Member Info for Jerryspaniel

Although I love the idea, I fear that BHP could pick up the whole company for a quid and definitely for £2 atm. So £4 for Cascabel is sadly unrealistic.
I like the revenue sharing idea but it would need to be nett profit and not gross sales (which at 20% could be more than nett profit!).
I would be interested to know what is the record price paid for a miner over its 30 day vwap???

Great posts everyone, especially on value of other assets and deals. Its these sort of comparisons that the brokers should be looking at imho.
Addicknt, when you say NM shouldnt be making so many presentations, do you mean at industry conferences or to instos? I would argue that its a major part of his job. In the absence of an Exec Chairman, the CEO will have to do the majority of the relationship management. We need a lot more sticky instos rather than st flaky PIs (not us here of course!). Imho our register is way short of the required insto following. Also he has to be in London as thats where the main listing is and so are some of the brokers, banks and most of the instos. Plus some of these instos need multiple visits over multiple years before they invest. Also I think he likes the industry stuff as its a great place to network, meet potential staff and get the word out. He is also a multi yr award winner of multi awards! And having been at M&M twice last weeks I can say that all the key players are there. I would think he should be in London 2-3 times a year.
On other matters I am going for end Jan as timing of PEA and I am not sure BHP would be itching to have a board seat. As they cant make a hostile bid for 2 years what would they gain by being on the board? What they will lose is the flexibility cos they will be an insider most of the time.
I am sure he would feel less exposed to a 'silly bid at silly prices' if the sp was at some of the brokers target prices, but I guess thats obvious!

Not laughing but dont understand how they would do that?
Plus they arent allowed to sell (unless they offer it to SOLG) and if they bought and went through the next full % point they would have to declare.

FWIW (and not a lot atm!), my guess would be that they know they wont get the company at a reasonable price to them at this stage of SOLG's development. Given the disasters of previous t/os (BHPs oil and Rios coal in Mozambique to name just the two that I can recall), I think they would rather just have a small piece of the action and watch and wait and see whether SOLG can get a valuation for Alpala via the PEA or better still, prove that this is the new Chile, by finding more tier 1 deposits geographically further away, like the targets down south.
For the majors its better to have a (say) $10 billion investment than a $2 billion punt.

Maybe they both win. NM gets 2 yrs to prove up the assets and the company (SP). BHP get a de-risked purchase.
Its possible, but I am still slightly leaning towards NM getting plenty of time to make SOLG into BHPs Ecuadorean project that takes years, by which time BHP own maybe 25% but no more. And SOLG get chance to drill every prospect.
Or maybe the latter is just my hope!
Night all.

On the subject of reading matter my favourite is SImple but not Easy by Richard Oldfield. Still available on Amazon. Great chapter called 'where are all the clients yachts'.
My two worries are sovereign risk and key man risk. Does NM have a number 2/replacement? Don't think we have seen anyone close to his tactics/vision/negotiating skills. Presentation skills still need working on imho.
When I worked in the industry and Tim Steer was an analyst and went by the nickname 'Bum'. Always thought that quite amusing. Maybe not to his face though.....

That's exactly the 40% uplift that I think is a good guide to t/o premia. 1.4 times 36p is derisory for SOLG and not one that any of us would think acceptable, I would have thought. NM would regard that as 'silly'.

but what was the mkt cap movement? you could say that SOLG has gone from 2p to 45p while increasing the shares in issue substantially.

2hits, do you think that they could get some debt financing for an offtake agreement with (say) Glencore? Seems these sort of things are quite commonplace these days.
My take on the hostile or not situation is somewhat different to OWAN. I would say that BHP wont go hostile as a) its not their style and b) if they did and Ecuador lost their showcase company on how they would like their resources developed, wouldn't Ecuador be a tad miffed?
On other matters regarding the register, I think NM has more support that that. Also if either BHP or Newcrest went hostile (which I don't think they will) then he is bound to have the full support of the other!
When I started buying I thought it a 2-5yr project. A year later, I still do.....
I would be fascinated to hear what an ex Goldman partner thought. Enjoy your lunch.

addicknt. You and I agree pretty much 100%. I think NM knows that he can defeat a cheeky lo ball bid. I would guess that to be in the range of 50-80p right now. This might go higher after PEA and would def be higher if SOLG were to find another potential mine. He also prob knows he cant defend a knockout bid, though at quite what price that is I don't think we can even guess atm. I also don't think his friends would go hostile.
I am 100% comfortable with his plan and not worried at all about the st sp movement. I am now going to relax and enjoy the ride.

He is still in London as presenting at M&M in 2 mins!

Shippy. Bhp cannot sell shares into the mkt w/o offering them to SOLG first, except in certain circumstances (I doubt whether those circumstances have occurred in the last month). Its part of the standstill agreement.
Manipulation is illegal.
BHP has a mkt cap of 100billion aussie. Why would they risk breaking the law trying to manipulate a company 1% of its size?
If you think that NM is up to something then I suggest you sell your shares tmw morning.

I would still like the 'how' answered.

Shippy, you didn't answer my question. How?
Not sure I ever claimed to be an expert. I am fairly new to BBs as I have found many people to have no knowledge but a lot of opinions. Its a pity people shouldn't have to say what their qualifications are to make such statements, but such is the nature of (anti) social media.

FR. Good response. I agree that the markets aren't efficient which of course is a lot different to being manipulated.
I also agree that the t/o premium has largely gone away and will probably stay away for the next few months, possibly 2 years.
My view of charts is that as long as many look at them through the same viewing lens they work as they are self fulfilling. But you do need a lot of liquidity, as w/o the liquidity one is exposed to random events. I prefer charts on indices and currencies, than smaller caps, but its just a personal pref and anyone is perfectly entitled to find whatever, legal, edge they like.
My take on NM is that he is desperate to get the sp to a higher level as he is very fearful that he might lose control at a price that is way too cheap for him. T/O premia are often about 40% but 1.4 times 35p isn't good value for him. Maybe 1.4 times 150p is? Just not sure how he is going to get it there in next 6-12months.

Shippy, with your far superior knowledge than my 44 years in the financial markets maybe you could explain to this deluded investor how exactly one goes about manipulating a company's shares in this day?
I love to learn.

Thanks ZF. So not really their peers at all then? Maybe they were when SOLG was sub 20p. I think they need to update their database.
As an aside I have been thinking about SOLG a lot recently - haven't we all!! The SP action is as perplexing to me as it is to many incl NM. A few weeks ago, I thought we would have been over 40p with drill news and over 60p with MRE2. The PEA would have taken us above 70p and so on as they asset grows and the viability increases.
Obviously that hasn't happened and therefore in my logical way, I need to understand why. Naturally I don't KNOW but here are a few of my explanations in no particular order:
1. The sp has run into selling from weak holders of options recently exercised.
2. We are in the natural cycle of a small cap as we move from PI holders to Instos. The PIs are getting out and that is explained by loads of really small sell orders.
3. NM hasn't played the news very well. He has flagged up every bit of good news, so that when it arrives its a case 'ahem, well we knew that anyway'. He has promised and delivered, but he hasn't under promised and over delivered as any broker would advise. The PEA is now flagged so that might be another yawn. He needs to hit the market with good, new news. (My suggestion would be another site with drill news).
4. The Instos just aren't buying yet. W/o the premium listing, its not a FTSE250 stock and it might not be on the list of investable securities for many fund managers. They may have to wait for mine development or some such other 'event'.
5. He is delivering too much news (bit like #3).
6. Market is risk off atm.
7. The dreaded charts.
8. Price manipulation.
I am going to put this question to them tomorrow as they should be getting good feedback from their brokers by now.
My bet is that it is a combo of 2, 3 and 4.
7 might have some minor st effect and as for 8, well I am not a believer of those stories.
Any other explanations out there?

Does anyone know who these peer companies are that trade at a discount to SOLG? Are they comparing apples with apples? Maybe tiny, dodgy Canadian stuff on the Vancouver exchange? (IMHO!!).

Schlemiel, my tuppence is that you are one of the top posters on this site so carry on with my full support. You find stuff that others don't and you aren't abusive or sarcastic. (I really don't know why others are - such a waste of time and effort).
I am not particularly interested in L2 but its your right to put that stuff out there for the short termers.

I put that question (by email) to Anna yesterday evening. No answer yet, but they are probably v busy. From my experience these events can get pretty tiring with (maybe) 8 meetings a day and breakfasts, lunches and dinners. Pretty tiring repeating the same old thing meeting after meeting.