Member Info for Kalan

Dorfan - Bushy knows the potential here and he will be buying - he just has a doomsday scenario in mind and wants the share price to reflect this scenario before he buys. He won't lose money with his approach but will he make any waiting for a price that never comes. In that way he's in the same position as me.

Excellent summary Seisnav - I want to be in by the end of March for all those reasons.

I believe JLP is approaching a point of inflexion. There is no doubt that JLP share price is still in a downtrend and has been for 3 years and shows no immediate signs of breaking out of that downtrend. However, it must do at some point before it reaches zero. The downtrend has been in place due to the dramatic fall from silly heights in pgm prices the effect of which obviously is amplified in profits more than in revenue.

We are looking for a catalyst for the change in direction. All of the news of new ventures and expansions has had a localised effect which has not lasted. Leon's strategy is clear - pgm's will wipe their faces (see Bargain Hunt), chrome will self finance expansion and then provide capital for further projects. Roan will bring profits attributable to shareholders and in most of our opinions will be the catalyst for change in the share price. The new massive copper project and future as yet unarranged projects will ratchet up shareholder value.

Why then are the potential new investors not flocking to JLP? Firstly, the well established downtrend, the trend is your friend but no trend lasts forever (see investor cliches). Secondly, the path to Roan production is uncertain in three ways: timeframe; sourcing of manufactured parts; certainty of results being positive after the cash is spent.

When will these Roan barriers be resolved completely? I would suggest some time in April or May. In Leon's Sunday Roast interview he states that he expects Roan to "certainly" be up and running at an increased capacity in April. Should we take him at his word? Will there be slippage? Will it work?

Meanwhile the share price has to negotiate the lull of February and probably most of March.

The risk of being in is a slow drift down (this is a reality right now as it has been for 3 years) and /or some setback news.

The risk of being out is that news of a positive nature could cause a spike.

My view is that each of us have a price to buy and a price to sell and a timeframe to operate in. I know what mine are and the time for buying is getting closer, if I miss out on a spike (I have already once in the past few months of watching) I just need to wait for it to drift back down again. Waiting for signs of a change in share price direction which means I won't get in at the bottom and I need to remember to average in. GLA- as Seisnav points out there's lots to like here.

Is it antocigasta?

Thanks NoExcuses - will do.

Calm down gotreal- it's not worth it, you're going to bust a blood vessel. I'm sure you are confident in your knowledge and your investment. Sit back, relax and smile knowingly when all of Bushy's neigh saying comes to nothing. If he winds you up it's a sign he's winning.

Chrome in the short term it is very simple - no calculations needed. All chrome profits are being reinvested in chrome expansion. Chrome has zero affect on cash flow in the short term. 6 months down the line is different.

Roan is also in need of cash for manufacture locally/import but is throwing off some cash - broadly neutral as far as cash flow is concerned?

PGM's a bit of profit there which should help cash flow.

The brand new copper venture needs capital - is this all in place with the UAE partners? - This is the fundamental question that I would like to know the answer to. People on here may know the answer and if they would like to share, I for one would be grateful.

18 months from here - chrome throwing off profits, Roan throwing off profits, PGM's making some profit, the new copper project starting to throw off profits.

Love him (nobody in that camp?) or hate him Bushy is asking the right question in regards to cash flow, given JLP's propensity for massive dilution. Listen to the positive and the negative and give them equal weight. We are more or less at the last placing price (I did predict this - it wasn't rocket science) and am sticking with 6.7p year end which is a massive 22% profit from here. Tempted but sitting on my hands until we know more.

I've read lots of reports by Malcy and I'm not a fan. (His VOG posts were diabolical). Malcy knows far less than the best informed investors on these chat boards on any particular share that he comments on. He's very good at getting wined and dined by CEO's though. Check his girth.

All looking good here, barring an unexpected event, which is true for most AIM shares. Going to hold for a re-rate and may even add as we get closer to the gas coming online. Tried to break the 28p short term resistance today. We watch and wait without too much of a sweat here.

Good discussion today. Thanks for all contributions, valuable information shared.

All seem to be agreed that JLP need Roan working at full tilt to either justify the current price or warrant a re-rate depending on your view. Are we expecting Roan at full tilt at the end of March, April or May depending manufacturing of parts with news of increased production to confirm expectations (or in Bushy's case, quash concerns) at the end of April, May or June?

Cheers Bushy. I'm assuming that JLP must be reasonably close based on the metrics you specify, otherwise you wouldn't be interested here. I note you predicted 2.8p, which I thought might be a little tongue in cheek or is this the price that meets your criteria?

I like Spam. My mum used to do Spam fritters. Processed meat in batter which has soaked up more hot fat, lovely. Can't think why we council estate kids don't live very long. Lol.

I think we agree there Bushy - rock bottom price ("buy when others are fearful", John Templeton I think) and hold for the potential to be realised. I think that's what you meant?

Yesterday - massive negative feel to the board. Today massive positive feel.

Trying to keep a balanced view, if possible.

Good news today has arrested a potential free fall in the sp. 28p looks like a significant barrier for the sp to break over the coming days. Above 28p and 40p, 93p, £1.20 etc are all possible outcomes. For the time being though the trend is still down, until 28p is broken. Could happen any time.

For clarity, I hold some bought at 32p and some at 27p. Might add some more if the sp goes up above 28p.

"Doing some quick sums based on Q1 production update copper margin is c@$3500 per tonne, Chrome margin $10 per tonne and PGM $156 per oz. So very rough calculation. Copper margin >$2 million per month going _$3.5 million by April. Chrome margin $1.3 million per month and PGM ONLY $0.5million per month. Surely the last metal the share price should be tagged to is PGM?"

You are spot on Everopeful. The market is pricing JLP on pgm's (see Marineclarke's charts). At some point in the future the sp will reflect the other metals but for the time being the profits from copper are as clear as mud in theory and unproven in reality. That's why we are here - we are ever hopeful and risk our cash on it all coming to fruition, the seasoned professional investors are much wiser and can afford to wait as it's their money that will move the sp. We have to be in before them and wait and hope. Still not bought any myself but I can see the potential if you buy at the right price (I'm not very good at that bit by the way). In short, if the share price did reflect the copper potential, then there would be no point in us being invested.

Northernshark and dorfan I would agree with your comments from the perspective of a long term holder. I was looking at it from the short term view of the sp and how less committed shareholders would react. If you are holding then the delays will all be meaningless (placings apart) in 9 to 18 months time. For those wanting to buy for the long term or wanting to add then timing is, as usual of the essence and the past month hasn't been the time to add or buy in IMO.

Positives - loads of copper to come.

- pgm steady income.

- chrome increasing and making good profits with further expansion to come.

Negatives - Roan copper will be months away at the increased production. The local electrical manufacture, if it happens,

is just an emergency provision.

- Chrome profit is only going to cover chrome expansion in the near term.

- pgms limited to JLPs own feedstock and profits limited as a result.

No surprise that the sp has dropped on this update as the positives were known and the negatives not known, although some suspected. (Read the negatives as well as the positives when people post and give them equal weighting).

The magnet of 5.5p is drawing the sp, these things usually get overdone and overshoot so sub 5.5p could be on the cards, my amateur charting says so. But I am an amateur. With the financial commitments and lower than anticipated income a placing may be on the cards. But finance is available for the new copper project (I'm not sure of the precise details of the 50 million funding required).

All in all, I continue to watch and sit on my hands. A bit more wait and see.

Very droll comment Gotreal, made me chuckle. I might even get to like you? I have sympathy as it must be gutting to average in at 3p ish and see a 7 bagger unfold and then watch it disappear gradually, slowly and agonisingly. I sincerely hope you took a fair chunk of profits near the top and that the sp gets back up there over the next couple of years.

Maintaining my year end prediction of 6.7p (which now looks optimistic - suddenly I'm a ramper), short term choppy waters to negotiate. GLA.

"Why... is it relevant to you Butterball?? Do you own any stock??"

Excellent tactic - the sp will only go up if new buyers come in, yet gotreal thinks that possible new investors need vitriol to encourage them to buy - genius.

No need to apologise Marine. My decision and my risk. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Onwards and upwards. Hopefully.

Typical AIM entry for me. Did my research following Marineclarkes tip. Decided to feed money in when the middle east situation caused oil to lift. Bought at 37p. Two days later I'm 30% down. Re- assessed after the rns and shre price fall and thought the investment case is more compelling not less. Doubled up my holding today at 27p. So need a 15% rise to get back to break even i.e. 32p. As I say typical entry. Not going to buy any more unless it drops significantly. Happy to hold for a rerate at some point in the next couple of years. Hhopefully this year of course. GLA.

Your right 3 cardbrag. The world would have to go into a depression for that to happen. I know it's annoying to hear the same person repeatedly knocking the share but it is good that someone makes us feel a little cautious when committing money on AIM by mentioning that there is a downside even if it is exagrated. The sp halved here and then halved again. It's not impossible for it to halve yet again, even ifbit is highly improbable. Remember FRR, it dropped 99% and folks were still talking it up the day it went to 0p.

JLP is moving in tandem approximately to the price of pgms. See graphs posted by others in the past couple of weeks. Positive ( gotreal et al) and negative ( bushy) comments can marginally affect the sp temporarily if a herd following accrues in the share. It is small and short of duration.

The sp of JLP, like the price of pgms continues in a downward trend. A stark starringlybobvious trend. There are no signs of a breakout. Not a higher low or a higher high. Not a trendline broken. Barely a positive indicator to be found. In the real world the company makes progress but producing more is in the future whilst the revenue prr ounce or tonne from production has been falling in the recentbpast and in the present.

Te recent placing acts as an magnet. It is drawing the sp back down in the absence of short term news. IF the sp falls below the placing price, then it will act as a magnet in a positive way.

At the risk of being repetetive. I've been saying these things for 10 years or so now with JLP.

JLP is cheap under 5p.

Posterson here have no real affect on the sp.

Posters on here can cause individual investors to lose money and by far the most damage done to the wealth of others is by those who continuously post positive posts. GLA. I still don't own any JLP just for clarity. I will buy at the right price if it comes along. My post won't make it come along.