Member Info for Kalan

In 2015, North American shale oil (also referred to as “tight” oil), had an average breakeven price of $68 per barrel. Today, the average breakeven price for the same oil is estimated to be $46 per barrel.14 May 2019
Some of shale production in USA has breakeven at $27 but some as high as $85.
Got to affect new drilling at these prices but it will take time to feed through to the market.
Buy when the infection rate starts to fall in the USA - not even got going upwards yet - looking to buy back in in May probably.

JLP don't use AMPLATS.
SLP - can't find any info - 2 contracts - so could be for part of production but don't know.

Ragnar - there wasn't any prior guidance from AMPLATS for Rhodium so can't help with actual figures sorry.

Ignore em Isphahan - it seems to be a bi-product of automated trading - many of them go through around luchtime.

Platinum down about 12% and palladium down about 9% from their peaks a couple of weeks ago.
Both up about 3% so far on the AMPLTS back up refinery shut down. Should take 500,000 ounces temporarily out of the market - platinum and 300,000 ounces of palladium. should be about 3 months but then the stockpile will flood the market - short term a real bonus for the producers who do not rely on AMPLATS for refinery - at least it is offsetting some of the demand loss.

Amplats losing their back up refining means that 500,000 ounces of platinum and 300,000 ounces of palladium will be lost in production over the next 80 days - helps offset some of the demand side fall. helping pgm prices today and got to help JLP's bottom line.
Still out of all shares for the time being myself but this is a boost for those holding - I suppose the large stockpile that AMPALTS will run up will depress prices later in the year but JLP need cash now whilst they are in a big spend mode so all to the good for JLP in the short term. Good luck to all holders.

It looks like the virus is going to act pretty much like other viruses. It is already circulating in the UK and will continue to do so for years to come. A vaccine is probably about 18 months away and in future years those who are vulnerable are likely to be vaccinated along with the flu jab. In the short term the only way to control the spread is to minimise contact between human's. This will slow things down and enable hospitals and mortuaries to cope with the rise in illness and deaths.
I have resigned myself to getting it sooner rather than later. I look after the grandkids and my daughter and husband are teachers at different schools. My wife also teaches. the number of possible contacts is huge. I am 59 years old and maybe just maybe it is better to get the virus now and get it out of the way. In 3, 4 5 years time it may have a worse effect than it will now.
As for markets - they haven't over reacted in my opinion for what it's worth. When it breaks out in the USA it will take about 3 months for the cases to peak - as soon as it peaks in the USA it will be safe to return to the markets. In the meantime I have everything in cash. WRES could be an exception in that it may drop to .2p or lower and good production figures could provide a good trading opportunity. More importantly my dad, Aunty and step daughter would find the virus difficult to cope with and dealing with that is far more difficult when the virus is likely to be around for a considerable time before they can be vaccinated. GLA and good health.
p.s. Hartlepoolbob - we haven't had any austerity - we have been spending more than we earn for about 20 years - at no point have we spent less than we earn - which would be austerity.

If palladium drops to 900 and platinum to 600 JLP should survive. Payments to make for pgms and chrome but they have the placing money and good income at the moment. Could always delay Kabwe to preserve cash. Jlp in a more robust position than most. Lots of pgm miners are cash rich so should be ok

Good luck to everyone - the best of health - even to DB.
By the way DB I note your post:
"Reddington, yes, its a complete war zone at the minute. I see no straong improvement for a long while even after it finds the bottom. Expect to see a "W" for a long time and I don't mean Tungsten. Kalans move was a wise one, shame he'd gobbed off about his charting skills and namecalling though".
Geng and myself said this share was going to break out - you didn't look back at the posts where someone posted that it can break out down as well as up and I stated that I had chosen my words carefully for that very reason. it has broken out and after a fake move up (quite common) it has broken downwards which is obviously a sell signal. Argumentative and mean spirited - you are not one tenth the person that so many good folks on this bb are. These are difficult times in the world and for those invested and all you want to do is point score - shame on you. I won't be replying to anything else you post so go on and vent your spleen - you can really win now and make everyone feel bad - that seems to be your only aim. Fill your boots at my expense - off you go an open goal - hope it makes you feel better.

Enjoy your holiday Tonlin - by may you will be safer there than here. The first places to get hit are the first ones to get over the worst of it. new cases appearing here now from folks coming back off holiday - within 30 miles of where I live now - brought back from Teneriffe.
Have done some more research - kids seem to be immune to the virus. especially under 12's. very few deaths in under 35's. In China most that have dies are older men. Apparently 505 of men in China smoke but only 2% of women and it is thought the concentration of deaths in men is due to smoking.
it appears that 60% to 80% of us are going to get the virus and those getting ill are older people, smokers, people with damaged immune systems, heart problems and diabetes. So if you are a 35 year old non smoker you will be fine (almost certainly). Got myself on an exercise regime to try and boost my lung capacity in anticipation. Trying to work out how to isolate my dad who is a 79 year old chain smoker with chronic lung disease - isolation would seem to be his only hope.

Good post Tonlin. maybe a 3rd party reading both our posts together will get a realistic view of the situation. Agree that the fundamental position has not changed as long as Tungsten stays put in terms of pricing - so will keep watching - ready to buy back in at some point if Tungsten stays put.

Posted as a friend with an opinion that may be different to your own - no malice intended. Just my thoughts that you can ignore.
I sold all my shares in every company when the FTSE first touched below 7000. In recent pull backs this figure has always held and given comfort. as soon as it broke I was looking at 6000 for the next support.
the AIM market is down over 25% from it's peak so far.
FTSE is over 15% down so far.
Bloomberg commentators were talking about a 20% to 25% correction before the virus came along.
In the past 20 years we have already had 2 fall backs of over 40%. The first in 2000 to 2003 caused by the dot com bubble (and ended as the so called SARS (it was a coronavirus) threat ended). The second was due to the subprime scandal combined with socialist governments borrowing beyond belief in 2007 to 2009.
How does this compare - well the slowdown in world economies was there for all to see and the markets kept rising due to the interest rate and money printing policies of governments. They kicked the can down the road in 2008 and it landed here. Now we have the supercharged reasons to cut off the demand side of the economy - so a 40% pullback seems warranted to set things straight. The markets aren't irrational now - they were rising in an irrational way before .That would take to FTSE to about 4500.
what impact does this have on JLP - sentiment gets bashed - it's happening now and those topping up are trying to catch a falling knife. Also the fundamentals get altered. Platinum is falling and tin is part of the income. Zinc and copper are falling and they are part of planned future profits. Palladium is holding up becausei t was in deficit - the reality that this is changing has not entered the psychy of those who love the metals and need the metals for their business. From the moment that the metals buyers realise that they may be able to buy either Palladium cheaper next week - it will drop like a stone.
Some are running to gold - gold is also falling - everyone is talking about safe haven - there isn't one. In 2008 I was in gold as a safe haven - big mistake - it fell 20% and gold miners fell more. there was a massive bull run in gold that went on afterwards but at the time of the crisis it fell with everything else.
Cash is king - this virus is rife already and there's no stopping it and demand is being crushed - commodity prices will/ are getting crushed - share prices will be magnified in their fall.
It was like a punch to the stomach selling up at a loss (20% on average) but I have slept better since. Read Mohamad Al Aryan if you are temped to buy the dips - GLA and good health.

I sold all my shares in every company when the FTSE first touched below 7000. In recent pull backs this figure has always held and given comfort. as soon as it broke I was looking at 6000 for the next support.
the AIM market is down over 25% from it's peak so far.
FTSE is over 15% down so far.
Bloomberg commentators were talking about a 20% to 25% correction before the virus came along.
In the past 20 years we have already had 2 fall backs of over 40%. The first in 2000 to 2003 caused by the dot com bubble (and ended as the so called SARS (it was a coronavirus) threat ended). The second was due to the subprime scandal combined with socialist governments borrowing beyond belief in 2007 to 2009.
How does this compare - well the slowdown in world economies was there for all to see and the markets kept rising due to the interest rate and money printing policies of governments. They kicked the can down the road in 2008 and it landed here. Now we have the supercharged reasons to cut off the demand side of the economy - so a 40% pullback seems warranted to set things straight. That would take to FTSE to about 4500.
what impact does this have on WRES - sentiment gets bashed - it's happening now and those topping up are trying to catch a falling knife. Also the fundamentals get altered. Tin is falling and tin is part of the income. Tungsten is holding up (like palladium) because t was in defeiit - the reality that this is changing has not entered the psychy of those who love the metals and need the metals for their business. From the moment that the metals buyers realise that they may be able to buy either Tungsten or Palladium cheaper next week - they will drop like a stone.
But we have gold - gold is also falling - everyone is talking about safe haven - there isn't one. In 2008 I was in gold as a safe haven - big mistake - it fell 20% and gold miners fell more. there was a massive bull run in gold that went on afterwards but at the time of the crisis it fell with everything else.
Cash is king - this virus is rife already and there's no stopping it and demand is being crushed - commodity prices will/ are getting crushed - share prices will be magnified in their fall.
It was like a punch to the stomach selling up at a loss (20% in WRES) but I have slept better since. Read Mohamad Al Aryan if you are temped to buy the dips - GLA and good health.

I thought production price was $400 per ounce for Inyoni and $700 per ounce for Windsor. I assumed that the basket price was around $1000 per ounce. I also calculated on the basis of 6000 ounces per month. This gave earnings for pgms of about $14 million (for this 6 months period compared to $8 million for last half year).
From the video I now understand that average production costs are about $500 (this may increase as more is produced from Windsor) and that the basket price is up about $400 per ounce which I believe puts it between $1100 and $1200. But we are not yet at 6000 ounces as this is the target.
Hence, I have increased the operational earnings to somewhere closer to $20,000 for the first half from about $14000. How much closer depends on operations and the sustainability of the basket price.
Once again there may be confusion as to the amount of Palladium. Previously some thought that palladium was 40% but this was by value not volume. It is not clear from Leon's speech what the 36% for palladium is as he mentions value just before giving the percentages. 11% to 13% Rhodium seems very high to me by volume - would expect around 2% or3%. So maybe these percentages are by value again with palladium having reduced from last time he said it due to the increase in % value of Rhodium relative to the other minerals. Just putting that out there for discussion.
As for Kabwe - he seemed positive and sure that 3rd party material was abundant. One nagging thought is why didn't the previous owners of Sable (who are no mugs) use Sable to produce copper and zinc and cobalt from the easily available 3rd party material in the region? It was my understanding that it was the high grade waste of Kabwe that made this previously unwanted plant become highly profitable again. Perhaps I am reading too much into it.
Anyway, under normal circumstances the pgm income would justify this sp on it's own. Let's hope for a quick return to 'normal' circumstances.
On the chart front - it did as expected with 3.5 and / or the 200 day moving average acting as support and Leon's interview did indeed provide a little rise from that base point. As they say in Gone with the Wind "Tomorrow is another day".

Brilliant update - was expecting earnings to rise from $8 million last half to $14 million for this current half. Given the figures Leon just shared I can se pgm earnings at nearer to $20 million this half assuming that pgms are not taken down in price. Also he seems bullish about Kabwe but there has definitely been a shift in focus away from tailings to 3rd party material - the whole emphasis has changed - not saying this is a bad thing but it has changed.
Would love to put 50% of my share money in here and 10% in GLR right now but I am holding off for a couple of months to see how the pandemic pans out.
Great update IMO.
For clarity - holding no shares in any companies right now.

3.7p support obviously gone. Currently share price is being supported by the 200 day moving average and is quite a bit oversold so we should see a pause in the movement at 3.5p for the time being (short term) and maybe a slight uplift. In the current market conditions all predictions are short term as things are moving fast and volatility is increasing.

Theres no rush Charthopper.

Been watching Bloomberg and their China expert living in America said that China will be back to normal in about 3 months but rest of the world is the big worry as the affect of restrictions is minimal at the moment but set to grow. Maybe investing country by country in order of when the outbreak occurred may prove worthwhile. China may be first to recover on the back of cheap metals for manufacturing.

Yes I read that earlier Porschefund. I did say it is mild compared to the Spanish Flu.
This is 2020 and we are at the end of one of the longest bull runs ever - it needs a catalyst to cause the fall - here it is. IMO.
In 2003 markets had been depressed and were ripe for a rise and the contained virus wasn't going to stop it.
My logic says don't panic - it will soon pass and fundamentals will re-assert. My experience is not to hold whilst the others panic. SAVP has some of the best defence characteristics around and will get up to 35p then 70p in time so a lot depends on your time frame. Good luck - SAVP will come good.

Hi Michu - I think this is a black swan event - everyone keeps being amazed by the USA bull run - nothing seemed to stop it - climbing a wall of worry etc - all the old clichés. No-one predicted a virus outbreak of this nature though and even tough it is mild compared to say the Spanish Flu which killed far more than the world war it followed, it will have a massive effect on human behaviour and sentiment. In the next month or so we will see people in the UK walking around in masks, keeping kids off school, not turning in for work etc. Demand is being crushed and will be crushed more. Luckily SAVP is one of the least exposed to all this - a niche position in a fairly isolated part of the world but those who invest in it live in areas that are going to see a reasonable amount of panic. Cashed out with a 40% loss - living to fight another day (hopefully) I am retired and don't want to risk the lifestyle I have to chase profits to give to the next generation - 3 to 4 months from now the investment place will be different with cash rich folks looking for bargains - watching from the side lines having taken the punch to the stomach of realising my losses. 3 years profits down the pan - looking forward to starting again with a fresh slate. SAVP will be back on plate at a later date.