

On one occasion...I had identified ...bought...then published ...re gkp
They were 4.5p
But I bottled a bit...sold some shares at 9 p
Then the Shaikan RNS hit...and they started their climb northwards...
I had to spend a lot more money to rebuild my position...I even published about that at the time

Pleased I did ...as they went 463p bid
I published twice when I sold

I have published re very few companies over many years...

SQZ did exactly as I said it would...
very recently on here

Sound of course...

Cove of course

My very first e&p was Nautical Petroleum...it did sort of ok!

PRD will dwarf them all in my opinion

Yes...of course...
It is possible that I am wrong this time

So...please please please...
do your own due diligence as it is your money at stake...

Regards
GRH

Nametrade

It is well known that PG is keen not to further reduce his equity %

The recent Nu Tech results are key imo

I am pleasantly unsurprised by them
They are very gratifying

I think that much will soon become clearer to the market

Absent something of importance occurring, I am now signing off for Christmas

May I wish all BB readers and contributors
a Happy Christmas
and a healthy, peaceful and prosperous New Year

Regards
GRH

BTW

I am also on twitter
@GrahamHengland

I am also on linkedin
but don't use it much
just a few oil /gas industry contacts there

Regards
GRH

Morning all

Just checking in...

Always good to have opposing views...especially technical

There have been some decent debates on this BB

However...
It would be great if some negative posters were to back up their assertions etc with hard facts

that we can analyse

It would also be of benefit if they were to direct us to their calls on other companies...

calls made PRIOR to the events

It might also be useful were they to post their real names and addresses so we can check bona fides

There is also the obvious thing...

successful people tend to exhibit some material signs of success...

It would be great to be able to debate Mr Colombo's work with other affectionados

I can wait

Regards
GRH

Antha

As I have pointed out ad nauseum ...
of course, there are no guarantees in E&P...it is the very nature of the beast

The vast majority of small E&Ps simply do not deliver ...to put it mildly

That is WHY I do not 'invest' in the vast majority of E&Ps :)

I wish you good hunting

Regards
GRH

Muckle

of course

it was less than three years

Not much different re Cove timetable of course

BTW
so someone thinks that 10 year old post (which contained SEVERAL important calls ...
one on Genel run by Tony Hayward...it was the Behr Bahr number 1 well) is down to luck...

then I suggest they would do well to carry out more research
The (now late) great Adnan Samarrai did
which was how we started our work and friendship
his credentials were sort of OK
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/godfather-iraqi-oil-gas-industry-adnan-ismail-1934-surinder

Regards
GRH

Morning all...

Re the recent posts about Guercif...

There are several analogies ((re fault structure and the movement of hydrocarbons)) with the extraordinary discovery that the Shaikan 4 well was highly productive ...it was immediately adjacent to a slip fault

Many had assumed that Shaikan would be dry

there was only one group that correctly forecast that result :)

Coincidentally...
today is the 10th anniversary of the most accurate and most prescient post on hydrocarbon discoveries of all time...almost 600 likes

I recall it as if it was yesterday...

I wrote it

It is still out there

The shares went 4.5p to £4.63 bid

I informed folk at 4.5p

And twice when I sold down

The great Shaikan is one of the greatest ...on land... hydrocarbon discoveries of the past 25 years

I own PRD
In volume

Yes I might be wrong this time
DYOR
Etc

Regards
GRH

Morning all

A most excellent post Wack :)
Thank you

Nice video too
Ah yes...I remember it well...tube out to Chiswick etc

The Ngamia 7 well was of particular note, to put it mildly!!!!!!!!!!!!

Regards
GRH

Morning...

Wack...yes it looks as if PRD could...whisper it quietly...could ...

be in the frame for two projects in Ireland...
either one of which would provide enormous value to Ireland

And of course to shareholders here

BTW...good to note that Malcy has re-tweeted my tweets of yesterday

Regards
GRH

Did nobody notice the comment relating to a possible gas cloud ?

They can make seismic trickier ...due to distortive effects

but they can do wonders for ....
eh....
sorry I forgot

what could it possibly be?
....

well GAS really

Regards
GRH

Morning...

Vegas...you are on the correct point imo

Without decent 'charge' a well cannot produce

Without decent 'porosity' a well cannot produce

Without decent 'permeability' a well cannot produce

I emphasise those things separately as they are ignored by so many in the industry itself
and the investing community

I possess data that would make your hair catch fire

It is the combination of those three things that enables energetic hydrocarbons to be able to escape their burial ground...

about 97% of migration is vertical...(see Schumacher M. for 2700 examples)

I will not go into detail about my detailed and frequent discussions with another exploration company as it would not be courteous

But I can tell you that that company was struggling to achieve 8% porosity...a figure that, with the nature of the rock...(lousy permeability) they were drilling was highly problematic

Ignoring that simple equation cost many shareholders their shirts

PRD is hugely different

I am here for Morocco

due to Guercif's combination of excellent

charge x porosity x permeability

As I have said before, those measurements constitute 95% of success in E&D

And yes, if Ireland chimes in too,
I will make my 1000 bagger from 1.5p

Regards
GRH

I...

1...know of an E&P explorer

2...that is very soon to drill a shallow ‘exploration’ hole

3...Where the hole will be drilled into a carefully chosen location within a known play fairway

4...That also possesses significant detailed/favourable information relating to the substrate

5...Where the drill is going to be at zero future cost

6 = That is then going to test flow rates

Has anyone considered that the MOU1 exploration drill is STILL in progress...

of course, there was an hiatus ...(during which period many many shares changed hands!!!)

but the drill has not yet reached its conclusion

In E&P exploration, shareholders are not much interested in the foreplay...

the HOT interest is in the RESULTS

PRD has carried out 1-5 above

And we are now at the point of achieving the objective of this well

Of course...the objective is the same today as when it spud and when the drill bit was turning

Nothing has changed...other of course than PRD has a lot more information

As do shareholders...

at least those who actually read what is placed in front of them

Regards
GRH

Posters might wish to consider AIM timetable

and then overlay that on the information we received this morning

In today's RNS, the NU TECH element is VERY powerful

Don't forget:

E = C x Po x Pe

BTW1)
We are today only 5 days away from the 10 year anniversary ...20 DEC 2011...

of what remains the most accurate and prescient BB E&D post of all time

almost 600 posters awarded their 'likes'

Regards
GRH

Typo...MOU1 of course!

Morning...

Yes that is correct...
looks like the gas saturations are even greater than measured

Previously , MOU1 was to be tested as part of a wider test programme...
But now there appears to be the possibility of mou2 going to immediate production

If...and it is an if...PRD can do that, it could change the economics ...PRD would be able to achieve decent cash flow in only a few months time...and that could place them in a very strong position re contract negotiations

I think a lot rests on the take or pay nature of gas supply contracts...unlike other companies that have saddled themselves with highly onerous contract penalties...PRD is avoiding that mistake by going much earlier than anticipated with MOU1

It changes the negotiating dynamic!!!

Make no mistake...not only does this RNS confirm 100% what I have been hanging on about (sorry!!!)

but it changes the timeline too...
They could be shortening the time to cash inflows by 6 months

Imagine how that would read in an AIM prospectus!!!

Hang on to your hats

Regards
GRH

Afternoon...

As I recall, a single poster wrote (in advance) views re SOUND ...

in respect of the drills (including Badile)

where those views have been shown to be 100% accurate in every respect

Funny old world

Regards
GRH

Morning all...

MEM

Some would say that's a rounding error

I could not possibly comment

Regards
GRH

bloody predictive text

apologies

of course...WB did not make a meal of it...

not even a buffet!