Member Info for Jerryspaniel

Hannam are effectively the house broker. I would think they know more than anyone else. Of all the broker notes out, I would rely on this one more than any other. They wont put out any controversial thoughts without running them past SOLG. I still think MRE will be double, but they may just be reigning in the optimism a tad.

MC. Haha. No, but I did work for a very large multinational US company. A lot of big companies think the same.

It could be that they want to be friendly with NM/Ecuador and not upset him/them. With a stake in SOLG and first look at all that they are doing, they are de-risking their involvement. With a slightly larger stake they might view SOLG as their Ecuadorean exploration arm with limited involvement and a cheap way of learning how to operate in that country. Once they have sucked all the info and SOLG have drilled loads more holes, they can buy the biz, knowing what they are getting.

S4. That was the price for that many shares I suppose. They wanted to get in before anyone else did. Who approached whom? I am not saying they wont end up getting SOLG but unless they pay a huge price, they will have to wait 2yrs or for someone else to go hostile. My bet is on them waiting, tho I do expect them to top up to Newcrests level.
NM needs and wants a steadily appreciating share price, so that if he gets taken out its from a higher base.
Zeus. I think MRE2 - PEA - MRE3 - PFS - FS with maybe a few more MREs along the way. This will get the sp going up like a staircase and if NM gets a take out at say 40% prem off a much higher level in at least 2 years, he will have executed his plan. Just IMHO of course. !!

To play devils advocate. BHP cant go hostile for 2 yrs, so why would Newcrest make an offer when they know it would free BHP to join the bidding. Newcrest aren't really Cu miners and they will almost certainly lose to the much bigger BHP over this. If Newcrest 'lose out', they will make a nice profit on their investment and it will be a much bigger profit if they wait.
A third party can only win if they take out Cornerstone. Maybe CGP should trade at a prem to SOLG?
Of course BHP could make an agreed offer for an asset or SOLG, but why would they pay the multiples of sp that NM thinks he should get. I cant recall any t/o of a company of this size that has gone for more than double the sp.
So my money is on no t/o in 2019.

It may not be analogous, but in the oil industry fields are often sold off and permits redrawn.
I would suggest that an oil field is a lot more complicated than a mine.
If you thought there was a lot more to do in Cascabel, with a lot of unproven upside, why would you sell the whole tenement? Monetise Alpala if they come calling, keep the upside.

Lucky you Mog. I have two thirds in ISA and one third general inv a/c. Too old to have a SIPP!
On a slightly more interesting point, is it feasible that NM chooses to 'develop' a mine based on the high grade au deposits near the surface (Go for gold). With that cash flow he can suggest that he will develop the rest of Alpala, though in practice I don't think many of us feel he has the capability to do so. This, in the absence of a hostile bid, he gets himself a bit more time, and hopefully a higher sp. This plan would be years not months to come to fruition.

Oh I hate dividends. Such an inefficient use of capital. And taxable! Yuk.
Do a massive tender offer to get rid of those who want out. Keep the rest of the cash to prove up other prospects.
I am 62 too. Don't want the money at 70, but 65 will be ok. Just in time for a gold plated stairlift....

Probably £1 for Alpala now, but might be £1.50 next year. Probably £1.20 for Cascabel now. I think there is a good chance SOLG will be worth over £2 in a few years if left to its own devices. That will require them to invest any proceeds wisely (if they were to sell Alpala/Cascabel) and prove up some of these other projects.
Right now seems a bit of a pipe dream but I am in no hurry.
SP weakness is a symptom of the general market. I sold some things that are too cheap, but because I think SOLG has better risk/reward. Others may have similar views on other stocks they see as better than SOLG.
But proper believers should see this as opportunity than a threat. If you are worried, then you probably have too much already.

I have sold a few things to give me some more powder. So have placed a couple of nice size buy orders lower down. Now off to the gym. Breathe!

Cant argue with your logic FTJNY. I was just hoping that you were a geologist who had spent many years analysing and developing copper mines. Someone out there must be.

I have always liked the sound of £2.50, and am happy to wait up to 4 yrs to get it. More than 4 years and I will be running out of time to spend it. But I will have a go!

It was me RR. My concern was that the news would be lost in the normal 2-3 week shutdown in London. She agreed though whether that has anything to do with the cut off, I don't know. She also said she would get me an invite to mines and money, but she hasn't yet.

FTJNY, can I ask what you base your confidence on? Are you qualified to make that call, or just like most of us here, an educated guesser!

I would love to hear a geological interpretation of hole 64. It was talked up through rumour and innuendo and yet the numbers don't look as special as I was led to believe. So maybe there is another angle. Did it increase the size or grade of the core, or the prospect?
I would like to think that NM will address this next week.

I wonder whether BHP were insiders of this news and now they aren't.. If so, good time to get their chequebook out methinks.

With the PEA now scheduled for Jan, and presumably will only incl the data in MRE2(?), the PEA will be out of date by maybe an additional 25% of drilling results.
I know we don't want them to stop drilling, but the announcements are so dated that any analysts reports, which will also be after those events, will be even more out of date.
If share prices are supposed to be looking 9months into the future, the sp is way behind the future news curve.

I think the AGM is in Brisbane. Last years was.

Of course it could be that they have already been made insiders and that's why they haven't bought anything. If true I wonder what that could be?!!

Agree Strider. Also they can still top up their s/holding to Newcrests level, but cant if they are made insiders which a board seat would inevitably mean. I would have thought they would be nibbling away now, but its small potatoes for these guys and they may have their eyes on other things - like the deal just signed.