Member Info for GRH...

Daibark

My expertise with muesli knows no beginning!

Regards
GRH

Morning

Slightly off beat...

There has been a widespread assumption in the oil and gas exploration sector that all of the truly giant fields have been discovered

IE what current explorers are doing is playing for minor league stuff

I believe that to be errant and arrogant nonsense...

borne of the conviction of many that they know it all and have developed their crafts to such an extent that they have achieved pretty much what was to be achieved...

IE QED

I am not an oil or gas man...
But a businessman who has been fortunate enough to have met and dealt with some incredibly talented people

As I have previously mentioned...
High on that list sat my old friend Adnan Samarrai

Adnan was the most successful oil explorer of the past 50 years or so...his obituary is readily available and worth a read...prepare to fall off your chair

But... despite his stunning success, he was totally certain that the sector had missed many truly giant fields...

He and I used to pore over technical images...
that I was able to obtain and show him...

he was very excited by the prospects...laid out in technicolor on A1 sheets on tables in our favourite Indian restaurant...the waiters totally bemused

Of course, I have long been associated with other technical people...now good friends of mine as well as associates...

Their expertise is off any reasonable scale
as time and time again they made extraordinary correct assessments...often succeeding where some of the VERY biggest names in the business failed

They even developed a booklet of FUTURE giant discoveries...locations which could yield the giant fields yet to be discovered..
I possess a lot of detail...to put it mildly

I have been truly privileged to have seen close up some great intellects at work and I am totally convinced these folk are correct...

The days of the giant discoveries are not over

Not by any means

Regards
GRH

Hi MEM

Decent health thank you...

An over abundance of muesli aside!

Forgive me...
I am far from critical of your description...
I was not implying that at all

Mine was a clumsy attempt to say it there is likely to be a LOT of oil

in some very particular locations

Regards
GRH

MEM

I trust you are well

it is not 'across the license'

It is not 'a few hundred million barrels':)

Regards
GRH

Afternoon

WHAT IF there was a company ...we can call it Museli Co PLC if you like

that had confirmed certification of

VERY SUBSTANTIAL CONTINGENT RESOURCES...

no not prospective...

CONTINGENT...

That is the World of difference!

What if those contingent resources were ‘Development Pending’

but ...when that pending tag is removed...
they move magically from RESOURCES into RESERVES

Yes...Reserves

Now...do the numbers anew...it is worth your time

The 25% risking is really a red herring IMO...as I have explained before

What would that company be worth today?

I tell you one thing...it is way above previous ATH figure

It is vastly greater

WHAT if that same company was also sitting on one of the greatest on land hydrocarbons provinces of the last 25 years?

So called ‘investors’ in E&P say they would kill for such a thing...
they get very excited

REALLY????????????

You know what?

When stuck right under their noses ...

they really fail to see the wood for the trees

I am sitting and smiling...

Regards
GRH

Milcait

No

I am hinting that these are cheap

By far the biggest value (in terms of M. Cap/upside) I have ever seen in markets

I have been in the markets for over 50 years

DYOR...
the volumes of information are very remarkable

Regards
GRH

Regards
GRH

Evening...

Fresh from my morning triumph...limited that it was!

with the muesli improvement programme...

I just want to say that this REALLY is not a re-rate

So far... all we have witnessed is a slight stiffening (that bloody muesli again)

Of the call option pricing

Bearing in mind that buyers are effectively purchasing UNDATED Calls...

((Think how amazing that optionality is...
IE holders have NO need to close before fixed dates))

I would expect them to be trading WAY above current levels...
Something north of 50 p would not go amiss...and that still for the calls ...not the underlying

The value of the underlying instrument ...the pure equity...will pop out soon enough

Just my view ...

I did used to trade options as well as full instruments

For the avoidance of doubt, I have never traded muesli

Regards
GRH

True story

I was having breakfast today with my Wife

She said

' I really enjoy this'

Flattered...

I enquired if it was because I was there with her

She said

' No...its because I have yoghurt in my muesli'

Regards
GRH

from memory (!)

the bid price high was £4.63

The m/cap was headed to £4bn

The shares would have gone much higher (I have chapter/verse)
but for the company being saddled with STUPID senior secured debt (hence I bang on about folk needing to consider ENTERPRISE VALUES)
and that coinciding with income taps being turned off...ISIL over ran the place
so bondholders diluted the hell out of PIs and took the vast majority of equity value

I was fortunate enough to be 'GRH1' there...
and posted twice when I sold down

Regards
GRH

Morning...

Interesting times I think

The company will have to relinquish 25% of the licensed area late this year...clearly it is in everyone's interest that they nominate the least pregnant elements

That will leave 75%...
75% of over 7000 sq Kms
That is well over 5000 sq kms nett

I have posted before at length about the porosity, permeability and charge EVIDENCED to date...

I have posted about the over pressure regime encountered

I have posted about the hydrocarbon ENERGY levels exhibited

I have posted about the Messinian Salinity Crisis and the scale of the depositional events...also the nature of the thrusting at this location

The reason I mention these things...that sound bland on the page ...is that they are truly exceptional in exploration

The real estate is by no means homogenous...one absolutely needs real expertise to correctly position the drill bits...and that is not easy over large areal extents

In PG we have someone who is at the top of the tree..

I have compared PG with my good friend the late and wonderful Adnan Samarrai...
we used to hug like brothers when we met so it's clear I would not draw the PG/AS comparison if I did not mean it 100%

Then we hit the jackpot with Lonny too more recently...his skills and contacts will prove pivotal

In the folk advising PG and Lonny we have people at the top of their professions...we are dealing with the finest

I mention these things as they are really rare in tiny E&P companies...

in fact I reckon that hen's teeth are more prevalent

BTW...there are folk on here who really remember GKP and it's securing and successful exploration of the immense SHAIKAN ...

It became one of the defining on land oil fields of the past 25 years...look it up...truly staggering

It is ...from memory...281 sq Kms...

Pardon!

((BTW ...wouldn't it be coincidental if the chap who published Shaikan technical details 100% correctly in advance ...way ahead of the company itself...
was a shareholder here?))

Regards
GRH

Afternoon

I just want to say that, whilst several folk are becoming excited about the recent SP movement
(and of course...enjoy the excitement)

It is very feasible that the SP will move up in daily increments that will be far larger than the current SP itself

Unless you have experienced that phenomenon, it is hard to convey the feeling
as one’s wealth is increased quite rapidly

It can even feel uncomfortable at times

The phenomenon does not occur very often
as frankly most investments do not possess the legs to truly deliver

You would be stunned by how many are sitting on poor assets
and /or are run by those to whom I would not entrust an over ripe banana for safekeeping

But when it does go well, it also leads to another problem...
the simple fact that many will choose ...very reasonably ...to take their gains and run for the hills

It is understandable ...
as stories abound of punters seeking to make up their losses from ill advised (appalling ) investments in other companies...
and they choose to do so by selling down the truly big opportunities...not seeing or understanding the difference

It is a strategy of sorts I suppose
and good luck to those who adopt it...

But t will simply mean that those punters NEVER make real money

They tend to ‘run’ their losses
and sell early on their profits...

It will take enormous conviction to hold onto profits as they sweep upwards...
its like vertigo and it is NEVER easy

It is the very reason why only conviction (REALLY heavily researched) investors make real money

Hope you don’t mind me sharing that observation...

and I fully respect that it is NONE OF MY BUSINESS what any of you do!

Regards
GRH

Daibark

my pleasure

as I have said many times ...
there is no such thing as 100% certainty in E&P...

no matter how good the people...

no matter how good the technology

It is just how it is when dealing with nature ( and often with self organising systems)

Regards
GRH

Morning ...

Bright warm day here in Sevenoaks

As long standing posters/readers may recall, my track record with identifying 100 baggers is ‘sort of ok’

In each case, I had posted my positions in advance and notified folk when I sold down....
I have long considered that proper behaviour

Of course, I was also able to post several hugely important technical images...on 20 DEC 2011
That lengthy technical post is still on advfn

By posting that I placed my dangly bits totally on the line
as it contained several very large forecasts...well in advance of the actuality of the drill bits

Of course, my dangly bits remain intact ...
as EVERY single forecast in that post (most popular ever on BBs with over 650 likes) was 100% correct

As several also know, I have stated that, if things go well with PRD ,
I hope to achieve the mythical 1000 bagger (total cash return ...as opposed to SP)
off my volume entry price of 1.5p

Many shouted when I bought at 1.5p...telling me that I was wrong then

Many more shouted when I mentioned the 1000 bagger target...
I think it caused apoplexy in several dealing rooms and resulted in a tirade of ad hominen attacks (water/duck)

And yes...of course
Things might go awry this time ...

when dealing with exploration...lithology etc ... nothing should be taken for granted
and folk really should only invest what they can afford to lose

My own risk appetite might be different to yours...
and most folk on the BB have not even met me
Although several folk have followed me from other shares
and in some cases I have met...some REALLY good people

OK

I have caveated this as well as I can

((and I am not going to go through yet again the very large volumes of information I have posted over the last years...
you can check back in my own history files if you have a couple of hours available...
some seemed to find Michael Caine informative ))

I tweeted the following yesterday...

it was re-tweeted by both Lonny and Malcolm Graham-Wood as well as other ‘names’

I post it here for those who did not see it

It is what I truly believe
or I simply would not post it

Apply every caveat
discuss with your family and friends every penny invested
don’t simply take the word of a random old boy on BB ...
DO check out EVERYTHING he says

<<<
MOU1 exploration is totally on course

It is soon to reach the finale

The market has missed the critical information

This is THE most valuable ( M. CAP / upside value) Land based exploration drill in 20 years DYOR
>>>

Regards
GRH

FootandMouth

Not a plane

Regards
GRH

Afternoon

I am going to let you locate the relevant sections etc yourselves...
for joyous reasons that will become obvious as you do so

I am going to write this in very basic language...
So I apologise to those on here who know their stuff

but ...as there are many new shareholders,
I think it important to set things out VERY plainly indeed

A recent CPR set out some valuations

The derived numbers (see below) ***
were off many scales

they clearly dwarf both the current SP and Enterprise Value (I had droned on about these values for a long time)

The valuations had been ‘RISKED’

By that, it means that the authors estimated the % chances of commercial success being achieved before deriving $ numbers

I commented in detail at the time ...(but few people picked up on the point then)
that the % ‘risking’ that had been applied appeared ‘somewhat’ low

The risking was 25%

That means that the *** figures mentioned above are only 25% of the actual numbers in a success case...

IE the actual numbers are 4X bigger (yes I know!)

The odd thing was that the 25% risking was against the chances of the company entering into
so called ‘gas to power’ deals
with Moroccan electricity generators

Why is that odd?

Well the company is on record ...and quite recently at that ...
that PRD is initially going after the markets
not in gas to power

but with local industrial ‘off takers’ (users) of gas

We know therefore that the risking of 25% is simply not applicable

NOW do the sums anew

I bid you a pleasant evening

Regards
GRH

Afternoon:

I just posted the gist of this on Twitter:

#PRD

I understand that BA resumes flights to Morocco on Thursday

At present there are no direct flights from Canada

but it might not be long before the appropriate team gets onto Guercif?

An RNS along the lines of:

‘In view of the recent re-opening of the borders of Morocco,

PRD now hopes to commence the MOU-1 well test in Q1 2022’

Might be of ' some interest'

Regards
GRH

Morning all...

one of the facets of the equities markets is that they are often incentivised to focus on the very short term ...
they need to satiate themselves daily
it is the way that market operators are bonused/rewarded
I was one...I know

When the MOU1 drill was in progress, the SP rose to about 22p...
THAT was market operators and mostly short term investors jumping on board hoping to ride the updraft

When it became clear that results for MOU1 would take longer to obtain,
the hot money moved on...
resulting in a much lower SP

((WHERE MANY OF THOSE SHARES MOVED TO IS AN INTERESTING SUBJECT )

The market operators lost interest

and thus MOU1 disappeared from the lists of 'the next big thing'...

the ‘morning prayers’ meetings held at very early hours in dealers offices
moved on to more ‘current’ ways of earning a crust or few

But MOU1 results are now just around the corner

And...as informed people on this BB know...it is supported by a plethora of hard data...
analysed by the best in the business...

PRD even published hard data in abundance so shareholders could examine it ( a rare step in my experience) ...
over which data several folk here...including me...have pored and pored trying to find the flaws

Make no mistake...
this drill/opportunity is now coming into slightly clearer view for the wider market ...but the view is still hazy for most

But here is the thing...
in MOU1 we are considering something truly huge in scale and impact

but frankly still very small in the wider scheme of Guercif...a series of licences that hold great bounty

the fan system being targeted with MOU4 really is quite something
the volumes are hard to express without men in white coats seeking to take me away

BUT...that ...vast that it is

is just the shallow opportunity (other opportunities really are available)

I continue to sit here quietly

I smile at the folly of many chasing their tails buying other E&Ps...

when they merely need to buy PRD

and WAIT

Regards
GRH

God save The Queen

Afternoon

Nicidemus1863

I would like to say...as have others before me...

THANK YOU VERY MUCH
for keeping us so well briefed on the Irish opportunities

It remains hard for me to ascertain our CoS there

but the most recent news re new gas fired power stations
will surely have moved the PRD dial ...
quite a way

Thanks again...really appreciated

Regards
GRH