Member Info for Kalan

Mmm if he did deny it, wouldn't you say he was lying?

Don't you just hate anti-social media. Time for a nap.

Good old gotreal....

Happy new year - that was a nice thing to say - keep up your New Years resolution - much more civilised x

Excellent graphs Seisnav - thanks for sharing. It looks to me that the sp of JLP follows the pgm prices approximately over the longer term and varies due to news over the short term before returning to trend.

Jubilee Metals is still seen as Jubilee Platinum as far as the market is concerned. The main investors don't believe it until they see results on the balance sheet. We buy on hope, they buy on results.

The latest big buy was at 5.5p in the placing which indicates what the large players value the company at as it stands. We want the sp to reflect the future potential and the rise to 6.7p+ was due to a ramp up of interest from we smaller buyers. I still think we will see 5.5p again but new news could change that. After that 9.5p target on results, sticking with prediction of 6.7p by year end. Buy at 5.5p, and end of year 6.7p is a 22% rise (very good return). Buy at 5.5p and sell at 9.5p is 77% return (excellent). Hoping to buy soon and then just leave it in Leon's hands.

Buttermilk - some people are sitting on 20%, 30%, 40% short term gains here and were hoping for more. It looks like a few have decided to cash in and crystallize their profits as the shares initial new year enthusiasm waned. It's just part of the normal gyration of sentiment, fear and greed, fear of falling to the placing price has a slight upper hand at the moment, short term profits beating long term expectations. It won't last nd gives a buying opportunity for those building a long term position. (o/t apologies Marine for misreading your name).

Noticed that too Roxi so made my first purchase, thanks for the heads up marnie,

Bushy - the sell at 13p was a very strong sell signal - back then - and shouldn't have been ignored.

Marnie - excellent well thought through as always and should be a great investment here.

Happydays - highlighting the big IF it comes to fruition and IF it all works - there is a downside.

Overall - my guess (wouldn't even call it a prediction) - fall to 5.5p or just below, then rise to 9.5p and end the year at 6.7p (JLP has always been attracted to a something .7p as support or a glass ceiling (don't know why).

o/t JSE looks promising Marnie - a bit unloved, brought down by production difficulties and held down IMO by falling oil prices. A lot of bad news in the sp - oil rising today - looks like the muslims are hell bent on causing trouble in the gulf, production problems look like they are solved, new production coming on stream. All the positives not reflected in the sp although some have been. Going to put a bit in there, probably today. Waiting for JLP to settle back- might miss out but them's the choices we make.

Thanks for sharing your chart knowledge and share tips Marine. The potential profit from the new copper venture is huge (if all goes to plan) and the downtrend can't continue beyond a couple of months as we will hit zero, so it has to go sideways or up in the fairly near future. My caution is due to experience with JLP - with all the projects one would have hoped for enough profit to finance expansion but yet again we have dilution. The worry is that more dilution may follow and someone (UAE based) may build up a sizable share ownership on the cheap and start to exert control. Seen this happen with Chinese investors before. I think I will invest as there's potentially a 50% downside here against a 300% rise over a two year period IMO. Drip feed in is the way.

I would agree with Marnie Clarke that the charts show a share that may be in the bottoming process (not necessarily bottomed, but may have). The share is still technically in a long downtrend and is nowhere near a breakout just yet. My feeling based on charts alone is that the immediate week or two will see a fall in the share price. This is backed up with the real world situation of placed shares coming to the market (possibly) in the next week or two.

Overall there's plenty of jam for tomorrow and JLP should do nicely for the real investor who looks to a minimum 18 month investment period and preferably 3 to 5 years.

I would read gotreals uber optimistic posts alongside bushy's more cautious ones and give then equal weighting. Any chance we could be pleasant and constructive in our dialogue chaps and drop words such as 'cretin' for someone who expresses a different view? Thought not. Happy New Year - thinking of investing here again but not just yet, for clarity. Cue trolls.

I don't own any shares but I am thinking of buying some - just for clarity.

In my experience the sp of JLP always falls to the placing price or even 5% to 10% lower than the placing price.

This time the sp is supported by healthy following of punters/investors and the macro situation of rising metal prices based on USA potential interest rate cuts, so I would think the sp is well supported after the shock drop this morning. If you hold I wouldn't panic sell, the damage has mostly been done. Only 24 hours ago the silly brigade were talking of 120p (no chance) - it would be worth reading marnieclarke's post from a few days ago on the chart situation which takes a broad sensible view of the bottoming process JLP is in. Marnie's view isn't clouded by the placing news which is relatively short term. It looks to me that JLP's continual slide downwards is coming to an end, buying after the placement dust has settled should be a good bet provided we don't spiral downwards into a worldwide recession.

Keep an eye on the metals prices, possible additional money raising and the date of the placing shares coming to market when it is announced. JLP is cheap below 5p (been saying it for years), a buy around 5.3p should come good for the patient. GLA. (Cue trolls).

No motive but to share thoughts gotreal - thanks for your post - see you can be helpful - just need to change the attitude. I'm off - didn't take long did it.

No I'm fit and well, looking after 3 grandkids now. My parents are in their 80's and got out and about as soon as they could visa vis covid. I'm 62 now - started gardening and house renovations for folks who can't manage for themselves since covid - met lot's of great people - not enough days in the week. Coming up to 10 years retired and busier than ever. lol. Going to average in when the charts look a bit better - hope to hear from you again - I don't generally do any (anti)social media but JLP board has been a great source of information with more good people than bad - JLP always comes again - I think this will be my 4th average in and wait event over the years. I also didn't make what I could have from the last rise - out too early. In our defence - the rise in shares was insane - fuelled by insane Governments printing money and giving it away - wonder why we've had an inflation problem????? Lol.

Good posts Chester Green and Bluebelly. Not been in JLP or any minerals for 3 years or so. Been looking at SLP, JLP and Rio Tinto as I look to rebuild a portfolio.

Rio has a PE of two thirds that of JLP and pays about 7% dividend whereas JLP pays none. JLP would need to drop to about 3.7p to get to the same PE as Rio Tinto.

SLP has a PE of less than half that of JLP and pays over 11% dividends compared to JLP's none. JLP would need to fall to around 2.6p to match SLP's PE ratio.

Of course the dividends of those two companies are likely to fall with the continuing pressure on mineral prices. I can see why JLP share price continues to slide as at first glance it looks far too expensive for a non dividend payer at a time when income is king. The charts say it is going lower.

With Chester's help and Bluebelly's addition we can see that a PE of 4 IF all goes more or less to plan, but still not paying a dividend could justify, the current share price. A rerate to around 7 or 8p could be on the cards if investors think the further growth potential of JLP makes up for the lack of dividends paid by the other two companies I mention.

Going to keep JLP on watch (been doing that for almost 30 years) for now - JLP would seem to be a cheap share below 5p (wish I had a tenner for every time I've said that), but would be a sound purchase below 4p and compelling below 3p. Good luck everyone - the SP may get away from me but going to be prepared to pay more to know more. Every faith in Leon - good to see you still here Bluebelly.

All well thanks TC - I thought I was cynical but you are maybe more so than me. I always wonder when JPMorgan will ever say that the stocks are going to go down. If they have bought they say it will go up and if they want to sell they say it will go up so that they can sell to the new punters. The closest we get is that they say they expect volatility which appears to be code for the stocks are going to fall but don't you worry.
The headline to go with the figures was positive - Goldman say economic activity likely bottoming now. Then they say although they expect a 32% drop this quarter then 16% and 13% rises will follow - again a positive spin (it looks like it will regain most of the decline if you look at the raw figures and ignore the effects of compounding) - the bad news is in and lots of good news to come. I wonder if they are putting it out in a positive manner whilst gradually selling as the effects on companies will be catastrophic. Hope you and yours are well TC - have you managed to keep your business ticking along?

GLR looks to have some strength on the charts - not buying myself but good luck to those who have - it's very fickle and easily hyped which is a good reason to buy when it's low and wait for the next hype. In normal market conditions I would buy and sell it every 2 to 3 months.
Goldman Sachs just said they think world economic activity is bottoming right now - which I suppose it doesn't take a genius to work out given the countries tentatively coming out of lockdown - but they do give some figures which I have done a bit of calculation on.
Ist quarter (not Goldman's figures) activity down 6%
2nd quarter activity predicted to be down 32%
3rd quarter activity predicted to be up 16%
4th quarter activity predicted to be up 13%
By compounding these figures we get economic activity down by 36% at the end June compared to the year start. (world economy running at 64% of what it was at year start and about 62% of what was predicted.)
By year end we get world economy at 16% down on start of year activity (84% of the activity we had at year start and 80% approximately of what was expected.)
The whole world economy working at 80% of what analysts predicted at year start and that is after 7 to 8 months of recovery - got to be good for the climate but not so good for dividends and profits.

Best wishes to you and yours Snaffleman - give our thanks to your daughter. Whilst we sit at home and ponder stockmarkets she is out there doing a vital job - marvellous. Yours grandson is lucky to have you - you are vulnerable and he is young and in little danger and here you are worrying about him - a proper grandad. Good luck on your investing come back - let's hope it's soon.

Good luck Snaffleman - hope to bump into you on bb's in the future when it's safe to come back out from behind the sofa, literally and metaphorically.

Agree on markets TC and moneyhawk. JLP looking like a resilient share (caveate: a fall in markets will take everything down) - watch out for MacD crossing over on 3 month or 12 month chart - ok so far chart wise and in normal circumstances it looks set to rise some more but I have a feeling that the Amazon et al news is a bit of a game changer. The rally is based on only 22% of companies that have gotten above their 50 day moving averages - if confidence in those companies dissipates then it don't look too good.
Excellent rise for GLR holders - lets hope some cash is made there and helps JLP to move forward too.
Not in any shares but shorting FTSE 100

Good to see all your views, especially Peter H's alternative view - he is right so far.
(p.s. Peter I have been investing on and off for over 10 years in SLP so I didn't just pop in - until recently there hasn't really been a bb to chat on over there as it was usually just a couple of us posting - I did say it wouldn't see 40p and I was wrong).
Putting my short on the FTSE gradually - time will tell if it was the right move.

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/04/25/vix-crumbles-as-crude-oil-volatility-ebbs-complacency-builds.html
This link says what I have been saying but uses the VIX to say that investors are complacent. Personally I am not sure that the evidence from VIX supports the writer or myself. I am pretty sure that someone who thinks that markets are set to continue rising could use the VIX as evidence that they are also right.
Of more interest might be to hover your curser over the indices at the top of the page which reveals where IG clients are net long or short. 74% are short on Wall Street (stocks) but the balance is long for gold and neutral for the pound against the dollar.

Yes I am ok thanks Bluebelly - hope you are too. The VIX is used a lot in the States and Bloomberg often refer to it. Some commentators on there were saying that the VIX would fall and calm before the next drop - I suppose that makes sense as those who bought hold and new buyers stand on the sidelines. The battle between bulls and bears is going on at the moment but swings in price are small - hence the fall in the VIX.
On the other hand some were saying a month ago to keep out of the market until the VIX returned to normal - that proved wrong in the short term but might come true after the whole bear market is over. Missed out on gains or just not lost anything - I have kept away from posting for a while as I have found it all a bit stressful - watching the stocks defy gravity whilst waiting for reality to set in. Probably see stocks go up again tomorrow but the S and P 500 chart shows the formation of a head and shoulders pattern is nearly complete - but nearly isn't an indicator and so caution is needed. GLA - the JLP run up from 2p to 3p has rewarded the brave - well done to all who bought in.