Member Info for Kalan

It would be nice to think we could lock down for a month and get rid of it Elenor but the reality is it would just come back unless we stop all movement of people in or out of the country after the 4 week lockdown until we can all be inoculated which could be 2 years. Imunity is building up - probably 50% to 70% of us will get it before we can be inoculated - the government is doing their best to makes sure that the most vulnerable are the least number to be infected whilst we build up the immunity in the healthy population to protect the vulnerable.
if we could just lock down for a month and it would go away - we would have done it by now. look after you and yours and try to enjoy the downtime at least in part if you can.

Thanks for the BOO suggestion Topcatz (I have just checked the price) - was thinking of BP or Shell and when you said BOO the charts just looked spot on. Up 15% when the share dropped 16% on the day was a bit of luck - you posting just when you did. Still got my shares as I was playing football with a 4 year old and tiggy off the ground with a y year old from 3.15 to 6 pm. Lost 10-4 at football and was 'on' for 95% of the tiggy. Good fun all round. Let's see if I can get out of BOO with a profit - on school run from 6.30 am to 9.15 am- may have to sell on my phone whilst making porridge lol. Keep up the teamwork - some good folks in and around JLP - cheers TC. £400 + is good for a trade in this market I think.

So far so good.
my step daughter just e-mailed me a KPMG report on the Christmas 2019 trading performance of all retailers - average on line traders recorded a 16% increase in sales year on year for Christmas period. boo was up 44% and was the biggest increase. I suppose that is why it has fallen so far as the share price would have been inflated by those great results (like SLP in palladium arena) - if Boo can't survive then all other clothes retailers will have gone first IMO.

TC - bought £3000 worth of BOO for a trade 5 minutes ago - looks like a bounce to 150 or 160 is on the cards - not normal markets so very risky - hence the small bet - in for a short time and out again.

Hi TC - been looking at oil this morning and got BP and Shell on my watchlist. WTI is down to $23 to $24 ad $20 was my target entry point. Oil did go down to about $9 in 1998 when OPEC crumbled before so there could still be downside after $20. last dip it went to $17. I think BP and Shell will be what the grandkids put their money in and hold. They might be my first buy and hold for the recovery or OPEC news turn around.
Boo not my area - done some questioning of my daughter (prolific online spender) she says it is a successful on line retailer but focuses on the cheaper end and those people buying cheeper clothes will be without cash for longest. Also no-one is going out so why do they need new clothes - because they are women that's why and they have little else to do if isolated. So we (her0 estimates that if the main distancing period is about 3 months we should see about a 25% drop in revenue this year but with an ongoing effect into the future. I checked the cash and they have one quarter of annual revenue in cash - so they should be ok for a year but thereafter who knows. It looks set for a bounce you could trade soon IMO - even right now is possible - overall I think the shares would be exceptionally cheap at 80 and decent at 120 - it seems to have dropped a lot more than others. Of course Amazon in comparison has done much better because it is diversified.

Good posts Bluebelly and TBTT - yes phenomenal cash generation and they will be fine at SLP.
Where SLP or any share ends up does depend on the depth to which metals fall and the length of time to recovery.
yesterdays relief rally that affected gold may be repeated a few times. bluebelly's post on the peak being in about a month is very important and the peak in the US is even more important IMO. The USA always leads the world out of recession - it will need to have a psychology of the worst being over before things can start to turn.
Specifically on SLP - Rhodium and Palladium are now down about 45% from their peaks - which means SLPs profitability is down more than this - say about 55% +. So they are still making money and have lots of cash in the bank and are still adding to it and of course the share buybacks mentioned by TBTT are hugely supportive.
Today it is reported that China is considering stopping the new laws on car emissions to help manufacturers - this was the main cause of the palladium and rhodium rise.
Looking forward it is easy to see Rhodium and palladium back down to almost where they were 3 years ago with platinum at around $500. SLP will be worth 8p + the value of the cash pile and this could be considerable. If SLP doesn't hit 20p I will be amazed and what a bargain it could be when this is all over. We have had 1 month of this and there is a minimum of 8 months to go and possibly 3 years - SLP could be a good one for the stock pickers in this environment. I want to hold SLP and JLP and they both are much cheaper than they were so it's tempting. But I remember thinking this before. GLA.

My brother in law does final polishes etc to new cars - last week 13 cars - this week 2 - very small amount of data to go on I know.
Weeble is right about JLP - there will be production being taken off the table and JLP is well placed to focus on profitable minerals and cut costs. What price to pay is the question - looking at 4 to 5 years then 2p to 2.5p looks a bargain. Looking at 3 months to 9 months who knows whether this is cheep or expensive? Almost every share I follow has identical charts and indicators - a flatter calmer period than before as TC has been intimating.

TC it has had a rest for 24 hours but is now in the zone where it could resume falling again but yes there is a chance of some short term resistance around the 2p to 2.25p area as you correctly called.

I have a theory on SLP - don't throw stuff at me will yer.
Shares like EUA have a lot of 'investors' that know very little about mining or what they are buying into. It becomes a religious experience for them - they believe and nothing can shake their belief (see GKPers still promoting the company after a 99% fall). They do not sell when they should. EUA may be a bad example as it is suspended but I am sure we would have seen a raft of bargain hunters and topper uppers if they could.
Now SLP has many long term and thoughtful investors but it did catch the palladium / rhodium bug and attract a few of the less savvy retail investors at the back end IMO (that's why I thought 40p was it - but it went to 60p - I got it wrong and underestimated the enthusiasm of the newly converted). They are believers and think SLP cannot lose. It has taken longer than with other shares for the reality to start to feed through to them.
The reality is that Platinum at $350 an ounce for example in costs and selling at $1050 was 200% profit and now at $650 and ounce it is about 85% Profit. based on platinum the sp should have dropped by about 60% but it was only down about 15% until Friday. Palladium and especially Rhodium were laggards as institutions held onto them a little longer in case the downturn was short lived - they are now following platinum.
IMO - IF SLP was worth 60p then it will soon be worth 24p and of course it can over correct. last time I bought SLP it was 8p and not long ago - just saying - cue throwing stuff at me.

Stock market (UK) could go another 15% to 25% Craig looking at historical data - can see why you would let it ride with the ones you have kept to this point - difficult to sell when you can't be sure where the bottom is and it has already fallen 33%. Next couple of days will be crucial for US market. Still not dropped below that 29% level but I think it looks imminent - the actions taken to control the virus spread look like they are causing financial problem on top of the supply and demand problems IMO. US institutions are doing what you are doing and holding on for the good times to return - we may see capitulation in their resolve at some time. You, my friend appear to be made of sterner stuff.

Just looked at SLP Craig - I don't fancy the chances in the short term looking at the charts (I have got that one wrong before as you remember lol). A little rally on JLP but running out of steam already and the rally on SLP looked like a good one to sell into IMO. Can't believe some of the boards I look at - all the way down folks are 'topping up' and getting 'bargains' or 'lowering their average' - anyone who has held onto shares should at least be thinking of diversifying if they think this is the bottom - lots of companies, especially ones with large debt are going to go under. no point having all your eggs in one basket if the basket gets smashed.
SLP are in a strong position and will be a good buy in 6 months to 3 years time. JLP should survive - but we don't know the debt situation and the Kabwe state of play. Mothball Kabwe and just do pgms to get cash in short term to provide a buffer may be prudent - the thing is on Kabwe - only Leon knows the margins and even then they are estimates. At current pgm prices they should still be churning profits. drastic action may be needed IMO but JLP should survive easily enough.

Respect and admiration for your daughter GIT she is showing the better side of humans - you post brought a lump to my throat - pride, respect and love for your children and grandchildren - nothing tops it.

None of us know where the bottom is TC for markets or individual stocks - the US stock market has rallied again at the key 30% down level - I still think they are just behind the curve and will catch up when the statistics reveal the picture to them.
The UK should do relatively well in terms of GDP being hit IMO - I think our Government has taken the best route for health and the economy - but only time will tell.

All we were bothered about was the tonnage - it was all that mattered.
Now we have the APT price as well - it has held up but for how long - demand has fallen but so did supply - where is the balance - need to keep a keen eye on it - anyone got access to a daily figure that we can use.
The third is what is happening to broader markets - they take down everything and WRES is a thing.
The fall in WRES before the virus was due to delays and tonnage doubt - they were priced in. The falls since the virus are not logically justified and could be a buying opportunity. However, the market may be anticipating a rapid fall off in the APT price which, if it is on the way and is sustained for any period would justify the virus falls and more.
50% fall in APT prices for 3 years means WRES is finished - unlikely and APT prices have held up - but a keen eye on the APT prices is vital at this time - anyone help out here.

Just had a quick scan of several indicators and read/listened to a few commentators.
JLP - I think we will see a bounce from now - buy at 2.285p to 2.5p - only prepared to risk say £3000 and could make 10% or about £300 - on balance have decided it isn't worth the risk for that mount of reward so leaving it alone. Long term low was at 1.3p (I did buy at 1.6p before).
US markets back to about 28% down - still not given up on my Scenario1 of an event driven crash and this is the bottom - listening to US commentators they are starting to expect that this will give way to scenario 2 i.e. much more to fall - maximum I expect is 57% and this would surely give us JLP at 1.3p. we are at a key point in the US - so watch and do nothing for me.
As for safe havens - gold and silver have dropped though support (silver massive support) - gold could go to $1370 then $1250 and then just above $1000 but could gain traction and rally at any time. Risky punt - not for me.
Silver has really crashed through strong support and it would be like trying to catch a falling knife - Jim Wykoff (massive gold and silver supporter) looking at $8.4 per ounce silver - it dropped 15% today to $12.4 - a good example of when a bargain looks a bargain but it isn't.
Temptation all around us and another rebound may be starting now- sitting on my hands - there is plenty of time - we are not going to miss out. Doing some more research - will share.

Well I said 25p written all over it - but I didn't expect it in a day. What now? Need to re-look at the charts.

Excellent call TC - the problem is that I want to buy JLP at 2.25p and silver at $2 an ounce but it can get worse from here - going to study some charts now to see if there is a small trading opportunity somewhere. If S and P drops though the 30% area then we may have a long, long wait for recovery.

Topcatz - I wanted my parents to take the position your parents have but they are adamant. I take your preparation of food logic - good point - can't see waiters washing hands between clearing a table and serving up new food every time they go into the kitchen. personally - I am 59 and do tend to get viruses quite easily but I am thinking getting out out of the way might be best- a big step to go from pub to pub trying to get it though - will let nature take it's course and avoid seeing my parents too much in case I pass it to them. We are booked to go away to an hotel with them - they are very keen to go and get out of the house!!

I agree with Speedie GKB47 - I understand your point of view and I am sure you believe it is better to take action and lock down- that's ok but I am happier to have this government doing what it is doing. It is a holistic approach - only isolate the vulnerable and build up immunity in the population so that it gets us to the point of returning to normality quicker and helps save lives as the virus will find it harder to get to the vulnerable because the immunity will act as a barrier.
Taking Italy as an example - they do not seem to have a holistic approach - their short term is to isolate and reduce infections and deaths now. So far so good - what next? Isolate for ever - not feasible. So the epidemic is declared over in Italy - then 4 or 5 weeks later they have to do it all again and again and again until the immunity is built up. Meanwhile their economy is destroyed, poverty spreads, their health service can't be funded, poor people start to get other diseases. Italy will do what we are doing now once they see that what they have done so far didn't work in the longer term.
we need to put aside political bias - those opposed to what our government is doing are mostly supporters of other political parties - they are doing damage to the strategy without an alternative strategy that will work. The medical and financial and social response has been well thought through - we need to stick with it and not lose our nerve. My opinion for what it's worth.

Price declined about 2% but held up well - uncertain as to what happens next - here is and exerpt:
"Fastmarkets’ latest assessment for tungsten concentrate 65% WO3, in-whs China was at 91,000-93,000 yuan per tonne on Wednesday March 11, down by 2.1% from the previous week.

Looking to the future
The future trend in the tungsten market depends on how long the global coronavirus situation lasts and whether China’s new infrastructure projects can boost economic growth, sources said.

Market sources are deeply concerned about the rapid spread of coronavirus, worrying that any isolation measures - such as those China took in late January - will disrupt local companies’ production and affect their need to import material from China.

“We are keeping a close eye on the coronavirus situation in Europe, though our APT customers in Germany tell us that they’re maintaining normal operations,” a fourth trader source said. “We hope the disease can be controlled and then subside as quickly as possible.”

Domestic companies are now relying on the ‘new infrastructure’ investments that the Chinese government announced it would accelerate.

“Tungsten is widely applicable in transport, energy, construction, electron and industrial usage. For example, tungsten is used to make circuit board, which is needed to construct fifth generation (5G) networks, data centers, artificial intelligence and industrial network infrastructure,” a producer source said.

Additionally, tungsten is an important feedstock for making cemented carbide, the so-called hardmetal, which is widely used for engineering machinery.

“Hardmetal tools are installed and used on machining equipment, so the construction of intercity expressways and railways will depend heavily on such machines,” the producer source added. “Hopefully, the infrastructure projects will boost China’s economy in the second quarter and the tungsten market will improve with the economic recovery.”