Member Info for GRH...

Tesla

One hell of a good find...

Thank you

Regards
GRH

Hi Razorman...

may I just say:

those numbers need to be multiplied by FOUR in the success case...
I have covered the 'risking' point before...
it's actually an effective 75% DISCOUNT

The MMCFPD from MOU1 might surprise

The $ price of gas used by Novum is now just a tad out of date

As is Michael Caine!

Lovely day here in Sevenoaks

A Flatcoat Retriever won Crufts last night...a most beautiful looking liver coloured dog
Same bloodline (Almanza) as two of our lovely (black) boys

BTW

shareholders here are incredibly fortunate to have at the helm a couple of blokes who know their stuff backwards

AND may I say who do not rip off shareholders with extortionate pay packages

These come along once every ten years... in my view

Regards
GRH

Thanks Nametrade...

I look forward to reading it later

Regards
GRH

I do of course apologise to anyone who is shocked by what I have written

For the sake of humanity, I hope to God I am wrong

But there is no point on this or any other BB
simply pretending that things remain unchanged

Regards
GRH

The long term effects of the latter will be profound...
Much of that country’s land will be laid waste...

and the ‘blips’ in prices will become permanent

for a generation or more

In 2002 my wonderful Wife gave me another book *** by the incredible Antony Beevor ...
(*** he had also authored the stunning STALINGRAD...a book which made me read it every waking moment)

The book?

BERLIN

IMO...Possibly THE greatest book about the maths and follies of war ever written...simply stunning

The reason for my Saturday ramble?

Simples:

What ‘Michael Caine’ was talking about has changed
We all know that

BUT imo...it has changed forever

and on a scale we cannot yet truly appreciate

The changes are totally structural
and will only accelerate from the new base levels

PRD is sitting on extraordinary assets in extraordinary locations

PG and others are soon to reap the rewards

I am so sorry of course that that is at the expanse of so many innocents

Regards
GRH

Afternoon

I posted early this month about the levels of Ukrainian natural resources (enormous ...and literally vital on a global scale)

I even published a table of such resources ...it was on or about 2 March I think...only 10 days ago

Several people shouted me down

Among them was the Resident Village Idiot (RVI)

Folk suggesting they need no lessons on schoolboy geography etc
And thus ENTIRELY missing the point of my post

By means of that post. I had hoped to start a debate on here
about the scale of the resources scarcities /price rises that were yet to come

But there were no takers...it all fell flat

I point out that it has only been 10 days since that post

but in that short period the worlds of commodity trading have gone bananas...
some of the staggering price rises already reflecting global scarcity

BUT...
It is about to get very many times worse IMO

One only has to consider that MOST Ukrainian outputs will be off the global market for the foreseeable future
The effects will led to panic in many nations

FERTILISERS will become like gold dust

Energy resources close to population centres will be courted as ardently as was say Sophia Loren in her prime

WHY do I suggest that resource shortages will get a whole lot worse and prices a whole lot higher?

It’s all to do with Kiev

Bear with me

IN THE ABSENCE OF A FACE SAVING PEACE DEAL/SURRENDER BY UKRAINE (please God it happens)

Putin faces a major issue:

He HAS to take Kiev at any cost or in Russia he will be seen to have failed (despite sanctions, the narrative within Russia is VERY different to what we in the West see)

Kiev used to have about 2.8m people
But about 35% are thought to have fled
The remaining folk are VERY committed to fight on...and now quite well armed

Putin is thought to have about 140,000 residual troops in theatre ...
They are mostly young conscripts...
traumatised by massive losses (unverified but estimated at about 15000 men now)

So Putin thinks 140,000 conscripts can take and HOLD a huge city of say nett 1.8 million people?

He cannot be SO dim that he forgets the plight of the Red Army at Berlin

In 1945 Berlin had about the same number of people as Kiev

But the Red Army was well above 2.3m men...many hardened by conflict...
some put that total army at above 2.5 m men

It was a blood bath of course

You see...the battle ratios are very different

Yes, modern armaments change the maths slightly
But nowhere near enough

My conclusion...and I hope to God I am wrong

Putin is planning to use ‘small’ chemical and nuclear weapons

The long term effects of the latter will be profound...
Much of that country’s land will be laid waste...

and the ‘blips’ in prices will become permanent

for a generation or more

In 2002 my wonderful Wife gave me another book *** by the incredible Antony Beevor ...
(*** he had also authored the stunning STALINGRAD...a book which made me

Afternoon

An online friend emailed me a couple of hours ago

He is a charming man of impeccable education

He is in the top echelon of his profession

His name would be well recognised in his field and wider

He has a considerable sum invested in PRD

The reason he emailed me?

Simple...

He has only just appreciated the scale of the prize we are dealing with in Morocco

So ... think about it...

If someone with such outstanding qualities and mental acuity did not really understand the scale...

Do you?

There are no guarantees of course
and E&P is a tough sector

Having said that...

I consider this a better opportunity than I have seen in over 50 years general investing
and some 13 years in the sector

BUT...
Please REALLY do your own stuff...

as you can see from this note and others...
it could be a terrific use of your time
and of course it's your hard-earned money!

Regards
GRH

ho55

of course it centres on a 'market' perception of risk/uncertainty

Market assumes an execution and technical risk

Market assumes a funding risk

In both cases,
my own views are borne of a lot of research (not necessarily available to the market)

The market just consists of a load of folk all trying to make their daily bread
I have employed VERY many such people

I can tell you now...they are not always 'of the finest'
and they can be out-thought by decent application of grey matter

PRD also has a LOT of plates spinning...very big plates at that...
quite surreal for a small outfit
and market cannot understand that...
its simply too hard for them to understand...

you have to bear in mind that they often have VERY limited time/focus available...
sometimes just a minute or so at morning prayers sessions to decide positioning...
its brutal and often wrong

when I floated my own Company , The Sunday Times quoted me re plates spinning
I did ok then

Sorry...really cannot spell out better than that

Regards
GRH

of course its a different math as in the case of Morocco it is PRD that will be the source supplier

in Ireland PRD needs a big supplier

Hang on

They have signed a Confidentiality Agreement with a global supplier

I entirely forgot those lines from 2020

I must go now
as my hair is smouldering

Regards
GRH

Sorry

not very clear...

what I am trying to say
is if 25MMCFGPD is at the top end of the maths in the Novum note re Morocco

...bloody hell

300MMCFGPD in Ireland is totally of another scale

I almost let my cat out of the bag re what I think Morocco will do (!)

Regards
GRH

Careful Tesla (! )

As we all know...the SLR CPR was the basis for the excellent Novum research note

at the VERY TOP END of the numbers in that Novum note
they were considering project maths around 25 MMCFGPD

I need to check my schoolboy maths
BUT... if I am not mistaken (!)

isn't 'up to 300 MMCFGPD a 'bit' above 25MMCFGPD???

When I said ...in my post on Monday ...
that other operators are likely to face problems
as PRD could hold the MAJOR supply card...
I meant every word

BTW...I forget who is making the sedan chair
but whilst you are about it...why not make two...

one each for PG and LB?...

These guys really are right up there in my book...
and my book has VERY high standards

Regards
GRH

Morning

firstly a big welcome to HIGHWAYS..
.
I totally reiterate what fellow posters have said...

We all try to contribute here (our local Village idiot notwithstanding)

Has everyone considered the Novum note?

ALL of it?

It’s there in the plainest of plain sight

a bloody great photo of MOU1

Now...what is that sticking out of the top ?

That confirms the well was indeed 'completed'...

Of course, we had already been advised of that ...but ‘a picture speaks 1000 words’ etc

Now, in E&P terms that is a most important step...and very expensive

It is not undertaken ...

unless the well is expected to flow

Of the total cost on MOU1, about 35 % was cost of completion

Completion costs were not far short of $1m!

NOW...

Does anyone recall my mantra?

posted 1000s of times over many years

E = POR x PER x CH

E...hydrocarbon energy ...(energetic hydrocarbons ...at a nano particle level... work their way upwards in a predominantly VERTICAL manner...often with astonishing vigour and speed)

POR...Porosity

PER...Permeability

CH...Charge

WHY DO I KEEP BANGING ON ABOUT THAT??????????

Well, I refer you to a post by Methodology on Reddit a while ago...it pulls it together

Why not really study it...he has done the hard work

Have a coffee

Sit down in a quiet room

Have a phone close at hand

Make sure the chair has arms on it

or you will fall off

And ...let’s face it... you don’t want to be found on the floor when the fire services arrive

Yes...your hair will be on fire!

This was Methodology:

https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/p27mrs/notes_on_mou1_commercial_flow_potential_tgb2_sands/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Regards
GRH

Flyby

I am sorry you are in that frame of mind

I did look back through your posts and I thought I read in one of them that you had sold out of PRD a while ago?

You appear to have other E&Ps that you follow...
if you are invested in those...then obviously you might therefore have the option of selling some of those?

I really do only buy an E&P once in a blue moon
but its your choice of course

I wish you all the best

Regards
GRH

Morning...almost spring like here

Several important things...some extremely so!

I do not understand the maths behind green hydrogen but it is as clear as day that PRD intends to use surplus gas ...
as another local money spinner...

This, it is likely to increase the attractiveness...value... to potential partners

Does it indicate that PRD may produce a LOT of gas?

Blimey...you may say that, I could not possibly comment!!

As to local sales of gas...to off takers...
It is likely imo that industry in Morocco will not need any other supplier...

Roll that around in your head!

You might want to consider how
'take or pay...provide or pay' contracts work...

They are NOT a simple one way street!!

Companies with small amounts of gas will struggle

If I was running another e&p company, I would be VERY cautious about entering onto such contracts for fear of suffering damaging penalties

I do know a fair bit about assets beyond Guercif

What PRD has coming down the street is very great in scale

and of course Mr Baumgardner knows everyone...

I mean everyone... on first name terms...

he probably also know their wives names...a true mark of close relationships...

I regard that as really important...
I do not do business just to make money...
but to enjoy my life...I am not the only one

On that point, there is no doubt that Lonny is a mighty tough cookie ...with correctly high standards

Standards that are absolute and fixed...

One should view recent personnel changes in that light...not in the light of drivel posted by our local village idiot

As to timing of deals...folk are working their nuts off...and the landscape has hugely changed of course

In practical terms, that means that deals which might have been OK a few weeks ago are no longer hitting the mark

But other players will have entered the fray...to our benefit

Deals have lives of their own...they are complex dynamic things

I am over the Moon that we have Lonny with us...
Peterhouse too...with all their experience and connections

PRD is my only E&D holding for very good reasons

DYOR
Etc etc

Regards
GRH

Hi Keith

Good stuff...many thanks

yes...'gushed' is good...generally!

My name from my grandchildren is Baba

I am sure that many here are familiar with the drilling of Baba Gurgur...1927 I think

The inimitable and much missed Adnan Samarrai schooled me on it ...many times

Expect surprises at Guercif

Regards
GRH

BTW...there will be folk who jump on the maths...re project values and GIP values

They need to consider one massive thing...PRD sits on four licences...totally over 7200 sq kms

The licence that contains the wonderful Shaikan field ...
one of THE biggest on-land discoveries in 20+ years
is...281 sq kms

Of course the geological /depositional characteristics are different...
and the PRD licences are not homogenous...

but nor was Shaikan!

I am not making this stuff up

MANAGED CORRECTLY AND AT GREAT PACE (which our guys are doing),
Morocco could very quickly benefit from the PRIZE beneath ...
at an historically vital moment

I owned 1% of GKP
and often had to pinch myself

I own a very decent chunk of PRD...
my arms are black and blue:)

No guarantees /DYOR...etc etc

Regards
GRH

Morning again...

A good friend (who I met many years ago ...he had contacted me as a result of my investing)
sent me this email

I repost it in its entirety...it is his math and focus

((

Hello Graham,

Had a second look at the note.

Page 7 seemed helpful.

They calculate that a net attributable 74 BCF would be worth $148m to PRD.

So…..

1 TCF would be $2000m or £1504m (at $:£ 1.33)

Assuming 300m shares in issue that means that a recovered TCF attributable to PRD is worth £5 per share.

The question is how many TCFs originally in place do there have to be before PRD gets a TCF for itself?

Lets accept the 66% recovery and we know PRD has (at present) 75%. So reversing those the answer is that for every 2 TCFs in the ground, PRD nets 1 TCF.

(2 times 0.75 times 0.66 = 1 or very nearly)

So each TCF originally in place is worth £2.50 per share on these figures.

How many TCFs are there?

Of course I have ignored the 25% chance of commerciality.

If the gas flows at commercial rates, that is just plain silly
and must be included so as not to scare the horses
but anyone can multiply by 4.

The larger 25 mmcfpd project on page 9 comes out at 49.7p per share FOR A SINGLE PROJECT at a very very conservative average gas price. That is not shabby!))

Now...it will not be lost on anyone here (I hope) that

1...one needs to multiply the figures by 4 ...to allow for the inbuilt 75% DISCOUNT
2...the recovery % is very low indeed
3...the price of gas is now way way higher that assumed
4...perhaps most important of all...PRD will be able to offer SECURITY of supply (another friend kindly sent me this week a Paper re supply side security)
5...the companies now interested in PRD will now be many greater than before Mr Putin started his war

Right...done the revised math?

its pretty interesting

but that is for 1 TCF gas to PRD

I believe that PRD sits on considerably more ...

(No...I am not going to say here quite how much more!)

Michael Caine on steroids

Regards
GRH

Morning...

Keith...

The folk at Peterhouse are good...I suspect they are already contributing!

The owners have serious connections

((From my deal in Saudi Arabia with King Abdullah... I learnt to ignore ...look through... so called loss makers...the very first meeting for that deal was a rubbish trip into Riyadh followed by a whole afternoon meeting above a tiny shop down a back street with a chap and his Lebanese apparent 'minder'..he actually ran a loss making outfit...room had awful air con...50C outside...but the connections were beyond good...I have a Qum rug gift from my original chap...one of the boys is snoozing on it as I type...the $5BN deal was live on Saudi news))

The reason I give that detail is to illustrate that the ME works 'very differently'

I suspect that PRD is evaluating multiple deals for Morocco

...Mr Putin has ensured the world has changed...companies that were once less interested are now scrambling for position...

The scale of the asset is of potentially global importance...there are very few such assets around...

right next to the GME too

BTW...the 75% discount in the CPR...thence in the analyst note....(good work!)..

is there for a reason...

Long waffle but I have to pass the time in the Eastbourne nursing home...

Regards
GRH

Taff

I remember hearing/seeing the news...I was truly appalled ...

for you and AGD62 it must be very emotional

Keep that pecker up

Regards
G

Black dog

Hope you are AOK!

Sorry to shout...but NO!!

Those are the 25% figures...

IE after applying crazy discounts

Also with old gas prices...

This is big...but overarching even that is the issue of security of supply!!!

I know of companies which have considered closure due to supply issues

'Right place...Right time'....

Does not even get close X 100

Several have suggested I am wrong...
Several have shouted at me

They have no Idea how wrong they are...

Regards
GRH