Member Info for johnpwh

Ifonly
Based on some of the more optimistic predictions seen on this board!

Nigwit
You wrote 'I understand that some posters have more of an appetite for risk than me and that they believe that Hurricane could have held on to more of the assets but I don’t so I’m a happy investor again and I shall continue to hold with more confidence than for a long time knowing that good sense has prevailed'.
That really does sum up how I feel. And probably many others so thank you. Maybe now I wont make a million from my shares as I hoped, but I do feel less nervous about remaining invested, without having o worry so much that one day it may go horribly wrong

Just come in and scanned about 230 posts, Malcys stuff, the presentation and no doubt some things I have already forgotten. I'm ready for bed now
I cant pretend to have the in depth knowledge of many of you, but I am a (reasonably intelligent I hope though some will disagree) shareholder and get the view that this probably is a good deal. To come to that conclusion I am looking at a broader picture not the minutiae that some of you are able to.
From my knowledge Hurricane is a small company with few employees. Maybe not 2 men and a dog but fairly close. If they are going to exploit the (hopefully) vast assets that we (think they) have, within a reasonable time frame then they need help. And that help will not be charitable, be it from Spirit or BP. And if you think Spirit drove a hard bargain then one with the like of BP would certainly have squeezed Dr Ts tender bits. They wont do it for pence, they will do it for big bucks. That's the price, and HUR has to pay it.
At the end of the day I have shares and have presumably most on this board do too. But none of us have anything like as many as Dr T. So if this deal is as bad as some would like to believe then why would he accept it - for most of us HUR is part of a portfolio of share, wheras I'm sure Dr T has most of his eggs in this particular basket.
My shares are averaging at around 40p. I am looking for a nice tickle, certainly better than the 2% I can get on deposit. £1? £2? Great. Do I expect £5? No. So many here seem to have a deluded idea that this company could miraculously be developed by the 2 men (and a dog) team, to wholly own vast quantities of top notch oil in a reasonably short time frame. In my view that just could never happen. Yes it may seem that Spirit are doing nicely out of this deal. But that is the nature of it.
In the last series of Peaky Blinders there was an expression 'Big f**ks small'. That's probably realistically true!!

SXX
Think he could affect the SP for smaller MC companies, probably not this. I do respect his opinion as I feel it more relevant than mine, as indeed are the opinions of certain posters on this board

Unlike some on this board I don't feel I have the competence to judge this as good or bad. I await, maybe, feedback from the likes of Malcy for that. However judging by the underwhelming SP movement I would suggest that the consensus is that this is not a particularly good deal (at least financially, perhaps better strategically) for HUR.

Good weekend everyone, think I am ducking out of posting pretty much. Don't think these boards are really for me

Thanks Paul, VanVan
What I was most annoyed about, as i have already implied, was that Dr Sener replied very quickly and comprehensively to an Email enquiry. I asked him if he minded me sharing his (paraphrased) reply with other interested shareholders, which he agreed to. He may, obviously I dont know, have seen the results today on the other site.
After that what can I expect if I have another enquiry? I cannot speak for him, and I imagine he would be helpful as we have already found him to be - but may well insist in future that our conversation is kept strictly private. In that case our friends on the other board have effectvely cut off a significant line of communication that has provided information to serious (and interested) shareholders.
Anyway, enough of this, I have learned by my mistake I think. Too trusting by half. Move on!

I stand by what I said about liking the LSE board, and that I only plan to post here. Today there has been a rash of posts, several referencing me, on the 'other' board about this road issue. Many, though not all, posts have been trying to make out the BOD have conspired to deceive shareholders.
In my view they haven't, and that (deliberately or not) there have been misinterpretations.
My understanding is that the Turkish Government was, and still is, intending to re route the district road that (I think my geography is correct) runs closely past the south western edge of the pit.. At present it would prevent the mining of seams in that area which run beneath the line of the road. The JV has applied for, and obtained, permission for the re routed road to clear the likely workings. This as been accepted and the complete re routed district road will be financed, and in future maintained, by the Turkish government. As this will not occur immediately the JV has constructed a short temporary diversion to the existing district road in order that the plans for the pit can be adhered to. The eventual re routed district road will, at the relevant place, follow the line of the JV financed temporary road round the SW end of Arzu south.
The JV is not building/financing the new district road, only 800 yards of temporary road (which I envisage is a bit like a chicane).
AAUs JV partner is a construction company who (apparently) can build roads. Given that is there a problem? I have to say it isnt to me, and making such decisions is what the management are there to do. Or are shareholders to be consulted on everyday operational matters from now on? Do we want to decide what make 4X4 s they use or the brand of coffee n the canteen? No, we want them to run the company and consult shareholders where necessary. And if I reached a stage when I no longer trusted the BOD to know when shareholders should be consulted or at least informed then I would sell my holding and invest elsewhere.
I was the one wo asked the question about the road at AS, though others joined the discussion on the night. I dont feel I was lied to or misled in any way unless someone who was actually there can correct me (I am more than fallible, I may have misunderstood something, if I have understood I'm sure there will be posts).
I think I am feeling a bit miffed because, due to critical reactions being expressed on the other board in part referencing myself, the BOD may not be as forthcoming (and timely) in their replies to queries from myself or other genuinely interested parties in the future That worries me as one of the things I like about this company is the boards approachability and willingness to engage in discussion.
Next time I will probably consider finding a way to contact certain of the posters on this board without publishing it for general consumption, because I don't want what I say to be used as a weapon to bash the company with.
John

88 slides!!
Wasn't expecting that!

Paul, love it: 'As well as pointing me in the direction of a book which went straight over my head'.
At least someone else feels that way!
Will look forward to reading the link to the presentation after I have pedalled to the beer festival for a second night. You may be spotting a trend here.

Again bow to your depth of knowledge!
Is odd that with all this good news in the public domain (albeit well hidden), with gold production greater than predicted (and costs far below) that the SP is less than it was as they built up to the first pour. And what was going on when the share price was 16.50p in April 2006?!
I too am no geologist - I even looked up porphyry on Wiki (ended none the wiser) and asked the same of a graduate geologist …. he didn't know either! I look forward to future presentations, and plan to buy some shares to hold in certificated form to avoid the hassle when trying to attend the AGM.
In here for the duration. If this (& Hurricane energy) don't work out then all my remaining dosh will go in the Nationwide or under the mattress! I am happy with what I see at the moment, steady exploration funded by actual net revenue from Red Rabbit. As i said the other day I would be surprised to see anything but Twitter updates in the near future.

Hi
Just to put my two penneth in.
I first bought shares in October 2016, and have basically been averaging down ever since, I now am pretty much at break even but with far more shares than I originally intended. As this stake has grown the company has naturally focussed my attention more and led me to find out everything I can about it. In fairness over the time the company hasn't really given me reason to doubt, and having now met the board I am still encouraged by the future. I am still learning from VanVan who really knows his stuff (and he likes cars!).
My earlier post was about being dispassionate - PIs fall in love with shares, whereas Fund Managers just look coldly at the facts. It is hard to do and I'm not sure I can. We all assume the RNS' regarding Eastern Turkey will begin with 'extremely pleased' and 'exceptional' and I don't think it occurs to us that the news may be less than spectacular (though I personally doubt we will have another Hot Maden, nice as that may be).
I couldn't have put it better than to say AIM is a cesspit. It is. But there are gems, and those gems may one day make you rich. But there is no getting away from the fact that AAU, impressive though it is, isn't for Widows and Orphans.
Just noticed that the Turkish Lira is weak again, which I find worrying as we don't really know what the Erdogan government will do in the light of continuing instability. I also want the company to look after the Turkish workforce to keep their morale high and eager to share in the companys success

desertjoe, Claretand Blue
I have a slightly odd way of looking at things sometimes, as you may notice. But to decide if AAU is worth continuing to hold consider the following 2 totally disparate thoughts:
a) I mentioned the other day that the market cap of AAU is less than some London properties. To put my theory to the test I just put properties > £15m in London into Rightmove. I got 134 hits. Some of them were 3 bedroom flats. They are worth the whole of AAU, a producing gold miner. Incidentally 65 of those were > £20m
b) Another way of looking at things. What would you buy instead? Forget how much you paid for these shares. Forget when you bought them. Suppose you had the current value of your AAU shares as cash in your bank, and you had never heard of Ariana, not a thing. Suppose you then researched the company from scratch, all the presentations, its record, staff, production figures, exploration results, prospects, its geographical location, everything. If after that research you would use the cash to buy AAU shares then keep them, if not then then sell. I have done that several times and find it helps (Note that this is a man who sold MARL, CEY and GWP too early as I got fed up of waiting!).

Seen the POO - > $77

Should **** Trump off

Hi in4cedros, VanVan
Lovely night, great beers as a beer festival on (Oakengates near Wellington in Shropshire). Didn't overdo it as I always cycle because I am far too mean to pay for taxis!
I don't intend to follow up any more on this re the actual cost to the JV or how it is to be amortised over the cost/oz in the coming quarters. That is not because I am disinterested but because I feel that the cost has been limited (to a half mile stretch of temporary road) and is totally justifiable in terms of the planned exploitation of the asset.
I checked with Dr Sener that he was happy for me to convey this information to interested shareholders so, if you would like further detail, I am sure he would be approachable on the subject. Obviously if you do find out more it would be good to share it, within the proviso of checking that it is ok to publish it to a wider audience.

John

I have had a reply from Ariana to my request for information about the new road at the Arzu South pit

Dr Sener told me that Ariana (strictly I think I mean the JV) put in an application to re-route the current district road to clear full pit development at the southern end of Arzu South. At the May 2018 meeting in America Square the timing of this road move was still unknown and not imminently expected. However the approval of this request was obtained shortly after, and a decision made to proceed immediately with a short temporary road ( ½ a mile only in length) along the path of the approved road in order to keep to the pit development plan. As previous surmised on this board the diversion is being funded by the JV as it was due to a specific request and its building is required significantly in advance of the Turkish government plan for a new district road. Sometime in the future the government will incorporate the temporary diversion into the planned permanent new district road.

Personally I am very happy with this reply, and to be honest I continue to be impressed by the openness of the senior management of this company – maybe it’s because of previous experiences I have had with other companies, both big and small! Anyway, off to curry and a pint at my local pub for £6. Bet you can’t get that in Turkey even with a weakened Lira! Don’t expect any sense out of me later. Hic!

Hmm. My post has been censored, I don't know why!
Oh yes I do, I've just realised! S****** is another way of saying Tee Hee or Chortle, think Wing Commander Gibsons dog in the Dambusters.
Sorry LSE, I can assure you that was completely innocent.

I know. The thought of accountancy was far to racy for me.
Actuarial types fall generally into 2 polarised camps, normal (even extrovert) and quite the opposite. Combining this and the conversation about cars I remember my boss once asking me something about the VW Passat he owned (I had a bit of a reputation for thinking nothing of decarbonising cylinder heads of cars I owned. There's nothing better than a good valve grind.....). Anyway, we went down to his car which he had owned for several years and I said 'ok, can you pop the bonnet?'. Sort of rhetorical question as far as I was concerned. He couldn't. Had never opened it!
Your joke is sort of similar to another I heard. What is the difference between ad accountant and actuary? At a party an accountant looks at the other persons shoes when he is talking to them. An actuary looks at his own. S******.
Another thing I heard springs to mind - The Company Secretary of a L&P firm I worked, for when I was still taking exams, asked me 'Do you know what the collective noun for a group of Actuaries is?' 'No' said I in all innocence. 'An Arrogance' came the reply. If I'm honest she had a point

You are joking! I am old car anorak, though a bit like music don't know a thing about modern stuff!
I used to work in life and pension taxation, which is a bit narrow and rather specialised, but obviously exams covered broader issues at a background level. Naturally personal tax takes your interest because it is an area which you can use to manage not only you own life but also advise (or should I say inform, I cannot advise) family and friends. To relate that to AAU, obviously we don't know how that will pan out long term but AIM shares do carry IHT advantages (plus the stamp duty advantage). Trouble is that if AAU becomes as successful as we hope it is unlikely to stay a) independent or b) on AIM!
So maybe we should hope the SP stays in the 1.25 - 1.45 range for the next few decades!

I'm not!! Actuarial and tax. Possibly even duller!