Member Info for johnpwh

I have to bow to your much greater knowledge concerning Ivrindi. I know pretty much zero about this prospect, and if google maps can be trusted it is not in trucking distance of the JV processing plant! Would be interested to know how they plan to exploit this.
Re Tavsan, it would seem a huge loss to cashflow if that were further delayed - it has already been put back a year. Also such a decision could surely not be taken in isolation as it would affect Procea also?
In light of recent events I look forward to an update of the May presentation - there is certainly a lot going on.

And another, an audio article, link on Twitter

Thanks for posting. I was getting a blank screen from the link, but found it by googling 'Proactive Investors Ariana Resources'. Its also, I noticed afterwards, available on the twitter page.
Things I took away over and above the RNS was that the higher grade was as expected by (the relaxed looking) Dr S this summer, and that this is probably as good as its going to get. Which is fine but I don't think 7000+ ounces can necessarily be expected from the existing JV every quarter going forwards.
When discussing other prospects I heard nothing about Kizilcukur, which would have been nice. Also it sounds like some of the work at Salinbas may be dictated not by hte BOD but the need to 'keep the licences intact', which I had not heard before - I'm not making a particular point by saying that, just noting it being said.
I am aware of my appalling spelling of some of the prospects in past posts. I am doubling my efforts to rectify that!

Yes, I recall.
A worry is that, to date,de the current life of mine at Tasvan is only 4 years at 30,000 oz a year. Ariana say there is potential for this to expand, but obviously that is not guaranteed. So the development schedule as currently posted would plunge at the end of 2024!
Re Kilizukur, the 30,000 oz at a conservative margin of say $600 /oz gives gross profit of say £(300000 x 600/1.30), or c.£14m. Hence my comment about Procea having a good deal at 3 x exploration costs if that is c.£1m!!
I see more photos on Twitter today. Nothing mind blowing but I do like it!

VanVan
Thanks for that. As you say guidance was for calendar year, I can picture in my mind (but too lazy to search for) Dr S recently saying that the guidance was to be comfortably met (obviously implying it would be exceeded). They do seem to be able to extend the life of mine, but I suppose that the costs associated with the outlying areas will be higher due to trucking in to the Kilzitepe production plant (bit off topic but I did ask Dr S about the Tasvan production plant and the fact that they seemed to be allowing less build time for that. He said that was for 2 reasons, first that there would be less earth moving necessary at Tasvan and secondly the final refining would be done at Kiziltepe not the Tasvan site, so the plant itself is smaller. Was a bit concerned as that would mean not only trucking but transportation of an already concentrated and hence valuable commodity. I guess they have it covered!). £1m does not (as a gut reaction) seem a lot to receive in exchange for giving away half Kizicukur, but there are other things to consider like maintaining relations with the JV partner and the sheer impracticality of 'going it alone' while needing to use a jointly owned production facility. It is the prospect of imminent news (though that could be negative, we presuppose it will be positive) that is tempting me to buy further. Decisions, decisions.

Hi Ricfle, Biffadog
I have no concerns, my poor communication skills may have given that impression. Fairly laid back albeit watching closely.
Late 2018/early 2019 FOIL doesn't really cause me any worries, though obviously the latter means a loss of net revenue compare to the former. We have been lucky from what I can see, no real hitches so far, I guess I am just prepared for something adverse to happen in such a complex exercise - full marks to the management that it has gone so well to date.
By 2019 FOIL being perceived as failure I only meant amongst posters on this board, not the market!
Re Rotterdam, I have no idea how long the AM will spend there - but there will be delay as I cant imagine they will be waiting with their arc welders ready and a tin of paint on the quayside as it arrives alongside. To me the important thing is that the AM reaches WOS robust and tested. That's what the sea trials are for, I have no experience of such things but its obviously conceivable that those trials will show up a problem. Surely the nightmare would be a return to somewhere like Rotterdam if a significant problem were encountered when on station?
I have just over 200k shares, Im not rolling in cash so watching very closely - apart from the bickering I find this board a very useful source of ideas

VanVan
Very silly! And that it at the current (unexpectedly) lowish gold price.
I don't think we can assume 7000oz+ each quarter from Kiziltepe, and despite the figures obtained Ariana have stood by their original guidance for the year. Seem to remember that current grades are unexpectedly higher than exploration predicted, whether that is temporary I don't know. Is the higher figure down solely to better grades or a combination with more ore being throughput - obviously the latter would have a detrimental effect on the life of mine.
Have you any idea what 3 x exploration cost could actually mean in terms of £? It had already crossed my mind that selling Kizilcukur into the JV may ease the possibility of any imminent fund raise for Salinbas - a fundraise when the company appears so undervalued is not desirable, less worrying if it were later when the SP is at the level we think it should be.
One thing that has surprised me is that there has been no more Director buying at current SP since the excellent update - the last Director deals were n the mid 1.40s. My imagination may be running amok but I wonder if there is imminent news on Kizilcukur or Salinbas exploration meaning they are unable to buy at the moment.

People seem so concerned about FOIL before the end of 2018. The company has never promised that, the only basis any of you have for expecting this is Dr T's habit of under promising and over delivering (a very welcome feature for a AIM share).
This board seems to be assuming sea trials will go well. I hope so but they are what they say, trials. If there are problems then there is delay, possibly weeks. Then the passage to Rotterdam (I think) for further fettling, who can predict accurately the delay there? And then, as Genghis rightly points out, we have weather to contend with as the festive season approaches - that alone could put it beyond doubt, the weather WOS cand be, er, spectacular.
Trouble is now that failure to get FOIL this year will be perceived by most as failure, even though it has never once been promised. Chill, have a drink or 2, you'll worry yourselves into an early grave.

Hi Joe.
May be able to answer, as always I invite people to correct me if they think I am talking through my backside.
As I understand it pretty much only Kizilcukur and (the potentially big) Salnibas prospects lie outside the current JV. There appears to be an option to take Kizilcukur into the JV following receipt of a multiple of the exploration cost incurred to date. Ariana want to do further work to firm up the reserves there first as that will maximize the revenue received by the JV partner for it to be included in the JV. The implication is that it is very likely to become part of the JV because it is too small to justify its own processing plant and is sufficiently close to the jointly owned Kiziltepe processing plant to utilise that for processing the ore. Clearly if production is kept outside the JV that would mean Ariana paying to use the (partially Ariana) owned JV processing facility which seems unnecessarily convoluted. Salinbas is potentially the big one, Ariana own it wholly at present, and want to do far more exploration to add to its potentially value before seeking a JV partner which may or may not be Procea (the current partner in Kiziltepe).
I discussed the highway move wit Dr S at the America Square meeting and he implied that they would wait to see if the Government moved the highway first before funding it in future if necessary, The fact that it is only a few months since the AS meeting implies that the government got on and did it without financial input being necessary from Ariana - obviously I dont know that but the timing suggests that to be the case.
.

Please will someone give me reasons not to buy some more please because I am sorely tempted. Cant believe the muted response to these excellent results Effectively the SP is clinging on to the losses a few days ago caused by its association with Turkey

Sorry, double should read doubling

Interested in VanVans take on the long awaited quarterlies.
I will be looking to the next presentation to see if the Resource Development Schedule will alter. In particular, in the May 2018 presentation, construction (and later) commissioning at Tasvan were proposed from mid 2019 onwards with production starting from early 2021. Important as it adds a predicted 30,000 ounces pa, double the current production. If Turkish banks are under stress (which they undoubtedly are) is this why future fundraising has been mentioned in the quarterlies, to fund construction? Perhaps I worry too much!

A sudden devaluation of the currency will certainly make a big dent in costs, not sure about the lasting effect of that. Inflation is very high in Turkey, its not clear if that can be rained in so I doubt this is a permanent reduction. The workers need to be kept happy to continue this outstanding production story, so I hope they are being cared for. Has to be a question mark until stability returns to the Turkish economy, a delay which is bound to act as an anchor on the SP until then. All IMO of course, I feel fully invested here (disproportionate amount invested given MV) but I see as a buying opportunity at these prices to those lucky enough to not yet invested. Me now being a Tweetee I saw the pics. Obviously nothing new but interesting all the same.

What's not to like? On the face of it everything we could hope for, under promising and overdelivering as previously. Still makes me nervous to read 'Company is funded internally for its current operations, although it will continue to appraise a variety of external funding strategies to accelerate its project pipeline in the longer term' but hopefully that is just added to avoid the BOD being accused by SH of deception if a fundraising is unexpectedly necessary.
Hopefully an interview with Dr S will appear in due course. I expect the usual rise in SP followed by a decline over the next few days!!
I would like to see an exploration update for Salinbasto appear shortly, and clarification of the Tasvan plans

Ok so I meant £2000 per week! :)
Time for my afternoon nap, the meals on wheels lady just left!!!

Thank you Andrew
This sort of post is precisely why I joined the board, truly appreciated.
No one knows exactly how this will unfold, but the geo political position of Turkey as the buffer between the West and East (particularly Syria etc) will surely act as an incentive for even Trump to back down and smooth things over before they spiral? I notice that the Turkish Lira has strengthened a little in the past couple of days.
One thing that isn't clear to me, but is a worry, is whether development finance for the JV to bring Tasvan into production may be now harder to find from the Turkish banks, as Dr S implied was almost a formality in the last interview I saw with him (no criticism of Dr S intended, things have changed since the interview).

Daltry

You are right. Some good friends of mine recently had to put both parents into a nursing home at the cost of £1k EACH per month. They may apparently get a £400 pcm reduction if they share a room. So their house, home for 50 years, is now being marketed to fund the fees. When that is all but gone the State will then help, which it would have done from the off had they been less responsible and blown their cash on flash cars and holidays in their earlier life.

In fact, as they say in the movies...….'It's too quiet...……...'

O dear VanVan,

We are running out of days for reporting quarterlies this week as well!! Seems odd when they were (just) in July last year. In fact seems to have gone quite quiet recently except for those photos on Twitter, no RNS for nearly a month now

I do wish they would stop reporting my trades