Member Info for Kalan

Well WHI have given almost the exact same figures for the share price as myself.

They don't give a bottom (whereas I said it would drop to the placing price and probably lower).

They don't give a year end price (my prediction is 6.7p).

They say 9.9p ( I said I'd be happy with 9.5p in 12 to 18 months time)

They say 16p ish when all is de-risked (I said 15p).

I hope that puts things in context - I'm sure some think I'm a negative poster on JLP because I'm not yet invested. My point is that I believe I am being objective and realistic based on what we know. Most posters on all boards are uber positive and the reasoned voice gets labelled as negative.

Example - someone posts that copper has exceeded $8600. In the following couple of weeks copper drops down and down to $8200 ish - no comments from anyone. Today copper hits $8500+ and straight away it's posted as a positive (also incorrectly stating it's the highest it's been in months).

There are some excellent posters on this board, always have been, WHI seem to be saying things are looking positive in the medium term and let's lets keep it real (not gotreal).

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one SeisNav. The specific reason for the placing was for the new project - it says so in the placing blurb. So you are right. The specific amounts they allocated came to $12.2 million. They then raised over $16 million. The only item left on the list of destinations for the placing money was for general working capital. In other words they took the opportunity to bag another $4 million through dilution. My take is that this was necessary because they are spending faster than they are getting it in and it will tide them over to Roan increased production. So I may be right. Colin Bird would always have raised as much capital as possible, just in case, while the opportunity was there, so maybe Leon is just following his old bosses way of doing things and JLP don't need the extra $4 million for cash flow. Hmm - we wait to see.

Spot on with the last two posts. Roan delivery is crucial to JLP cash flow in the short term. Chrome profits going to chrome expansion. PGM's financing the overheads maybe. Roan can deliver cash for the balance sheet. Not expecting it this quarter. If someone could guarantee Roan up and running by end of April and at full production by end of May I would have invested by now on the gamble that no further cash will be required. The last placing should see Roan through to production IF timelines are met or missed by a fairly short time frame. We wait and see.

I would agree with all that seisnav.

I look at the charts to tell me what people have been doing and are doing now as an entry or exit aid. They can't predict the future. It looks like someone has decided to put say £150,000 into JLP at 5p+. The charts couldn't have predicted that but will tell us the underlying sentiment in the way others react.

The good news on the Abu Dhabi partnership is that the costs are covered as you say. It reduces the profits to around 35% but derisks the whole project. We can't have it all.

Saw that on TV this morning seisnav. It's good that pgm's are being taken out of the market. On the flip side if pgm's recover I assume they can relatively quickly bring supplies back to the market (say 6 months). Overall I think pgm's will be range bound, say $700 to $1100. The decision by Amplats shows that they see no short to medium term pgm recovery, as it's a costly business to shut down and maintain mining capacity.

Shows Leon has the strategy right by expanding chrome and copper. Chrome will show a profit and it's earmarked for chrome expansion, so the immediate profit disappears but leads to more profits later on. This bit from the RNS "For general working capital purposes" leads me to think the March update won't reveal much in the way of profits. No news on copper of any note since the placing but buyers are willing to pay between 5p and 5.5p on the potential. Good news for all holders. On the charts front - a bit better news. 1 year MacD is flirting with going positive and Bolinger bands (1 week) indicates a move up or down is imminent (in the next day or two). It could be at 5p or 6p this time next week, previously all indicators were down for certain. All based on my amateur charting. GLA - still don't hold any. Oh and there is a case to be made that 4.9p was a higher bottom and that 4.6p won't be re-visited. It's just and argument though and JLP's long term downtrend is far from broken just yet. I'm sure it will be though if all goes to plan.

Hi Mikie - no I'm not invested yet. JLP has been my favourite share for 20 years and I'm a big fan of Leon's technical abilities having invested in Braemore resources and JLP when the takeover took place. His knowledge derived from the conroast process which was developed with Mintek support is second to none IMO. I want to invest but I am cautious of the quiet times with JLP - it tends to slide in terms of the share price when nothing is being said and there is nothing to say until the end of March. The charts still show a downtrend. Bushy's disaster price for everything going wrong, I believe is 2.8p. I have taken his criteria and applied them (again roughly) to the existing situation and I came up with 4.2p. the charts would look a lot better with a double bottom in at 4.6p and I could invest with a lot more confidence. Waiting for some sort of confirmation of a change of direction in the charts, it looks more promising but nothing confirming a change of direction yet and I'm prepared to miss out and wait for a pullback to get in if necessary.

Mikiesunday: "Using your figures Kalan 35% is 1400 per tonne. Nearly 50% more!"

I think you missed the $ sign turning into pounds on the other side of the = sign Mikie.

Admittedly it is £1100 and not £1000 but I was approximating so rounded the number, again, admittedly in a negative way as I am cautious when investing rather than uber optimistic (from experience). Hope that helps.

I envy your enthusiasm Roxi - whatever happens it's always positive. A good way to live. Personally I don't have a clue if this is positive or not because we know nothing on details. It's a case of wait and see and what will be will be- as you said if you're in you're in - nothing can be done. It's quite relaxing in a way - there your positivity is catching. Have a nice day.

C.a. 35% of profit between $4,000 and $ 8000 (cost to selling price per tonne) = approx £1000 per tonne. Guidance average 30,000 tonnes per annum is 30 million. pe ratio of 10 gives a valuation of £300 million. Double the current company valuation at 5p per share, so 10p per share. Add on chrome and pgms and Roan = maybe 15p per share.

Of course if copper goes to $12000 and pgm's recover or chrome increases. We can add to that valuation. On the other hand prices of metals can fall and things can go wrong and / or cash flow can needs can dilute.

JLP is cheep under 5p. always said so. The increased prospects have been balanced by increased shares over the years. We end up back at the same place after each cycle.

hi edzi - as i understand it market makers don't hold shares - they square their books each day. they do move the market as they are looking for as much trade as possible. they held it between 4.9p and 5p for a while as a decent amount of trades went through. when that petered out, they decided to move it upwards, to lure in the investors with fomo, which creates more trades. now that has run it's course and they are dropping it to shake out the ones who are fearful and tempt in the ones that are greedy. their job is to create a market, they don't care if it's buying at 4.9p and selling at 5p or buying at 19.5p and selling at 20p - the gap between the two is what they try to manipulate.

p.s. back of a *** packet - the new big copper project (assuming the fall in copper prices that has been happening over the past week comes to an end) should be worth about £30 million profit per annum to jlp which with a pe of around say 10p should warrant a 10p price tag for the shares. chrome and pgms are worth a couple of p and roan maybe a couple more. so i think the sp currently has 2p for pgms and chrome, 2p on hope of roan all being ok and just 1p for the new project. bottom line i can't really see the sp dropping below 4.2p and unlikely to fall below 4.6p - but there again wtfdik. gla.

Leon 23rd January in operations update: ' Roan will continue to operate at approximately 50% of full capacity while an alternative solution is being pursued to source the electrical components which includes the option to locally manufacture the components. A 9 weeks delay is expected to the upgrade of the Roan project.'

9 weeks from 23rd January gives us end of March. I would like to see an update where a local manufacturer has been found and an order placed.

Overall a positive update - very welcome but we need to read without our rose tinted glasses on. Good discussion today - a lot less vitriol - JLP has a great future.

That's the fudge. Once installed. The mechanics are manufactured, the electronics aren't mentioned. The electronics are part of the installation and the timescale for their manufacture is 8 weeks (according to Leon). Which ties in with the end of March.

Leon just does not re-iterate the ongoing problem of the electronic components in this upbeat update. He just gives a timeframe.

I may be wrong - maybe Amazon had delivered the electronic components to the local post office a couple of weeks ago and Leon had been to the wrong post office to pick them up. Suddenly they've got the delivery now and fitted them to the manufactured module. It could have happened - sorry that's my sarcastic childish sense of humour kicking in Sumoskier. In short, if the electronic component issue had been resolved he would have been shouting it - surely.

Sorry Seisnav if my post wound you up. I thought I was quite positive. More copper and better communication.

The electrical component manufacture/delivery isn't addressed in the rns on second reading. It is fudged. The time scale of end of March was exactly where I expected given an 8 week delay. The rns does not say we got hold of the parts unexpectedly out of the blue and have used them. The rns says manufacture of the module is complete, where does it say it's fully running and tested? Unless explicitly told otherwise, the situation is unchanged and is as follows:

The module is manufactured and bolted together. It needs painting. It needs to be dismantled. It needs to be shipped. It needs to be re-assembled. The electrical components need to be manufactured locally or be delivered from wherever they were coming from. The electrical components need to be fitted and tested to the manufactured module. Commissioning needs to be undertaken and then ramp up to nameplate tonnages. The end of March is ambitious, but Leon says it's on track. From experience, if someone offered a definite date for commissioning at the end of April I would snatch their hands off. Nothing has changed here except Leon listening to shareholders (tick - well done Dorfan et al) and the anomaly offers better profits at some time in the future (tick).

Positives:

Leon has seen the need to punctuate the communication vacuum between the placing and operations update and the end of March - see he is human.

The anomaly identified presents more copper at profitable grades for Sable.

Negatives: No defined solution to the components to be manufactured for Roan explained (unless my scan of the rns was too brief t discern it - prepared to stand corrected.

Overall a fairly neutral little new to see here update but shows Leon is aware of investor sentiment at least and the extra copper anomaly will pay back in time.

Nice one Leon.

For clarity - still not invested.

It looks like Leon has the right strategy moving JLP to copper production.

The CEO of Tharissa basically says that palladium is in structural oversupply and the other pgms are reliant on hydrogen technology taking off in order to make new investments worthwhile. The current interest rate environment is prohibitively expensive and they are slowing down their new project until interest rates fall and then hoping hydrogen takes off. Copper is needed wherever vehicles go. Having a good mix of metals that can be turned on and off whilst majoring on copper has been a wise plan. It makes JLP nimble compared to others. Nice little rally today in JLP price.

I think you are right there Bluebelly. Higher chrome and pgm prices will help JLP but copper tonnage at low costs in a rising copper market will dwarf chrome and pgm's. A few obstacles to get over as always with JLP as you well know. Just sitting in the doldrums for now. On EV's they can't be the answer but can be part of the pollution solution. I don't think I will ever own one. Hope you and yours are fit and healthy.

I'm interested heroic. I've been a shareholder in JLP on and off for 20 years roughly. Also owned Braemore Resources which were taken over by JLP for the Conroast Technology. ( apologies if spelling incorrect). Interested in buying in again at the right price. Unfortunately, when I looked in the share price was being ramped. I joined in with the sharecprice predictions when it was 6.7p and predicted it would drop to the placing price or lower before getting back to 6.7p by year end. Why post? To add balance to a ramping board. When I buy I'll continue to post occasionally both positive and negative, hopes and concerns. As usual the rampers will call me a deramper if I post anything but positivity ( awfull use of the English language). Luckilly this won't put me off giving what I think is a balanced view of the share. I looked at SLP very recently and thought I'd definitely sell if I owned any. Didn't post that on the SLP board becsuse I'm not interested in investing there any time soon. Lots of excellent posters on here sharing their knowledge. It's good to engage and learn from each other. A grown up discussion benefits us all. Going to look at the charts when I get home. Too messybon the phone to see if there's any indications there. Also worth looking for an rns in next day or two. Plenty of previous on AIM of leaky companies with bad news. Not expecting bad news but worth being orroared just in case.

Citi have downgraded their platinum and palladium predictions firvthe next 3 months. SLP well down too and one or two others but not to same extent. Related?

Was looking at SLP this morning and thought it looks like a share with quite a way to fall.58p down to somewhere in the 25p to 40p region. The reason I mention it is JLP has dropped 7.8% and SLP 5.6% so the fall looks like it's to do with pgm's??? However, copper has fallen a couple of % over the past 3 days as well. Is it a general commodity malaise? Alternatively, China being in a deflationary position could also be affecting sentiment.

It may be none of these, as the 20 day moving average crossed the 50 day moving average decisively in the past 2 days and chartists would bail on that signal. Could be all or none of the above. lets hope it bottoms quickly for all holders.

The share price targets from these institutions are as reliable as Malcy i.e. not at all.