Member Info for GRH...

Afternoon all

Well, first the important news:
14 week old puppy...Harry 2...has found our stream

I kid you not when I say that all the rest pales into insignificance

Now...
there are some excellent posts on here seeking to explain to new people WHY the troll folk are here

I am not going to name posters names
but some excellent points /analogies have been made...thank you

I am just going to add a modest additional point:

New folk might wish to consider THIS quite carefully :

I posted here a while ago re the Messinian Salinity Crisis

The numbers...including the depocentre =

Not cubic metres

But cubic kilometres

It is really hard to get one's head around the scale of this

Leviathan MK2 = realistic outcome

On land...

next to GME pipe

at a time when the demand for gas
FAR outstrips Morocco's internal ability to supply

Guercif is VERY possibly a game changer for the Kingdom of Morocco and its peoples

IMO/DYOR etc

Of course...if you wish...
by all means, check my track record...
all and any part of it

Regards
GRH

Afternoon all

Sefton

if I may say so...that is a more considered post...thank you

It has long baffled me as to WHY some small E&Ps don't enter into 'wet' lease finance deals

(essentially where the whole package is lease financed on an operating lease basis
as opposed to financing the hardware only on a full amortisation finance lease)

The City's former Chairman of the Lease Brokers Association (elected /re-elected twice by participants in the UK lease industry)
might be able to help

We are talking about VERY small amounts of capital

My twitter page gives a clue

Regards
GRH
LBA

Evening all

Sefton...
you have often posted some good stuff
but IMO on this occasion
you have fallen short of your own standards

As folk here know, diplomacy was never my strong suit:

How on earth you are able to deduce what you have deduced is beyond me

There is no evidence to support your view

To me it looks like classic dealing off the back of the book (ladder)

Regards
GRH

Morning

Indeed Bob...
Watched pot ...etc

Big pot ...
To put it mildly

(Young Harry...13 weeks...
seems to quite like his new home...
Two older mates to play/chase
And a fair amount of territory in which to roam...
He has now discovered the stream...hmmm)

I hold more shares here than ever before

Regards
GRH

Afternoon

good post Sefton...

one also has to remember that MMs have to put bread on the table...
the ways to achieve that are many and various...
some are totally legitimate
whilst others are best not spoken about in polite company

but could EASILY multiply the effect of the £80,000 example you have cited

We need someone on here who knows a thing or two about that

It might be even better if that 'someone'
had been MD at the second largest inter dealer broker in the World

Funny old World:)

Regards
GRH

Morning all

Looks like Ireland has another energy problem..
Equinor are stated to be pulling out of a major offshore wind farm deal...off County Clare
Its a €2bn project apparently

Whilst not directly impacting PRD projects, it does throw even more light on the fact that the transition to renewables has many bumps in the road...

Meanwhile ...with winter approaching ...
There are real doubts as to whether Ireland can even keep the lights on

Make no mistake...
there is a major energy crisis in Europe
and Ireland is right at the far end of the supply chain

The Irish might even be looking for a solution that leaves no permanent footprint whilst being fast to get going

I am not going to belabour the gas supply issues in Morocco caused by Algeria's export decision...
woes...serious due to loss of tolling gas

But...
Some might reasonably wonder WHERE all the gas is going to come from for the major league gas to power projects

'Leviathan'

Regards
GRH

Afternoon

I posted ...MANY times...
that I wanted PG to drill the first 'EXPLORATION' (!) drill on a sole risk basis
to retain the highest possible field equity %...
IE pre farm etc deal ...
those deals are always on better terms if the farminee can see evidence of success

I was delighted when he announced exactly that...IE RETAIN FULL 75%

and even more delighted that the strategy paid off!!!!!!

Frankly, E&Ps generally farm down PRE drill
because they lack SOLID information re the initial drill prospects...
so they try to share the risk
but that also limits the upside!

I am not in this for some measly field equity %

I am here for the prize

PG has played a blinder so far

Perhaps some old boy on here has done ok too

As to Dissipline's...

'go for his fourth flatcoat in celebration'

Thanks Diss

My study is awash with celebration

so much so that Harry is actually flatcoat number 10

Regards
GRH

Afternoon

Dissipline

Best post for ages IMO

Yes...in the event of success (!)

all else is possible

There will also be several previous doubters /FUDers..
appearing on here
to say they always knew it would be great

(Success has many Fathers)

BTW...
if my typing is shaky ...
it is because I am labouring under the fast wriggling weight of a 13 week old Flatcoat

Yes...we are now back to three again

Regards
GRH

Afternoon...

Footandmouth

the clear answer is YES

I haven't posted THOSE possible numbers
just in case the men in white coats come to take me away

I have posted several times that I am here for Morocco

Readers can 'take it or leave it'...

some chose to leave it
and that is entirely up to them ...in their great wisdom

Regards
GRH

AND SO SAY ALL OF US!

GREAT post Keith...thanks

yes...
the Guercif development is several leagues (!!) above ...way better than... Anchois
in terms of costs/routes to market/timing etc

Also some will have now seen (today's RNS) why I bang on about EV/Enterprise Value

Remember that bloke who droned on about the low SP representing merely Call Option pricing

well I think he was wrong...sorry

I now think the SP is nowhere close to being priced as 'call'...
its way below that

Regards
GRH

Evening...

He joined on 12 JULY

As I have mentioned before...

The VWAP for the 3-5 business days prior to that date

could provide strong incentive to anyone granted options during that period

I rather hope he has been awarded significant numbers of VWAP priced options

Regards
GRH

Afternoon Mick

wouldn't it be interesting if the high case (per recent PRD presentation ) resource estimate
(pre a new CPR)
was being profiled at almost exactly the same production rate as Kela 2?

BTW

Looking at very much lower numbers:

Did anyone find it interesting that 'even' (!) a nett 295BCF
over 10 years ...yields undiscounted nett cash of $1.78BN

Regards
GRH

Evening Mick

Many thanks...

I had understood current production at Kela 2 to be about 180 BCF per year.

Please see...

fine-scale-geological-modeling-techniques-in-kela-2-gas-field.pdf

Please humour me and hold THAT PRODUCTION figure in your mind...just for a few days ...

To be continued??

Regards
GRH

MEM

I agree...there is something that doesn't quite jibe re the road expenditure...
it's just SO much money for (at present) seemingly little reward...there has to be more to it!

Obviously, there is a lot we don't know about Morocco's plans...
(the geo politics meaning they are partly under wraps at present)

but I reckon their plans are mighty big

BTW (as if)...

1) has anyone considered the current annual PRODUCTION profile of Kera 2 ?

2) has anyone then looked at the 9 September PRD possible PRODUCTION profiles?

They are not my figures...they come straight from PRD

I might find time to publish some more ...production led...maths in a few days

Regards
GRH

Hello again

Keith...thanks re my memory:)

Wack...
IMO you might have just contributed (YET AGAIN...I am 'in your debt'...thank you!)

one of THE defining pieces of this giant jigsaw puzzle
that we are trying to stitch together...with the information we can sometimes glean

Let's just copy/paste a relevant section:

'One of the largest infrastructure projects is the enlargement of the Guercif-Nador controlled-access highway in northeastern Morocco.
The road is 105 kilometers long
and its expansion will require an investment of MAD 5.7 billion ($633.16 million)'

WHY would Morocco spend TWO THIRDS OF A BILLION dollars on a road enlargement?

Is the key in these words (my caps):

'CONTROLLED ACCESS highway'

What if that road is to be used for trucking of hydrocarbons?

As ever...I say to anyone reading this BB...

PLEASE do your own stuff
as its YOUR money on the line
and I could be wrong this time

Regards
GRH

Morning all...

Mick

Good research...

I was discussing with a friend only yesterday that there would be practical limits re trucking...

also re scale of the local markets...
I think that MEM might be correct re sdx and the limited nature of their supply contracts abilities

As to Kela2...I was going to urge great caution as... from memory ...the geology of that field is rather different to Guercif...

but my memory is not 100%!

I do not wish to draw the conclusion that we have another Kela2 on our hands...but several vital characteristics ...geo history...thrust faulting and depositional systems...are similar

I would tone down expectations from Kela2 production rates...it is beyond extraordinary!

But...I am very hopeful that my comparison in scale with Leviathan could be correct

Is PG about to become one of the greatest GAS explorers in history?

I would not bet against it

If it works ok at shallower strata...
I reckon he could also become one of the greatest OIL explorers...
let nobody tell you that big oil is no longer needed...
It will be essential IMO for many many decades

Yes there is risk ...
and my own research could be wrong this time

So please 'do your own stuff'

Regards
GRH

BTW

The pressures do not look...at least at these shallow depths ...to be really problematic...
high pressures really only start to be a possible nuisance (!) at 10000 psi and upwards

but I do surmise that at lower depths this thing
could need 'careful handling' (!) via modern specialist kit

Kit that was not available to previous licence holders???????????

Regards
GRH

Morning

Mick...that looks about right

At THAT intersection point...the thick end of 3000 psi

The pressures are increasing with depth of course...with the overburden contributing its effect ...
the scale they are using goes to 400 kg/sq cm...thick end of 6000 psi

my conclusion ...
and I would very much welcome EXPERTS here to please comment...
is that there is a significant high pressure regime at this location...
providing good hydrocarbon migration
Of course, hydrocarbons migrate predominantly vertically (D Shumacher et al)

I suspect...but that is all it can be at this stage...
that the production profile could be changed/improved
from that of March 18 RNS and Michael Caine)
(2100psi declining to 500psi over first 5 years)
as the decline rates could be slower if decent vertical migration exists
my understanding being that higher pressure regimes in sandstone often benefit from slower decline curves

IE my personal /simplified hydrocarbon ENERGY math

E = C x Po x Pe

Hydrocarbon Energy = Charge x Porosity x Permeability

This is looking really quite interesting to me

Whether others will find it so is entirely up to them

We are all a product of own OWN research

A couple on here would do well to get up much earlier/do more reading :)

Regards
GRH

Afternoon...

I am currently going through some maths that a good friend and colleague has sent me...
it is a non trivial exercise

As part of that exercise, I am wandering quietly through the September presentation ...

Yes...once again!

Here is the FIRST thing :

if you go back to the RNS of 18 March (upon which Michael Caine was based)
you will notice an assumed initial pressure of 2100 psi...
(declining over 5 years to 500 psi)

Very reasonable assumptions...

Now look at the September presentation ...

you might notice the increased pressures that were encountered at MOU1?

(some might recall that I have been banging on for many months about the likely pressure regimes )

Here is the SECOND thing:

The pressures were NOT quoted in pounds per square inch
they appear to be quoted in kilos per sq cm

I am coming up with over 5000 psi equivalent

Some zones have high charge rates ...
WITH 16% porosity
and good permeability

I need to sit down ...
as I think I might have got this thing ‘WRONG’

Regards
GRH