Member Info for johnpwh

No, not round long, didn't find it till they messed up iii. I didn't post there but did read contibuters, my brain wont cope with more than one board at a time

Ha ha. Not often you lot having a pop at each other makes me laugh but that thumbs up comment did!

I agree that many PIs are probably looking at 75-80p, but surely this share is big enough (market cap) for individual PIs strategies to be irrelevant to SP movements? One ting I rarely see mentioned is the possible SP effect of transferring away from AIM to a senior market - once there wont the share be more attractive to institutional investors?

Well Escargot (or do you prefer Snail??) I plan to top slice at around 80p (or at least set a strict stop loss at that level) on 50% of the shares I hold and then run the other 'free' shares to the ultimate conclusion - good or bad. I may get the Porsche, I may not. I prefer dark grey or blue metallic, but haven't decided on the leather yet...………….

Escargot
Your opinion is as valid as anyone elses, and the scenario you paint is as likely as any others presented here.
I myself traded this share quite profitably until the data room opened and the SP grew towards 60p and many expected a nailed on farm in - at that point I went long and kept buying (expensively) expecting a nice little return. Then watched it sink to te mid 20s. Which hurt!
No one knows, the result for me could be the shiny new Porsche or maybe an elderly Lada!
Again I think, with successful EPS, it is the current expectation of a bid from BP or maybe Total(?). But what if that doesn't happen, as you suggest. I don't have a clue!
But I am reasonably confident of a good outcome provided POO behaves. And that may depend on Trump behaving which is far more random

I agree that by the time the AM successfully completes trials, leaves Dubai, visits Rotterdam, gets to Rona Ridge, hooks up and shows the first pint of the black stuff the SP will have risen. How much I don't know. But as in similar situations I have witnessed 'the journey may be better than the arrival'. The SP may well stagnate or even decline once the oil is flowing at least until the reservoir is proven to 'behave' or until successful wells are drilled on the other prospects. My average is around 35p, I would like to do the classic sell half, run half (at zero cost) but will just have to wait and see

SXX-Pound-Party
I mean if the whole concept of fractured basement WOS is disproved. You are effectively arguing that the SP is currently at its lowest possible level, and the only way from here is up. That is not the case. With no oil yet produced, logically the current SP lies between that relevant to a successful outcome, and that where there are significant (or insurmountable) problems to successful exploitation.
I personally believe that the EPS will be successful, which is why (if I'm honest) I have committed to much to this share. So fingers and toes crossed

p.s. Would have been good to have had a company statement about this today

Seriously for a second, who picks up the bill? The loony Romanian wont have 4 million sitting in the Skipton BS to meet it. I googled Fenton, the contractor he was employed by, and they seem a small operation so again presumably wont be able to meet the cost without declaring themselves bankrupt (which ends their liability). Which leaves 2 possibilities in my mind a) Insurance, but would that cover risks of wilful damage by nutty East Europeans actually working on the site or b) a £4m hit on MCS profits. Why do I suspect that the contractor will fold, insurance will say 'policy exclusion' and therefore b) will apply?

I was surprised to read this. Is it normal to give such an incentive? Does he own the shares as an outright gift or are they loaned while e is in office?

Thanks for the link. he seems to think fireworks in the first few months, maybe a move by BP or Total once flow is proven.

Personally I don't know what to think, other than relatively soon it will be massively above or significantly below what it is today.

Out of interest what do people make of Malcy?

Like most I was mildly amused by the story today of a Romanian builder going a bit bonkers with a JCB. All because he felt he was due unpaid wages at a new development of 5 bungalows in Hertfordshire. He did a reported £4m of damage.
Mildly amused that is until I heard who the owners of the nearly finished properties are.
Need a clue...…………….?? Go on, guess!!

In fact a mock purchase has just produced a offer of 1.185p ! Worrying indeed

I agree it contributes but I suspect the Turkey connection is having far more dominant an effect

Thanks for that, and responding so quickly. I see the logic. Life is never smooth is it?

Guessing the SP weakness is a gut reaction to the Turkish market/currency turmoils? Turkey is hardly a rogue state and the commodity produced is priced in $. Could even argue that a significant proportion of expenses are in local currency hence costs are falling? Is my logic right?

I have read recently that peak oil consumption is still over a decade away, so demand will still be rampant probably long after I have popped my clogs. So the only problem with 'too much oil' is presumably the maximum rate which the reservoir(s) will allow extraction? And that is, I believe, what 2019 is all about - understanding Lancaster (and hence by extrapolation) the other Rona ridge assets which are ostensibly thought to be similar structures.

O dear. just as it seemed to be going so well it gets tipped by Motley Fool. Kiss of death in my experience!

Thanks VanVan for the advice. I am now a twitterer. Or tweeter. Whatever! I wont be following Musk or Trump though!
The latest photos posted there are interesting

I am considering joining twitter just to get the Ariana tweets! I always resist such tings but sounds necessary