Member Info for Kalan

The concensus seems ti be that the virus abates and opec regain control and we all get back to normal. Job done. What I dont get is where the think the virus has gone. Also jow low does production need to go to keep oil prices high. 10 20 30 40 per cent of world production?
The concensus is that Governments can sirt this and the big risk today is that they have done more than is necessary so the gold hedge against inflation holds sway. I would love to believe it but I just dont buy it.

I concur with all you said TC - especially the bit about us being fodder. Sold GLR at 0.46p and haven't really looked back with Zinc falling. Could be something to be announced or just a few punters having a gamble. Can't see the project actually getting off the ground in the short term if we are right about what the markets are going to do next.
If FTSE goes up next week I will cut my losses and try again later for the big fall.

Yes - thanks Speedie - there is a warning from my broker when you buy this kind of product so I am aware but please don't hesitate to tell this Grandad how to suck eggs - any advice or help is greatly received.
As for deaths - the UK had 26,000 deaths due to flu last year. The predictions to get to herd immunisation were from 250,000 to 500,000 deaths in a year. We have gone down the route of letting it get hold a bit for some immunity and then locking down to keep the numbers down. Mr witty said that limiting deaths to 20,000 from Covid-19 would be remarkable but it seems it may be possible in the short run. The question is how can we sustain the economy through the next waves of the virus until a vaccine is available. The Government are having to react to newly gained knowledge but from what I have seen so far I trust them to do their best taking into account all factors, some of which conflict.
In Sweden they have gone for letting the virus spread and just isolating those in most danger to keep deaths down. The USA was giving it a bit of a blasé 'it's not all that bad' attitude, helped by Donald whose main priority is re-election and therefore the economy. They have reacted belatedly to minimising deaths as he has come to realise it may affect the election outcome if their death rate is say 10x that of other countries such as Germany.
We won't know for a few years who got this right but I think we need some normality in the Summer before we tackle another lockdown or Swedish type lockdown for the vulnerable next Winter.

Yes the dangers are all around - so being careful with the amount and the scale factor - the problem with cutting production is that Trump is trying to orchestrate a cut to save the US oil producers. The others can just kill it off by not agreeing to cuts. he would have to sweeten the deal for Saudi, Abu Dahbi, Russia et al. Also the Chinese move to buy cheap oil and store it is a double edged sword in that it creates demand but lowers future demand and prolongs the oil price drop. The short term twist and turns will bring up surprises but surely the direction of travel is down overall.

Spot on moneyhawk. Need zinc and copper prices to bottom before we can begin to assess the viability of Sable with 3rd party or Kabwe waste - a lot of clarification needed and time needs to pass before I get back into JLP - looks quite secure for holders though.
Joined TC in shorting the FTSE with £5,000 through SUK2 (avoiding spread betting as I haven't done it before and the mantra in a crisis is 'stick with what you know'). SUK2 aims to short the FTSE so any fall is doubled in your share value and vice versa. There is also a LUK2 which is for the FTSE bulls. Other shares and funds are available which can do 3x the movement long or short. Restricting the amount of money and the multiple to x2. Being very cautious - bought at 1.30pm and 5 seconds. Straight after the USA jobs report which they had at an estimate of -1,000 jobs but it came in at -7,000 jobs. The reality looks worse for the USA than they are factoring in to me. It looks like I have jumped the gun as the indicators haven't turned yet but they look like they are poised. The FTSE is back in 'correction' territory rather than bear market which looks ridiculous given the circumstances. Still predicting 3700 to 4300 on FTSE and 1600 on S and P 500. A bit of a contrarian on this one given recent market strength but history does chime if not repeat and history says there's a long way to go in this bear market.
Up the JLP. GLA.

Good luck with the business TC - keeping a close eye on my brother in law who is a sole trader - he doesn't seem to make good business decisions so trying to act as a sounding board for him. (He owes me money). My son is at home on full pay and doing a fifth of the work he did previously and my daughter is at home on full pay most of the time. My step daughter has no overheads and has been put on leave / working from home on 70% wages, step son at home on 80% - all four have had a go at whingeing to some extent - but like you say - it looks like a paid holiday to me. Back in the 80's about 50% of the people on my street with bills and mortgages to pay were unemployed, with many on strike for a whole year - so things are much easier now. We should all think about the small businesses who do not have the benefit of the government riding to the rescue (although I think what the government has done is a remarkable response) - good luck with it - survive and prosper - we need you to pay taxes for the next x amount of years to pay for it all.

Mynytho and ATC40 - there have long been theories about market makers putting through small buys and sells to signal direction or whatever. This may have been true at one time but I haven't seen any real evidence that it still goes on - I believe, and I may be wrong, that the small buys and sells are due to the computers doing what they have been told to do by the programmer. They tend to proliferate around lunchtime and could happen all day long now with many working from home and putting automatic trading on for longer. They are best ignored IMO - there doesn't seem to be anything to glean from them although some will use their existence to back up their argument for an imminent rns or rise or fall or whatever.

Auf wiedersehen style Cookie - all of us in wooden huts - playing darts and snooker at night and shovelling muck into the hopper by day - why aye pet - we'all get to 200T if it kills we _ i'm up for it.

Top 'very interesting' Catz - keep us informed - looks like a 1 or 2 % drop may be on the cards at the off tomorrow but overall looking steady to me - do you steady yourself and then wobble a bit before you fall - I do when I have had a few - still think the markets are drunk on optimism.
So far my family is ok - no-one has the virus confirmed but my mum (77) has a cough and both her and my dad (79) are going to be tested they think tomorrow. On the finance front - my daughter is mostly at home on full pay and so is her husband. My son and his partner are both working as normal. My step daughter is working from home on 70% wages and my step son is working from home on 805 of basic salary. My brother is at home on no pay and trying to get benefits. If this is repeated across the country for 2 to 3 months then the economic downside has to have lasting effects - the consumer is not going to be spending a lot when we come out of this - never mind if we get a second and third wave. Anyway - the herd says up - so up it is - until it isn't. Waiting.

Herd not heard - dumbo, time for bed.

It's interesting stuff TC - my problem with this short term stuff is that if I back a winner then I tend to sell out too early and bank the profits. My strength is that I have learnt to take the hit when I get it wrong. I don't short so my opportunities in a falling market are few and far between.
Note your comments on the heard being a bit slow on the uptake - saw a commentator discussing the markets on Bloomberg and he was talking about much further to go down and the time frame being longer than most think - but he also said that in bear markets you often get 20% jumps in the indices - so worth trying to predict them - going to have a study of past bear markets to see if there is a discernible pattern in the heard behaviour. It should be around for about 3 years so better know the beast. To think that a 10 year bull market will be followed by a one month bear market looks rather optimistic - but still some shares doubled in last weeks rally so go with the heard when they are buying.

Troll to what effect - to get the sp down and buy in - the sp is doing fine on it's own without troll input - troll to buy in - not a chance. lol.

The local investors who stumped up cash at .5p and .36p after being charmed by MM, may just string him up.

Current market cap 7.7 million - soon to be 4 million.
They borrow 4 million and take the shares through conversion which gives Blackrock effective control of the company. Take it off AIM - offering .05p per share to all holders and tuck the operation away in Blackrock's vaults until the next hike in Tungsten prices.
in the meantime Mr Masterman takes his salary and pays the security guards peanuts and tries to get some money from the Government so he can keep the charade up for even longer.
The production figures will be worth a look - but if they are as appalling as indicated - then the only reason to continue is to keep MM's salary rolling in.
GLA - will have a look at the figures when they come out but there are so many cheap companies about, that are about to get a whole lot cheaper - that actually make a profit in 'normal' times that it would seem highly unlikely that anyone would put new money in here.
Best wishes to the nuns - especially the Hartlepool ones.

So those oil hale companies go bust and new leaner and fitter ones take their place with ex managers as CEO's. The banks have to take a hit and one or two of them go under and are replaced by the fitter banks who did due diligence.
Trump doesn't want this as jobs and businesses are lost and he needs the economy to be doing well for his re-election - this is all he cares about and has influenced every tweet, action and lie he has put out there since the Covid-19 outbreak began. he has appealed to Saudi Arabia to 'do the right thing' - the right thing for who exactly? He now wants to work with Russia to get the oil price up. US oil shale is the main reason for an over supply of oil - I think Russia and Saudi Arabia would do well to rub the US industry into the dust - 6 months of pain for 3 to 5 years of control.

The one good thing at the moment for businesses is that they will be able to have really low energy bills once this is over. In order to save the US oil industry Trump would inflate the oil price in the USA only and handicap their manufacturing - another case of nothing being so bad that a politician can't make it worse. The US oil shale business will do what it did last time - stop drilling and wait.

Trust no-one but yourself TC - I think you have it right - too many people still think the virus numbers will fall and then we go back to work with little long term damage done and then it's boom time again. I would give that scenario about a 5% chance. The stockmarkets are usually out of tune with the economy - last week was another example - people think that Governments can print money and make it alright and so they buy and others join in and so on. Until the effect runs out and reality starts to dawn and then they are rushing for the door again. Even Trump realises it ain't going to be over by Easter so maybe just maybe the penny is beginning to drop across the pond.

It often dips into the US opening on nervousness. Good luck.

Hi TC - excellent work and good to see some profits banked. Been too busy to do any trading myself. Looking after family and doing some electrical work for my step daughter. had a break from the news as well so a bit out of touch. I have had a brief look at the charts and the FTSE, JLP, etc etc are all almost identical in shape. The MacD stands out as you say as the one bullish looking signal and also a couple of weak days could destroy this as you also say. Unless we get some sort of breakthrough (e.g. the home testing kits reveal that 50% of us have already had the virus) then I still anticipate another big leg down or a long winding up and down fall to the bottom over many months. It would not surprise me to see markets lower by up to 30% from where we are now. Below 4,000 on FTSE and about 1600 on S and P 500. I know it looks a long shot but it is in line with historical falls. Didn't make any money out of the rally - just glad not to lose any. Trading looks tricky for the coming week IMO.

Smashing update for all holders - excellent .
Cash position was of prime importance - they had 10 million - but have 6 million to pay out in short term so that leaves 4 million and they should have added a million plus in the first couple of months - maybe 2 million. So about 6 million in cash approx which should see Kabwe through to production I would hope. They should weather the shut down even if it is extended by an extra 3 weeks.
PGM prices are robust in the short term and should add some more cash to the balance sheet before a re-balancing of supply and demand takes place - more likely to buy here now the situation is clearer - just the Kabwe rights to be clarified but pgms alone would be a decent investment.
Good to see some making profits and others taking some off the table at a significantly lower loss than they had on paper.