Member Info for Kalan

Good find Oiltap - like your positive viewpoint at every turn. Car sales in China down 80% in lockdown. Down 40% a month after lockdown - what next? Down 205 down 10% and then. Well the market is pricing in a recovery up to 0% down and then up from there on in i.e. the virus set us back 6 months on the growth path - let's hope the market's are right. What happens if all parts of the market follow suit (which is anticipated) - well then we must have 'got back to normal' - the good old virus just went away and didn't come back - ah, problem - we need a vaccine for that to happen - so the scenario changes - we get -80% then - 40% then - then -20% then -10% and -10% and -10% month on month for a year or three. Most companies will be running at a loss for years or months - this is surely not factored in with the S and P 500 at December 2019 levels already.

Charts - FTSE 100 looks like it's ready to plunge to me and the time is getting closer - we may see some more short term strength (max 5% up) but with a possible 15% to 25% drop in a short time frame - a bit of a recovery but not as strong as the last rally (a chance there positive 14) before a dwindling and sideways malaise for another couple of years - moving to gold when an outright depression is avoided may well be a good plan.
JLP charts - short term we are at an interesting point where direction isn't all that clear - my best guess is that the maximum top is at 3.4p and there may be momentum to get there with start up news but the likelihood is that it is topping out now with 3.2p as the top (if I were betting). The share price is back on trend from the downtrend it was in before the crisis started - in other words it is through the short term 3.5p target that I mentioned a few months ago and has gone onto the possible (although I thought it improbable at the time) 3.0p predicted a couple of months ago. It has of course visited 2p on the way. The share price is where it might have been if the virus had never happened, although about 15% below the point I thought it was going to stop at.
JLP reality on the ground - a bit unsure of where we are. We know production is going to be down for the year on expectations and the palladium and platinum prices have fallen albeit supported by the shutdown and the blow out at a major refinery. JLP production of pgm's should rapidly recover but to what level is hard to tell but I would think close to 100% in a month or two. Chrome price has improved and so chrome should move from a problem to a slight asset. Sable is producing copper (price fallen but not terrible) but zinc will be delayed (price fallen but not delayed) - demand for pgm's should be down in my opinion but there are many other opinions. Production should also be down so we may get a balance - in that case JLP should make a nice profit throughout the coming 18 months to 3 years from pgm's but Sable and Kabwe will depend a lot on base metal demand which is unknown.
Not holding any myself G

JLP don't do guidance Everhopeful.

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2020-04-09/Modern-monetary-theories-fuel-gold-above-1700.html
link to David Erfl on Junior Gold mining - he is after your money as a subscriber but it is worth a read as it offers and opinion - he does call gold down and up - not just one of those who is always bullish on gold. I had a better source with excellent charts but he seems to have stopped posting - will do a bit of looking around.

Hi SaHyena - the gold shares I have mostly been involved with are CEY (Centamin Egypt) and FRES (Fresnilo). FRES has large exposure to silver and gold.
They are not out and out Juniors and have both had production problems, particularly FRES which has put in place a package to improve performance which should bear fruit over the next 6 to 12 months. If you love gold and silver and a recovery share combined then this is the high risk high reward one. I have bought lots of tiddlers in the past but I am out of touch now. So maybe exposure through a Junior Gold miner ETF from VanEck (GDXJ) is the way to go - they do the stock picking and risk is spread in a highly risky sector. Just looked at the chart for GDXJ and the 3 month chart looks like the FTSE but with a bigger rebound which says to me that the ETF and gold juniors will follow the indices down if that's what you believe is going to happen (my preferred scenario). A safer gold bet would be a fund such as Blackrock gold and general which will move with less volatility than the GDXJ.
well done on the shorting TC - expecting a little rise in markets and then the way down may be indicated on the 3 month and 1 week charts - watching for that as it looks imminent - may get in and out on false dawns but will hopefully catch the down draught when it comes. Any chance you could look at the GDXJ chart and indicators to give a second opinion?

I traded silver after the last crisis speedie - it got so I could tune into where it went next - hopefully might be able to do that again. decided not to short the FTSE today when it was 2% down - could have made a bit but will wait for a better opportunity. Trying to get the 1 year and 1 week chart with MacD giving short signals on both - if I can get it then going to go with double my normal bet and on 2x the movement. Reality seems to be dawning - except Trump of course - he has severe psychological problems that bloke.

Gold a bit of a funny one because my instinct is to buy gold as the fiat currencies are being debased by the financial helicopter approach from Governments. So I want to buy but when the market goes down so does the precious metal sector - as I think there is another big leg down then I have been waiting before buying any gold shares. Missed out on some nice rises but I would be selling them at the present time with a view to buying back in after the next big fall (not a given). Gold shares seem to be lagging the gold move IMO which may indicate that folks aren't convinced just yet. Last time gold led the recovery in share prices by 3 months - this time?
Holding physical gold is gold if you are wary of a collapse in society - but not silver as it comes with a heavy tax burden as it is no longer considered to be a currency. ETF gold or silver may be the best route but get ones that are backed by physical metal in a vault - many are just gold on paper and not backed by metal.
If / when gold goes parabolic then the shares in gold companies will do the same but with wings on. Gold mining juniors will outperform everything. Unless we enter a depression in which case hold cash until it's nearly all over.
In summary - I think the next big move will be down in the markets (how can it be up - it makes no sense) and it will take everything - will put 20% into gold miners at that point (after the fall). Still expecting 1600 on S and P 500 worse case and 49% to 57% fall on FTSE top to bottom and $8 silver and $600 platinum or lower. $4000 copper and $9 per barrel oil, although it may stick around $12 with all the intervention going on.
Will post a link to David Erfel on gold - he updates weekly.

It all sounded pessimistic when I read it back Rosewall - but maybe that is the reality - I think the stock market is very close to the end of phase2 - phase 1 massive fall - phase 2 big relief rally - phase 3 another big fall - phase 4 another smaller relief rally - phase 5 - dawdling sideways to downwards in a general malaise until the green shoots finally appear in 3 years or so.
Or it could be v shaped - straight down - we beat the virus - straight up - nice to think so but is it realistic? All the evidence says no to me - but that's just me.

JLP ran up to the bottom end of my predicted band at 2.9p (2.9p to 3.1p predicted).
The GLR news (I believe) is more pertinent to JLP than GLR. It shows that Colin has not applied for a licence as he is reported as doing - instead he has been clearing up the previously hidden problem that there is a problem with previous exploration rights and rights generally pertaining to Kabwe and surrounding area. GLR need to apply for a licence (90 days) and then get cash for development and have a JV with JLP and JLP need to get Sable up and running. GLR are no further forward in fact they are 90 days backwards as a mining licence which was expected is now going to be applied for - we think. JV and granting of licence look better bets now.
For JLP it looks like whatever the mess is surrounding rights at Kabwe has been looked at to some extent - so that is promising.
Holding nothing myself - reality is still not priced into the market - they still don't think we are at the start of a 3 year bear market. IMF saying world economy will grow by 4% in the second half - all economists always get all predictions wrong.

Good for GLR - holders - it's now back where I sold it. A lot of tosh being spouted on GLR bb- just part of mess cleared up - no progress on licence or contractors. Clears way for a JV with JLP - this clears away a problem which Colin never acknowledged existed. Good for holders to see a rise so pleased for them at least.

Looks solid and steady in a grinding up phase -local top could be between 2.8p and 3.1p - caveat - a renewed correction on major markets would take everything down again - but for a safe haven then JLP looks as good as any IMO.
Staying out of all investments for now - I can't afford to lose the cash I used to invest with any more as my debtors are in a much more precarious position now - so short term gambles with small amounts - in and out - are the order of my day GLA.

Italy have ignored calls from business to get back to normal and have extended the lockdown until 3rd May or 4 more weeks.
LA has extended it's lockdown to the middle of May.
New research has shown that without a lockdown 95% of the population would have been infected - so the 500,000 predicted deaths in the UK was not out of the question.
The CEO of Johnson and Johnson was interviewed on Bloomberg - watched it today. He has an arrangement for the USA to produce billions of vaccines. They won't start testing the vaccine on humans, which is one of the most advanced, until September 2020. He hopes to have hundreds of millions of vaccines available by the second quarter of 2021 (a year from now) to send to the areas of the world where the virus is most prevalent at that time. He then hopes to roll the vaccine out across the whole world over the length of 2021. With luck and great work from the scientists we should beat the virus in about a year and a half from now.
Good news from Europe on the 500 billion euro aid package which should offset one third of the economic damage being done.
Also for owners of oil shares there is a deal from Opec+ but (-)mexico - it will be interesting to see how it works and how the USA and Canada can contribute to the cuts - some think it is illegal for the Presidents to shut down companies - oil price should be all over the place in the coming months.

Very positive opinion there O2B@C - let's hope all of that is right and lives and jobs are saved.
The Israeli vaccine could be ready in a 'few weeks' and then it takes 90 days to pass regulatory processes and then it needs to go into production - so it could be on it's way out to the world by August /September time which would be a great result - prior to the Winter in the Northern hemisphere when medical facilities are under most stress - fingers crossed it all works out as that would be about 6 months earlier than previously anticipated.

Good point Bluebelly - emphasises why this person expert thinks the stock markets are ridiculously high. My charts are saying another big leg down is coming. JLP twitching higher but without the conviction of any kind of volume. Staying out of longs or shorts as the long weekend could bring about a 5% to 10% rise or drop on Tuesday as per Speedy.

That's what I noticed this morning Moneyhawk so if I want to go long the FTSE then buy JLP instead as they are almost and exact copy - but I know what I get with JLP. Fundamentals are out of the window - forecasts are gone, P.E ratios meaningless. We all feel good it all goes up - we all feel bad it all goes down.

Been looking at going long the FTSE myself - the signals are a bit mixed - considering buying some JLP for the short term instead of the FTSE so if I get it wrong then at least I end up holding a share with a future as a paper loss. Just needs a nudge upwards - maybe an OPEC +++ agreement will do it for the last run of the rally.
May just wait for the current bullish mood to evaporate and get in for the longer term fall - garden time.

Good to see JLPers getting their board back from the shorters (sold short at 4.6% profit and awaiting new opportunity).
JLP chart confirms what Zac Mir said that 2.4p support is critical and it is being tested now - bounced off 200 day moving average twice. Other indicators mixed but more on the positive side and the upside potential is a maximum of 3.3p IMO - which is about what Zac Mir said. If 2.4p doesn't hold then 2p would be back in play. the charts are quite positive when compared to my gut instinct that all share are going to be heading South again soon. The charts should be relied upon more than my gut instinct that's for sure.

1.5% up at the close so left it to see how things go - may end up bailing - agree that short of 6,000 would be an excellent place to go short. JLP doing better than I expected from 2p and Zac Mir's post is positive - so staying above 2.4p opens up potential - GLA holders.

I'm with you Rosewall - the Dow Jones futures are showing it 20% down since the start of the crisis. For it to go higher we would be back in a bull market - that's a 10% drop in annual GDP and we are in a bull market - looks like bull to me - put my short on and putting my shorts on - garden beckons. Probably be bailing on both in the next couple of hours lol.

Safety first - UK FTSE up 2% at mo but Germany up 4% and so are USA futures - so likely to see a bit more strengthening in FTSE (sold into the dip - because it was a short).

Well it's no use sitting here saying they are all wrong and betting against the herd so my short x2 on the FTSE which was down 7% this morning has just been closed at down 3.6%. Everything on Bloomberg is positive this morning and my bet that the charts were turning was premature - will wait for confirmation and re-open the short because I am convinced the financial folk are living in a bubble. Most of us are going to get the virus or get the vaccine whichever one comes to us first. How much would they have knocked off the major markets if we had just had an 80% reduction in flights? At least 10%. how much would they knock off for China GDP going from +5% to -3%? Another 10% and so on and so on. I suppose they will say that the pump priming of the finances would have added 10% to 20%. Everyone has an opinion and someone will get it right and become a guru for the next 10 years until the next crisis.