Member Info for johnpwh

I suppose only insomuch as sole responsibility for expenditure for drilling to maintain the GWA licences will eat into Lancaster revenues, but other wise I agree - the companies revenue comes from Lancaster in which HUR enjoys 100%. The PoO is the only threat there.

For gods sake don't tell Greta, she'll do her nut if HUR is burning fossil fuels

Good research Ash.

Thanks for the post Amaja. That would be good news in todays sea of despair!

What i would like to know is the reason why they are asking for an extension. Was the timescale set by the OGA or HUR/ Spirit unrealistic? Is the data proving hard to obtain? Are there problems with the gauges left? I think a mention in the RNS would have helped clarify the situation.
On the positive side this was an ideal opportunity to have said if the 2 wells on Lancaster were not now flowing together as planned from the end of January. No mention must mean that all is good?

Well that went down well!

I'm totally confused whether it is good or bad! First reading bad, second reading no so . Think it would be regarded as good if we believed the -8 well will be a nailed on success, as wells up to the end of 2018 always were (except the Halifax one). But after the GWA campaign in 2019 we now think maybe it will, maybe not...

You probably have more knowledge than me but I cant see why the use of ESPs would be desirable. 20,000 by natural flow would surely imply more promising long term well performance than having to force the oil up?

If oil production is down then obviously the water by volume would be expected to be down. However % water cut would not be obviously down. In my view the detail in the OGA tweet does not give adequate data to make a definitive judgement.

Read an article today about how the wonderfully named Mr. Looney is going to take BP forward post Bob Dudley, with a view to maintaining their divis and satisfying Gretas yogurt knitters. And also investors like the Church of England pension fund who are saying they will no longer invest in BP shares unless they start investing in windmills and the suchlike. Apparently BP may try to placate the tree huggers by selling their stake in Rosneft, which resulted from them having to end the TNK joint venture. Did make me wonder about who will jump into bed with Hurricane while all this green hysteria is going on - I think others have mentioned the close ties we have with BP but this article implied that fossil fuel investments may not be on the cards for BP in the current climate.

Don't get me wrong. I am all for the JV in Salinbas even though we kiss goodbye to nearly 80% of the asset (and just what are Proccea contributing to allow them to end up with exactly the same 23.5% share as AAU?). Without it I don't see any return there in my lifetime, but the amount sacrificed by AAU shouldn't mean that RR is eaten into as well. Don't forget the effort/finance already expended at Salinbas, does the £5m payment really compensate?
I would prefer to sacrifice the $25m dollars and keep RR as it is. We are nearly debt free there, very significant cash flows literally about to finally arrive at $1600 gold after all the years of effort and patience. Tavsan development is just around the corner, for which we should not need 'influential help' to attain given we managed it quite nicely at Kiziltepe. And as soon as we reach this long awaited debt free event at RR our interest is slashed by over 50%! With Tavsan we should, under the existing JV, have 51% of 50,000 + pa production within 3 years - maybe $25m net per annum. And we are losing over 50% of that by allowing the new JV to affect RR.
I have a feeling (and it is just that, I have no evidence whatsoever) that AAU are being leaned on.

Indeed it should be, love to be wrong but so wish the RR JV was being left as is. Not much I can do about it though.

Just woken up (I'm poorly).
Very cheered by the water cut / sprout analogy. Set me up for the day, twas a marvellous read.

Agree DJ. Some would think you a bit cynical there, but I agree to a point. MDV has a lot of 'skin in the game', far more than I ever did, so his enthusiasm for the deal is the major fly in the ointment to my arguments against the proposal.
I was just having a little private joke with Plasbryn, at least that is what was intended and I hope I haven't offended!
As for Brexit (well it s the weekend) then yes I'm happy. The EU was turning/ had turned into a monster and I see conciliatory tones coming from both France and Germany implying there may be about to review where the EU is/where it is going. Could be that we have sacrificed ourselves for the greater good. Maybe that's what we are like on this funny Island, if so its something to be proud of and I love this place (warts and all).
Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

No problem AndersonSW, I'm not one of the posters with sharp teeth and claws!

LW
There has been news to form a basis for, if not to explain the full extent of, the recent decline. We have the GWA results which were interpreted as 'mixed', we have uncertainty over Spirits future participation, weakness in the PoO, weakness in global stockmarkets in general and evidence of shorters playing games with this share. And the 'w' word. From memory the previous dramatic drop had no such list of adverse factors to explain so there had to be 'something' else - which was the fund raise.
At present there is just a perception amongst potential investors that the SP will continue to decline since it has done so almost without relief from late November. So we have sellers but no buyers, and the result is..... Once that expectation of further decreases abates I see a significant rise, if not to the long term mid- 40s average then at least well into the 30s

Sorry, DW!

Like you IDW I'm not an oilie and hope that rather than increase with time it would be a right old result if it were sucked dry ( so as to speak) over time. Lets hope that there are indications that is happening - an easing of tensions surrounding this share would certainly reduce my gin consumption!

Nice Dogwalker but please don't use expressions like 'currently under water'.
The less we hear of the 'w' word on this board the better...….

Good analysis Captain. Particularly regarding perched water when the Board have emphasised time and time again that any material changes will be communicated/ Yet earlier this week they stated all is fine. Changes cant get much more material than that implied by suspicion of non perched water