Member Info for Kalan

Just looked at 3 or 4 shares I follow Topcatz and even the one up over 12% was not tradable at a profit today - as you say the mm's know what they are doing - selling into this strength is very wise IMO (can be wrong).
charts show this and all the shares I looked at today are about to roll over and fall back.
before virus I had 3.7p def with 3.5p on a dip with 3p as absolute support.
Now got 2.5p as target with 2p as back up so not dissimilar to yours.
Football authorities flown in face of Government advice and shut down all football - empty pubs, and non paid players etc - more woe.

Good luck Ivans - I will raise a glass of water to your success - let's hope you are raising a glass of champagne. All the best.

100% agree Snaffleman - well said.

Absolutely no offence taken Craig - open and honest and share your successes and failures is the way forward.
Ivans has a different view from me - he sees this as cheap and he might be right - a lot depends on your time frame. I like to predict what will happen and then compare - if the reality follows my predictions then I stick with my mindset and if not I re-examine them.
yesterday I predicted 3% to 5% rise in JLP (up 4.92% at the moment but early in the day) - also thought it would be hard to trade such a small bounce. Market makers let you buy at 3.18p at one point this morning but sells around 3.1p so no chance to profit yet for day traders. If it stays like this then I will stick with my expectation that the JLP price will resume it's fall in due course.
There is a saying (there always is for every occasion) that history does not repeat but it chimes.
In 2000 the fall took 3 years. In 2008 it took 2 years (much more stimulus and intervention - reason?). why would it take less time this time around? There are two schools of thought - it's a short term thing and stimulus has kicked in already - it will be all over in a short time span (3 months from now) and it will be a v shaped recovery as the problem is demand and is temporary. The second stance is that the response apart from the UK (widely praised) has been pitiful (especially the EU which has pumped in one eight thousandths of a years GDP or 0.0125% of GDP) and this will lead to a financial crisis which means the fall will go on for much longer.
One commentator so far has said they are picking up some bargains with a little of their money in companies with good balance sheets. But even he thought this wasn't the bottom.
Personally I am preparing to buy in once the cases in the USA appear to have topped out because then folks will start looking towards the recovery. |Also preparing to be nimble because it may seem to be over at one point and stocks could recover about 20% t0 30% of their losses before resuming downwards to the real bottom (e.g. if a second wave of infections hit the Northern hemisphere as we hit next Winter).
Watching, waiting, predicting and measuring the success of the predictions. GLA and rip the p out of me any time you like - this skin is quite thick lol.

Yes Craig I said SLP wouldn't go above 40P again - one of my many faults - underestimating the enthusiasm of the herd.
1987 I bought on the second day of the crash - took 4 years to get my money back - don't be in a rush to buy.
In 2000 I left my missus and got divorced so had no cash and got some in 2003 and invested after the 3 year slump - fortunate.
In 2008 I believed the oft repeated mantra that gold is a safe haven - it is not - gold fell 20% and I lost 60% as I waited and waited for my shares to recover.
2020 - I had a measure to watch - 7000 on the FTSE - when it went so did I and sold the lot - every last share in everything. Looks like I have finally learnt but the hard way - I will have to invent a new way to mess it up this time lol.
JLP may rally tomorrow but if it does the market makers will pitch the spread at the opening and during the day to make trading at all but the tiniest profit impossible. They will suck people in and offload shares on them - each to their own but not for me thanks. Took my loss from paper to reality at the beginning - waiting and waiting - today the western world started to get a grasp on what is happening - all except Trump that is. he still thinks it's all about him and his re-election.
After yesterday's financial response from the BOE and Government and today's logistical and medical response from the Chief Medical Officer and Government I feel glad and proud to be British - it feels to me that we are starting to set the standards for the world again rather than cow tow and follow. Optimism amongst the worry for family and friends.

Stick around Craig - enjoy your posts - this time next year we'll be miwionaires - bargains being made all around us - we can share investment ideas as the bottom nears if you like - got 5 or 6 lined up - JLP being one of em of course.

Educasion educachion Edu....
Didn't he play for Arsenal.
Not Gaus , Edu.
4500 here we come? Wres doing very well all things considered - must be you stubborn lot holding on for grim death - keep it up.
Trump 0 out of 10. Lagarde 3 out of 10. Carney and the new Chancellor 9 out of 10. Masterman -3 out of 10. Unless of course we get the 200T.
GLA.

Absolutely Edsi - I try to tell it as I see it - what actions anyone takes is entirely up to them. I think JLP will survive this and prosper. Metal prices will recover but they are still going down. Gold and silver just joined in. last time gold fell 20% and so far it is down 9% - so we have a bench mark for the bottom right there. 4500 on the FTSE is realistic IMO - JLP can buck the trend - what you need to ask is, is it likely?
The charts say no.
Look away and ride it out is an option. Sell up at a loss is an option. Buy more to average down is an option. I made my choice some time ago. The longer you hold the more sense it makes to continue holding as you are closer to the bottom.
On the fundamentals - Kabwe apart, JLP is making quite a bit of money at current pgm prices and are paying out quite a bit in chrome and pgm purchases and Sable transformation. How far zinc and copper go will determine Sable's short term profitability. In the medium term it should bounce back.
The fundamentals are deteriorating but still encouraging.
The charts tell us what others are doing - ignore the others and invest on fundamentals and you will be ok in the medium to longer term but you get short term pain unless you look away.
Good luck with whatever your strategy - after today's absolute battering on Trump's Exocet and La Gardes powder puff response there should be a bounce of 3-5% as another bunch see bargains at these prices. Was really impressed with the UK's co-ordinated response yesterday - the EU should let our boffins run their economy for them and somebody needs to get Trump a gag and remove his Twitter finger.

Palladium may have found some support around 2100 in the last half an hour - let's see how that goes.

Year long bull run in JLP is over. 200 day EMA has turned downwards and the 50 day EMA has crossed the 200 day EMA - a bearish sign. It looks like the speculators have decided the palladium bubble is over and palladium price is nearly vertical. Platinum just entered a bear market as well.
Good luck to all holders.

Platinum just entered a bear market (palladium did last week) and palladium looks like it is being dumped by speculators - the fall today is near vertical. The deficit in palladium supply is all but being wiped out by falls in car sales which will impact pgm demand.
However, this is fairly short term. EUA are looking at selling something to be mined over a 30 year + time frame. Deficit in palladium will return - maybe EUA is better suspended for a year until palladium is back on it's way up.
The value of the company was never as high as some were saying on here and it is no way going to be down to zero as the palladium deficit will return. GLA.

Read the JMAT report Tiger. Since then car sales expected to be 8% down but supply reduced by about 5% for about 3 months so net about 7% reduction. Undersupply was about 10% but ETFs will release some - conclusion - in first half of 2020 we may be close to balance in supply and demand but when the recovery gets underway in earnest palladium should move quickly back into deficit and rise accordingly - so putting a couple of palladium producers on my 'to buy' list when the worst is over in the USA. Compiling a list of shares and trusts to pile into when the bottom is in. Could be a couple of months yet at best and a couple of years at worst.

Following the 'normal' or 'Gaussian' distribution curve.
WRES held up well this week given the markets movement.

Cheers Tiger - will do.
I also like silver Rosewall - the ratio to gold will correct back but not yet IMO. Got my eye on Fresnilo which mines silver and gold but has had a rough time of it production wise. The actions they have taken should boost production in the second half when I believe gold and supercharged silver could take off. Not buying anything yet.
FTSE dropped through temporary support at 6000 as expected. Now headed towards 4500 IMO if it follows previous patterns (have seen NicetoMichu suggesting 5200 as an alternative bottom - a poster I have a lot of respect for so will watch closely when it gets there just in case).
As for JLP (and SLP actually) - holding up well IMO, particularly this week - supporting the idea that they are a bit of a safe haven. Palladium is in a bear market, platinum not quite just yet, Zinc in a massive bear market (down 44% from it's peak) and copper also now in a bear market - despite that JLP is up on the week whilst the FTSE has given up another 500 points. Noticed some resilience in a few AIM miners this week - maybe us amateurs being mugged or maybe they went further than most at the start? We will see.

Bugger the Banks - take a look at historical data - last time gold was mooted as a safe haven in the financial crisis it actually fell 20%. I for one, am expecting the same this time.
In the financial crisis - gold was rising - it got taken down in the crisis and resumed the rise afterwards - so if history chimes we may see the rise everyone is talking about when the worst is over from the virus and the massive stimulous starts to indicate that inflation is on the way. History doesn't often repeat but it does chime.
The problem with reading Kitco articles and the gold miners bb's is that you only get the gold bulls side of the story and not a balanced view. Totally in cash myself until the death rate rises, levels and then starts to fall in the USA. Might buy some FRES then. The company fundamentals will be looking better in the second half of the year as well. Good luck and keep some cash on the side lines.

The flanks permission is a given. It is enshrined in law.
p.s. Palladium entered a bear market today - having dropped over 20% from it's peak. Still rosey at these levels for EUA at this time. Platinum only down about 18% so not technically in a bear market yet. Any idea if they have started up mining again after the winter break?

At 5p I would be tempted to buy back one fifth of my previous holding.
In the USA apparently the 'moms and pops' were sold the shares that others were trying to sell so desperately - they were promoted as being at bargain prices and the 'moms and pops' duly obliged.
Are we moms and pops?

Hi Tiger - yes I think the next stahe of the crash is just starting - every time I listen to American Senators or pundits they seem to be failing to get a grasp of what is going on. they think that in a few days or weeks they will just reveal a stimulus package which will stop the rot and then the virus will disappear and all will be ok.
palladium is now technically in a bear market. platinum has another couple of % points to fall before it enters a bear market, Rhodium as you say is holding up well but has fallen back today. palladium at $1500 in the next couple of weeks is possible IMO and palladium sub 1000 again is also possible in time. platinum close to 600 also possible.
SLP management have done a great job - the cash inflow and share buy backs have supported the share price but 20p to 30p easily on the cards there IMO.
Not holding a single share in anything - have looked at gold for safe haven but fell for that last time - gold fell 20% and gold miners got battered - gold will not jump up without silver and silver needs to break $19 an ounce to break out - it isn't anywhere near. Wouldn't be surprised to see gold at $1400 or less in the coming months.
Sorry to sound so gloomy but as the saying goes 'when the USA sneezes the world catches a cold'. A big sneeze yet to come over there when they start locking down in earnest. Probably be something small that does it - like a celebrity getting the virus.
Will check out the palladium and platinum switch stuff - thanks.

Going the wrong way - Abu Dhabi announced and increase in production today - they are hooked on spending and need the cash for the ongoing projects - development is moving forward at a rapid pace - falling revenues offset by pumping out more.
Saudi Arabia also further increased production - at current prices they will run out of financial reserves in 5years ( a long time) and are responding by pumping out more.
The gradual pull back in US shale oil production will take time as holes become depleted but is the only good spot on the horizon for oil prices.
As for SAVPs cash position - who knows - is this why the long slow decline was on anyway? Who knows?

Excellent work by the bank of England and co-ordinated with the new Chancelor alongside the budget later today - a fine blue print for others to follow according to Bloomberg commentators (who were critical of the EU in comparison).
as for BREXIT - Carney says it's no problem - even with a no deal (what a change of attitude) - they have other ammunition to fire and he sees no deal meaning simply a transfer of people and companies from one area of the economy to another which will take a little time.
handy Andy - the new Governor says they have used less than 50% of the ammunition available to them in this package - so don't worry about BREXIT - the cliff is about 1 inch high.
Thank goodness we don't rely on the ECB for our finances and thank goodness we haven't got a Labour government right now.
Rule Britannia.