Member Info for Kalan

Hi TC - excellent work and good to see some profits banked. Been too busy to do any trading myself. Looking after family and doing some electrical work for my step daughter. had a break from the news as well so a bit out of touch. I have had a brief look at the charts and the FTSE, JLP, etc etc are all almost identical in shape. The MacD stands out as you say as the one bullish looking signal and also a couple of weak days could destroy this as you also say. Unless we get some sort of breakthrough (e.g. the home testing kits reveal that 50% of us have already had the virus) then I still anticipate another big leg down or a long winding up and down fall to the bottom over many months. It would not surprise me to see markets lower by up to 30% from where we are now. Below 4,000 on FTSE and about 1600 on S and P 500. I know it looks a long shot but it is in line with historical falls. Didn't make any money out of the rally - just glad not to lose any. Trading looks tricky for the coming week IMO.

Smashing update for all holders - excellent .
Cash position was of prime importance - they had 10 million - but have 6 million to pay out in short term so that leaves 4 million and they should have added a million plus in the first couple of months - maybe 2 million. So about 6 million in cash approx which should see Kabwe through to production I would hope. They should weather the shut down even if it is extended by an extra 3 weeks.
PGM prices are robust in the short term and should add some more cash to the balance sheet before a re-balancing of supply and demand takes place - more likely to buy here now the situation is clearer - just the Kabwe rights to be clarified but pgms alone would be a decent investment.
Good to see some making profits and others taking some off the table at a significantly lower loss than they had on paper.

SLP are clear "The implication of this announcement is that all mining operations in SA will be impacted during the lockdown. As a consequence, the Sylvania Dump Operations ("SDO") are also required to be placed on care and maintenance, resulting in no PGM ounce production during the lockdown period. "
Will report of interims be delayed 2 weeks due to the crisis?
Nice bounce - USA kitchen sink helping plus pgm prices don't forget to take profits and /or sell into strength on all shares GLA.

Thanks TC - going to had John Wood to my list as WEIR were looking to shed some oil business when this hit so they may be stuck with some part of the business that they were having problems with - so WG may be the better bet.
Had a walk today with my step daughter and her boyfriend - lovely day. Counting my blessings.
JLP could show further short term weakness but I am encouraged by the rns - using the shut down time to think it through.
Someone on Bloomberg said today that in this market you need to be in for a few minutes or a few years and nothing in between. I echo that - trade or build a portfolio for the next 5 to 10 years. I need liquidity next May so my time frame is too short to be buying and holding at this stage. Good luck.

On a financial note Minor Miner - GLR has fallen 50% since the stockmarket fall out - do you think the Star Zinc development is off the table for the time being or do you think it is viable at current zinc prices or maybe 20% lower than where zinc prices are now.

Got WEIR on watch volcano - it multibagged after the last crisis. Exposed to oil and gas - particularly USA and mining. It could repeat - however see the other posts as they were planning to get out of oil and gas - so this time it may be different - keeping my powder dry for quite a bit longer yet - can't see the rally today lasting - the deflation word is being used more and more often. Waiting for some clarity.

Hi TC - got WEIR on watch - a similar company to John Wood - supplies mining companies and oil companies - especially in USA. So business is decimated at the moment - WEIR was a fabulous investment after the last crash and multibagged - so I am with you on the type of company - WG looks strong and could well be a big rebounder. It looks better at 143 p rather than 150p - can't say I would revcomend to buy it now as all signals seem mixed to me at the moment. The one year charts of some companies such as WG and JLP are saying they are on the edge of a mega break out upwards - no way near confirmed yet but shaping up. meanwhile the concensus is shifting from inflation to deflation and yet pgm's and stocks have risen on the inflationary action of the world's governments - so keeping my powder dry - but if I were to be anxious to get in there then WG would be on my radar or WEIR. let's see what tomorrow brings - maybe there will be a sobering up of speculators and a change in the shape of the charts.
p.s. JLP rns looks solid and did not deserve the reaction it got in the sp IMO. Wish I knew the actual cash position and debt position.

Nice little bounce this morning that the charts indicated - the charts now look mixed - we could be set for a second wind, which could be worth selling into (IMO) or it may just settle back down again - one of those occasions where looking back it will be obvious but we don't have the use of hindsight.
Looking at JLP as a company - the lockdown for 3 weeks would normally decimate the sp but as some have already pointed out it helps offset the massive demand destruction if S Africa doesn't produce pgm's. We know JLP produces cash flow at these pgm levels - very healthy cash flow. We know they have big outgoings in terms of payments for chrome and pgm assets plus the costs of getting sable ready. We also know that Sable will find it tough to be profitable from 3rd party materials and now it could be impossible with 25% fall in copper and 20% fall in zinc prices.
What we don't know is the supply demand balance for pgm's although the market thinks deficit, today at least.
We also don't know what the legal position is at Kabwe (see Minor Miner's cryptic I am smarter than you posts) and JLP are tight lipped on it.
My thinking is that at current pgm prices - Kabwe can be mothballed for another 3 years whilst any legal stuff is sorted and so can Sable if 3rd party material is not enough to make it profitable. JLP is worth more than 2p on PGM's alone at these pgm prices - the key thing here and at SLP for that matter, is what will be the demand for pgm's once the shut down smelter is up and running and S Africa production comes back on line and what happens to the dollar as safe haven rather than pgm's and how long does that last - fortune does not always favour the brave and I for one am prepared to be a coward and miss out rather than risk losing money at this stage - it's rarely easy to make money - a time will come when everyone will make money in the markets and new geniuses will be born - but is that time now - history says no but the pgm space could be the exception - I am not smart enough to work that out though.
(p.s. good health to you and yours Minor Miner - keep safe).

We are all idiots Jonah - it goes with the territory of investing on AIM.
My school did Wednesday afternoon PE and often took groups out to do rock climbing on Stanage Edge - my daughter and son also went with their schools for PE lessons. My granddaughter loves climbing at Meadowhall but not been to Stanage yet - but now you have put it in my mind I think I may take them to the caves next week.

Most people are good - it is part of human nature - it helps us to survive to work together.
A sobering piece of information - up to 2 days ago over 125,000 people had died in the Uk and 144 of these were from the virus - just over 0.1% of all deaths - we know this is going to get worse but so far not as awful as we fear.
In a typical year over 400,000 over 70 year olds die - we are trying to keep the covid deaths to less than 20,000 - that would be truly remarkable and a testament to the Governments efforts.
Only 1% of those who have dies so far did not have a pre diagnosed condition. Also only 1% of people who have died are under 70.

Agree 100% goldsmith - I would give them 9out of 10. Keep up the good work and thank you.

Good luck with your trade TC - had a little look myself and yes a small upturn could happen in the morning and at some point I think we will get a false rally and a mood of optimism to sell into for holders and to trade for those with cash.
You could self isolate in Robin Hood's caves Jonah - a bit risky as the Fox House Inn won't be open for you to warm your ****les if it turns a bit nippy.

P.s. anyone think the interims (expected this week or next) will be delayed - I noticed that GKP have delayed there's for a couple of weeks as instructed by the regulators.

Looking at 1600 for S and P now as a potential bottom indicator Bluebelly - I think the US market finally got it that we are heading for a systemic (financial) shock and not a short term V shaped shock. 3 years minimum bear market.
Lovely to see my daughter at home with the grandkids - sending me pictures - they did a 9am to 10 am physical workout, then 10am to 11am writing and spelling. next is 1 hour electronics time. Afternoon they will be doing creativity for an hour then a one hour walk and finished off with reading. Missing em already but the knees are getting a rest. going to write them letters and get them to reply - might be a challenge for Theo as he's only 4 but Lydia will love it.

10% dilution for 2 years guarantee that the company continues to exist and move forward.
Upside is £1 plus. Downside is that the subscriberseventually end up with the whole company if share price does not recover?

In pure financial terms (not the most pressing issue) it would be better if all production were to shut down and resume when this is all over then SLP would be back where it started with high pgm prices and cash in the bank. I don't think it would cost much to mothball their operations whereas the mines need to tick over if they can.

Great sense of realism on this bb - really good bounce on AIM - but we know the worst of the virus is to come and what that will do to sentiment - still nice to have a blue day for the traders and bottom hunters - uplifting for the spirits.
59 and been looking after a 4 year old and a 7 year old. K'nackered by tea time. 71 with a 10 year old - that will keep you young - watch those knees though.
Making a note of your target prices TC - all info gratefully received. GLA and don't forget to take those profits.

Well done on the National express Bluebelly. Being nimble and not holding for long would be my approach. I though 4500 at the outset when I sold up at 7000 - this was about 40%. USA S and P still clinging to the 29% short shock scenario but the message is starting to sink in over there - you could sense it - next leg down imminent - when S and P gets below 29% fall at close then we will be looking at historic falls for economic downturns which are typically 49% to 57% on the FTSE - so would agree with TC - 4500 is a staging post that could hold if we had some sudden positive news on the virus - a game changer. The backstop at 3500 is sensible IMO. (Note 3300 to 3900 are aprox (49% to 57%).
Wanted to buy WTI oil for a 10% up trade but didn't get the opportunity - happy with the BOO trade - waiting for the next 9% in a day to buy the bounce - BOO is as good as any but the chart will have to be right.

Agree with everything you posted The BullCase - I think SLP is probably one of the best defensive stocks around - if they shut up shop for a year I don't think the cash spend would be huge and they could probably do so without damaging operations. They can sit on their cash pile and come back as pgm prices make it worthwhile. In the short term it is a profit maker now in any case. the only thing they would need to be wary of is any contractual obligations and of course moral obligations to the workforce.
Still - despite all of that I agree that the sp will head lower - not going to lose your shirt on this but maybe it will be more of a muscle shirt - no arms and a few of the buttons missing.

No new cases in China - billions of people and a rampant virus - yet no-one caught it yesterday. You would need to have your entire brain removed to believe that.
Lockdown - there will be no lockdown in Britain - transport will run - we will all be able to go to the shop.
WRES will not be a 20 bagger from here - the race is on - can they get production x APT price to = break even - if not then they need to ask banks for an interest holiday. If production cannot be got above the break even threshold then it is shut up shop time.
Just a few thoughts - reality does not exist in social media - everyone makes up a scenario that suits themselves and tries to pedal it as facts - well almost everyone.

Here's my made up scenario - the banks say have an interest holiday WRES - say 2 years. The production reaches 200T / month. APT prices stay where they have been for the past couple of weeks. Our buyers continue to buy all the metal we produce.
With all that the price would go to .25p easily.