All well thanks TC - I thought I was cynical but you are maybe more so than me. I always wonder when JPMorgan will ever say that the stocks are going to go down. If they have bought they say it will go up and if they want to sell they say it will go up so that they can sell to the new punters. The closest we get is that they say they expect volatility which appears to be code for the stocks are going to fall but don't you worry.
The headline to go with the figures was positive - Goldman say economic activity likely bottoming now. Then they say although they expect a 32% drop this quarter then 16% and 13% rises will follow - again a positive spin (it looks like it will regain most of the decline if you look at the raw figures and ignore the effects of compounding) - the bad news is in and lots of good news to come. I wonder if they are putting it out in a positive manner whilst gradually selling as the effects on companies will be catastrophic. Hope you and yours are well TC - have you managed to keep your business ticking along?
GLR looks to have some strength on the charts - not buying myself but good luck to those who have - it's very fickle and easily hyped which is a good reason to buy when it's low and wait for the next hype. In normal market conditions I would buy and sell it every 2 to 3 months.
Goldman Sachs just said they think world economic activity is bottoming right now - which I suppose it doesn't take a genius to work out given the countries tentatively coming out of lockdown - but they do give some figures which I have done a bit of calculation on.
Ist quarter (not Goldman's figures) activity down 6%
2nd quarter activity predicted to be down 32%
3rd quarter activity predicted to be up 16%
4th quarter activity predicted to be up 13%
By compounding these figures we get economic activity down by 36% at the end June compared to the year start. (world economy running at 64% of what it was at year start and about 62% of what was predicted.)
By year end we get world economy at 16% down on start of year activity (84% of the activity we had at year start and 80% approximately of what was expected.)
The whole world economy working at 80% of what analysts predicted at year start and that is after 7 to 8 months of recovery - got to be good for the climate but not so good for dividends and profits.
Best wishes to you and yours Snaffleman - give our thanks to your daughter. Whilst we sit at home and ponder stockmarkets she is out there doing a vital job - marvellous. Yours grandson is lucky to have you - you are vulnerable and he is young and in little danger and here you are worrying about him - a proper grandad. Good luck on your investing come back - let's hope it's soon.
Agree on markets TC and moneyhawk. JLP looking like a resilient share (caveate: a fall in markets will take everything down) - watch out for MacD crossing over on 3 month or 12 month chart - ok so far chart wise and in normal circumstances it looks set to rise some more but I have a feeling that the Amazon et al news is a bit of a game changer. The rally is based on only 22% of companies that have gotten above their 50 day moving averages - if confidence in those companies dissipates then it don't look too good.
Excellent rise for GLR holders - lets hope some cash is made there and helps JLP to move forward too.
Not in any shares but shorting FTSE 100
Good to see all your views, especially Peter H's alternative view - he is right so far.
(p.s. Peter I have been investing on and off for over 10 years in SLP so I didn't just pop in - until recently there hasn't really been a bb to chat on over there as it was usually just a couple of us posting - I did say it wouldn't see 40p and I was wrong).
Putting my short on the FTSE gradually - time will tell if it was the right move.
This link says what I have been saying but uses the VIX to say that investors are complacent. Personally I am not sure that the evidence from VIX supports the writer or myself. I am pretty sure that someone who thinks that markets are set to continue rising could use the VIX as evidence that they are also right.
Of more interest might be to hover your curser over the indices at the top of the page which reveals where IG clients are net long or short. 74% are short on Wall Street (stocks) but the balance is long for gold and neutral for the pound against the dollar.
Yes I am ok thanks Bluebelly - hope you are too. The VIX is used a lot in the States and Bloomberg often refer to it. Some commentators on there were saying that the VIX would fall and calm before the next drop - I suppose that makes sense as those who bought hold and new buyers stand on the sidelines. The battle between bulls and bears is going on at the moment but swings in price are small - hence the fall in the VIX.
On the other hand some were saying a month ago to keep out of the market until the VIX returned to normal - that proved wrong in the short term but might come true after the whole bear market is over. Missed out on gains or just not lost anything - I have kept away from posting for a while as I have found it all a bit stressful - watching the stocks defy gravity whilst waiting for reality to set in. Probably see stocks go up again tomorrow but the S and P 500 chart shows the formation of a head and shoulders pattern is nearly complete - but nearly isn't an indicator and so caution is needed. GLA - the JLP run up from 2p to 3p has rewarded the brave - well done to all who bought in.
Good find Oiltap - like your positive viewpoint at every turn. Car sales in China down 80% in lockdown. Down 40% a month after lockdown - what next? Down 205 down 10% and then. Well the market is pricing in a recovery up to 0% down and then up from there on in i.e. the virus set us back 6 months on the growth path - let's hope the market's are right. What happens if all parts of the market follow suit (which is anticipated) - well then we must have 'got back to normal' - the good old virus just went away and didn't come back - ah, problem - we need a vaccine for that to happen - so the scenario changes - we get -80% then - 40% then - then -20% then -10% and -10% and -10% month on month for a year or three. Most companies will be running at a loss for years or months - this is surely not factored in with the S and P 500 at December 2019 levels already.
Charts - FTSE 100 looks like it's ready to plunge to me and the time is getting closer - we may see some more short term strength (max 5% up) but with a possible 15% to 25% drop in a short time frame - a bit of a recovery but not as strong as the last rally (a chance there positive 14) before a dwindling and sideways malaise for another couple of years - moving to gold when an outright depression is avoided may well be a good plan.
JLP charts - short term we are at an interesting point where direction isn't all that clear - my best guess is that the maximum top is at 3.4p and there may be momentum to get there with start up news but the likelihood is that it is topping out now with 3.2p as the top (if I were betting). The share price is back on trend from the downtrend it was in before the crisis started - in other words it is through the short term 3.5p target that I mentioned a few months ago and has gone onto the possible (although I thought it improbable at the time) 3.0p predicted a couple of months ago. It has of course visited 2p on the way. The share price is where it might have been if the virus had never happened, although about 15% below the point I thought it was going to stop at.
JLP reality on the ground - a bit unsure of where we are. We know production is going to be down for the year on expectations and the palladium and platinum prices have fallen albeit supported by the shutdown and the blow out at a major refinery. JLP production of pgm's should rapidly recover but to what level is hard to tell but I would think close to 100% in a month or two. Chrome price has improved and so chrome should move from a problem to a slight asset. Sable is producing copper (price fallen but not terrible) but zinc will be delayed (price fallen but not delayed) - demand for pgm's should be down in my opinion but there are many other opinions. Production should also be down so we may get a balance - in that case JLP should make a nice profit throughout the coming 18 months to 3 years from pgm's but Sable and Kabwe will depend a lot on base metal demand which is unknown.
Not holding any myself G
link to David Erfl on Junior Gold mining - he is after your money as a subscriber but it is worth a read as it offers and opinion - he does call gold down and up - not just one of those who is always bullish on gold. I had a better source with excellent charts but he seems to have stopped posting - will do a bit of looking around.
Hi SaHyena - the gold shares I have mostly been involved with are CEY (Centamin Egypt) and FRES (Fresnilo). FRES has large exposure to silver and gold.
They are not out and out Juniors and have both had production problems, particularly FRES which has put in place a package to improve performance which should bear fruit over the next 6 to 12 months. If you love gold and silver and a recovery share combined then this is the high risk high reward one. I have bought lots of tiddlers in the past but I am out of touch now. So maybe exposure through a Junior Gold miner ETF from VanEck (GDXJ) is the way to go - they do the stock picking and risk is spread in a highly risky sector. Just looked at the chart for GDXJ and the 3 month chart looks like the FTSE but with a bigger rebound which says to me that the ETF and gold juniors will follow the indices down if that's what you believe is going to happen (my preferred scenario). A safer gold bet would be a fund such as Blackrock gold and general which will move with less volatility than the GDXJ.
well done on the shorting TC - expecting a little rise in markets and then the way down may be indicated on the 3 month and 1 week charts - watching for that as it looks imminent - may get in and out on false dawns but will hopefully catch the down draught when it comes. Any chance you could look at the GDXJ chart and indicators to give a second opinion?
I traded silver after the last crisis speedie - it got so I could tune into where it went next - hopefully might be able to do that again. decided not to short the FTSE today when it was 2% down - could have made a bit but will wait for a better opportunity. Trying to get the 1 year and 1 week chart with MacD giving short signals on both - if I can get it then going to go with double my normal bet and on 2x the movement. Reality seems to be dawning - except Trump of course - he has severe psychological problems that bloke.
Gold a bit of a funny one because my instinct is to buy gold as the fiat currencies are being debased by the financial helicopter approach from Governments. So I want to buy but when the market goes down so does the precious metal sector - as I think there is another big leg down then I have been waiting before buying any gold shares. Missed out on some nice rises but I would be selling them at the present time with a view to buying back in after the next big fall (not a given). Gold shares seem to be lagging the gold move IMO which may indicate that folks aren't convinced just yet. Last time gold led the recovery in share prices by 3 months - this time?
Holding physical gold is gold if you are wary of a collapse in society - but not silver as it comes with a heavy tax burden as it is no longer considered to be a currency. ETF gold or silver may be the best route but get ones that are backed by physical metal in a vault - many are just gold on paper and not backed by metal.
If / when gold goes parabolic then the shares in gold companies will do the same but with wings on. Gold mining juniors will outperform everything. Unless we enter a depression in which case hold cash until it's nearly all over.
In summary - I think the next big move will be down in the markets (how can it be up - it makes no sense) and it will take everything - will put 20% into gold miners at that point (after the fall). Still expecting 1600 on S and P 500 worse case and 49% to 57% fall on FTSE top to bottom and $8 silver and $600 platinum or lower. $4000 copper and $9 per barrel oil, although it may stick around $12 with all the intervention going on.
Will post a link to David Erfel on gold - he updates weekly.
It all sounded pessimistic when I read it back Rosewall - but maybe that is the reality - I think the stock market is very close to the end of phase2 - phase 1 massive fall - phase 2 big relief rally - phase 3 another big fall - phase 4 another smaller relief rally - phase 5 - dawdling sideways to downwards in a general malaise until the green shoots finally appear in 3 years or so.
Or it could be v shaped - straight down - we beat the virus - straight up - nice to think so but is it realistic? All the evidence says no to me - but that's just me.
JLP ran up to the bottom end of my predicted band at 2.9p (2.9p to 3.1p predicted).
The GLR news (I believe) is more pertinent to JLP than GLR. It shows that Colin has not applied for a licence as he is reported as doing - instead he has been clearing up the previously hidden problem that there is a problem with previous exploration rights and rights generally pertaining to Kabwe and surrounding area. GLR need to apply for a licence (90 days) and then get cash for development and have a JV with JLP and JLP need to get Sable up and running. GLR are no further forward in fact they are 90 days backwards as a mining licence which was expected is now going to be applied for - we think. JV and granting of licence look better bets now.
For JLP it looks like whatever the mess is surrounding rights at Kabwe has been looked at to some extent - so that is promising.
Holding nothing myself - reality is still not priced into the market - they still don't think we are at the start of a 3 year bear market. IMF saying world economy will grow by 4% in the second half - all economists always get all predictions wrong.
Good for GLR - holders - it's now back where I sold it. A lot of tosh being spouted on GLR bb- just part of mess cleared up - no progress on licence or contractors. Clears way for a JV with JLP - this clears away a problem which Colin never acknowledged existed. Good for holders to see a rise so pleased for them at least.
Looks solid and steady in a grinding up phase -local top could be between 2.8p and 3.1p - caveat - a renewed correction on major markets would take everything down again - but for a safe haven then JLP looks as good as any IMO.
Staying out of all investments for now - I can't afford to lose the cash I used to invest with any more as my debtors are in a much more precarious position now - so short term gambles with small amounts - in and out - are the order of my day GLA.
Italy have ignored calls from business to get back to normal and have extended the lockdown until 3rd May or 4 more weeks.
LA has extended it's lockdown to the middle of May.
New research has shown that without a lockdown 95% of the population would have been infected - so the 500,000 predicted deaths in the UK was not out of the question.
The CEO of Johnson and Johnson was interviewed on Bloomberg - watched it today. He has an arrangement for the USA to produce billions of vaccines. They won't start testing the vaccine on humans, which is one of the most advanced, until September 2020. He hopes to have hundreds of millions of vaccines available by the second quarter of 2021 (a year from now) to send to the areas of the world where the virus is most prevalent at that time. He then hopes to roll the vaccine out across the whole world over the length of 2021. With luck and great work from the scientists we should beat the virus in about a year and a half from now.
Good news from Europe on the 500 billion euro aid package which should offset one third of the economic damage being done.
Also for owners of oil shares there is a deal from Opec+ but (-)mexico - it will be interesting to see how it works and how the USA and Canada can contribute to the cuts - some think it is illegal for the Presidents to shut down companies - oil price should be all over the place in the coming months.