GUERCIF ...PART 117 Jan 2022 11:32
Afternoon...
I said earlier today that I would repost ‘Michael Caine’
I do so as LSE has seemingly stopped readers from ‘interrogating’ the posting histories of people
That is a huge pity and very important
As that history contains a large bodies of work provided by several posters...
work that has cost effort, time and, in some cases, money
but which has been given here completely without charge
The ‘history interrogation’ facility of LSE also enabled posters to spot linguistic ‘telltales’ ...
from which it was easy enough to discern who is a straight de-ramper ...
albeit borne anew under yet another nom de plume...
trying to manipulate the SP for their own gains
or the gains of others
(make no mistake, what PRD has here is quite extraordinary)
The Michael Caine post was based 100% on the RNS issued on 18 March 2021
I am very aware that PRD has since issued updated RNSs and increased shares in issue
but the basics have hardly changed (enhanced IMO)
And please forgive me but I am unaware of any other post that seeks to bring the startling maths together in one (sort of) easy to read post
By all means read it if you want to
Don’t read it if you don’t want to spend the time
So...FWIW...here it is :
(((
Afternoon all...
I said the other day that I would have a go at making the recent RNS a bit more ‘accessible’
Well....this is it...FWIW:
That RNS (18th March) is the FIRST time we have seen PRD give us more detailed information about what Guercif could really be worth to shareholders.
The RNS fills in many of the missing piece of the jigsaw for PRD/Morocco.
We knew how much gas the company is targeting
and now we know the value to PRD of much smaller example volumes of gas.
NB: It is really important to stress that these are EXAMPLE volumes
If we put the two together, we get a giant sized clue ...
And we can estimate the value of the type of large discoveries that PRD are actually expecting (remember Paul’s grin!).
The following is my own back of an envelope ‘try’ (timing?)
at valuing Guercif using the PRD supplied data...
I hope it starts a conversation here ...
as I am sure that others will be able to improve on this.
Here we go...
So, we start with the value to PRD of a smallish EXAMPLE gas volume
That would result in the extraction of 3.65 BCF per year over 10 years...
again, that is an illustrative period
This value (nett of operating and capital costs ...Opex and Capex)
is given as $19.7m per year
and that is AFTER deducting ONHYM’s 25% share.
That is £14.17m per year (at FX: $1.39/£1).
You can express that as a figure of £3.88m for every ONE BCF
(I am not making this stuff up)
That equates to 1.51 pence PER SHARE ...PER ONE BCF (with 257m shares in issue).
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