Member Info for johnpwh

I do not think that there is any chance of a continuing dividend beyond the third special. I doubt there will be a true regular dividend until Tavsan is established and producing with the JV debt for the plant repaid. I see that as 2025 at the earliest, unless there is a sharp increase in Price of Gold meaning a greater net income from Red Rabbit (as is).
In fairness the Directors have never implied there is anything certain beyond the Special Dividend which was specifically to distribute a proportion of the payments from Ozaltin for their knocked down asset grab.
Dr S really has to improve his performance here, without it AAU is just going to continue to drift along with a few drill results here and a few more there. When the share price reached 4.5p I thought that was the bottom. And now we look firmly established at less than 4p, often nearer 3.5p, not really looking like it has the legs to climb over.
Personally I have decided not to reinvest the dividend, indeed to do so might be a bad idea as the price may spike upwards due to there being more than the usual 10 or so daily deals, only to sink again in the days afterwards when apathy returns!

Yep. Business as usual is resumed (unsmiley face)

Yes, tongue very much in cheek!

At last, as expected (I think 2020 the production estimate was 19th and 2021 was 15th).
Figure is as I think we all expected (deteriorating grades but 2 mills), 25k Au. Add in a margin so they can claim yet another year exceeding expectations (am I getting cynical?), so I'm going for 26,500oz full year.
Of course in 2023 we will have Tavsan in production for nearly the full year.......

levi, willowman, I kind of hate to agree with you on this occasion but I do. The last presentation in December was re-assuring (and misleading when it comes to timescales on Tavsan, Salinbas and (I think) the IPO) but I didn't like the presentation.
Dr.S, who I long had upmost respect for came across as a rather smug and know-it-all, and as for interspersing the material with mocking cartoons......

Yep levi, that's how a few seem to be feeling.
It feels, maybe unfairly (because we don't have sufficient information to judge), that our BOD treat this as a well paid part time job - even worse a job that can be done by WFH on opposite sides of the world! AAU with attitude? Maybe, though possibly not the attitude we assumed they meant.
Sentiment can be judged by this and the 'other' board. This board is quite quiet, especially these days, but I prefer it as the other one always seemed populated by overenthusiastic rampers geeing each other on. But for a few days they have been quieter than us, and the mood seems increasingly critical.
Sad situation. AAU is either one of AIMs best kept secrets or something we should now be getting concerned about.

Yes Levi. I get the feeling that LTHs are going to start walking soon

Hi mjh
Only just saw your reply! Yes, I'm happy to just let this sit around in the background. Its obviously dropped a few pence in line with the overall markets but effectively steady. Its nice to have a share I don't feel I have to monitor

Daisy
Pragmatism will prevail. It will have to. What has happened in Ukraine sickens me. A few days ago Zelensky was far more demanding than he appeared yesterday when he pretty much dismissed NATO membership. Russia isn't some tin pot state, it has enough warheads to effectively destroy earth. Sadly that tempers negotiations somewhat. I have no idea what will happen, realistically no one posting here or elsewhere does.

I see your reasoning but wonder what would happen if relaxation of the sanctions was a condition of a cease fire? The West has refused (rightly in my view) to impose a no fly zone, would it be seen as further endangering the the lives of Ukrainians by standing in the way of a resolution regarding re-establishing trade? I think it likely that there would be some relaxation of sanctions as a motivation for Putin to back down, but behind the scenes work would be done to reduce dependency on Russian fossil fuels etc. in the medium term

Hmmm. Going for the record. A complete calendar month with telling shareholders a single thing despite knowing that they are expectant. We are just an irritation for them.

Tell you what rbrand, if you think so much of Putin, so little of the West and their fictitious reporting, and think Ukraine will be a nice place once it emerges undamaged into being a puppet state of the Kremlin then I have a suggestion. Why don't you buy a one way ticket to Poland, scoot across the border and go and live in one of the major Ukrainian cities that you clearly think are unscathed.
Oh, word of advice before you go. Take some water, a few Kit kats and some blankets with you - you know, just in case you are wrong

Pdub, beginerman
Valuable contributions by both. In total agreement with Pdub but as beginerman says there will be political pressure to reduce dependence on Russian oil (irrespective of how the current awful situation in Ukraine resolves, ie even if Russia totally backed away which seems unlikely) and also to reduce energy costs for the public. That can only mean decisions by Governments worldwide regarding increased fossil fuel supply that would not have been considered only 6 months ago. By that I don't imply a relaxation of the pressure for green alternatives, and with VRFBs very attractive for mass storage in view of (lack of) flammability, pressured Lithium supply, efficiency and cost I think BMN has a very bright future provided that the BOD ensure that they push the message.

Yep! Business as usual

ps. What exactly does Ozaltin bring to this party now that they have walked off with 53% of the Turkish assets for a relative pittance? Do they do anything whatsoever except control the JV and rake in millions from RR? And people wonder why I was against this from Day 1

Maybe the IPO wont happen and AAU take full control? That is possibly a good use of money.
Re the proceeds that willowman refers to. I have a memory of half the net proceeds being pledged as dividend so maybe that implies that costs and tax were far higher than we all thought. The amount received for the assets given up is very low on an NPV basis, especially against rising PoG and PoS which was happening before the deal was finalised - I certainly voted against it but sadly few did because the BOD recommended, That recommendation in turn adds weight to willowmans view that the deal appears to have been political. Does that mean investing in Turkey any better than Africa?

You really think Putin would ever respect a neutral Ukraine? I doubt Zelensky would. Putin doesn't care what the world thinks of him, that much is obvious. Only the removal of Putin will give Ukraine long term security and give Russians teh chance to be reintegrated.

jamrock
Why is this good news? What you seem to be saying is that Putins bullying and murder of civilians will result in a deterioration of Ukraines long term ability to stand as an independent country and therefore its future.
Good news for everyone - are you including 44 million Ukrainians in that statement? Or are you just concerned for your Hyve shares?

Wayne, Anacott
Will believe it when I see it but I really hope so. Stuff the stock market, adults and children are being hit by rockets in Europe due to that bastard Putin

Been pondering myself. I don't think anyone can realistically predict anything here, especially with a very intelligent but nonetheless psychopathic dictator in charge in Russia. Clearly UK authorities could intervene as they announce more sanctions virtually daily. The asset could be nationalised by Russia in retaliation making POG worthless. The only conclusion I can reach is that this is a very good or very good investment at the moment. Whether morally I feel justified in such an investment is quite another matter.