Member Info for Jerryspaniel

Maybe they don't like the dilutive effect of the options. Having 10% of the shares in issue out in options is pretty hefty I would suggest. If its as people say, to reward staff in the event of a t/o then fine, but the directors don't need this too. They have a lot of shares already. NM is getting greedy and I don't like it.

Well my guess at an explanation for the delay is that the results are complex and will need some explaining. This could be cos of hole 64 and the possible extension of the area. Could also be because they have something to say about other areas. As this needs explaining (if it does), then NMs presentations later this month would be the ideal time. So announce just prior to that, and not 2 weeks before, leaving everyone to ponder the interpretation. Not that we aren't doing that now of course!
Wrt BHP, I had assumed that they don't want to nominate a person to the board just yet, so that they could hoover up the other 43 myn shares whilst not being inside. However if I was right on that we should have seen some higher volumes and they would have gone through some disclosable levels, so I am at a loss to explain. It cant be cos they don't know who to nominate, as they must have decided this some time ago.

How could they subscribe to a placing if they were in possession of non public info?

Well if BHP know the results, that will cut them out of buying any more shares till the news is released. Cant see why they would want to know ahead of time. What good will it do them?
As a courtesy they might be told during the day Aussie time, ahead of the announcement at 7am, but that's about it.
However I do agree that its inconceivable that NM doesn't have the assays back, especially from hole 64. Each day I think 'this is the day', and it isn't.
However I have never thought that by tomorrow afternoon at 3.53pm the shares will be trading at 43.6666 recurring, which is what some people here seem to think!!!!! :-)

With NM presenting in 2 and 3 weeks time in London, I think its more likely he will save the goodies for his presentations and the announcements for just prior to that. However Anna is quite good at hinting at things to come - vis her saying that SOLG are now starting to think that Cascabel/Alpala might not be their best prospect.
As to whats priced in, anyone who knows anything about this company knows they have been talking about doubled resource for over a month now, but instos wont buy on rumours and spec. They would prefer to pay more for something that's known. Less risk for them that way.

its all in the documents and is the diff between Newcrests holding and BHPs. Its about 40myn.

My view is that it should be more than twice the MRE. Firstly he should be under promising and over delivering, and secondly why wouldn't one assume that its lineally correlated to the distance drilled? So 158/53 X the MRE? Plus add on something for being better at drilling and you get to big numbers. Then deduct something for 'irrational exuberance' and you still get to a much bigger number than twice. All IMHO!!

Well if they are, that would preclude them from topping up their holding to the level of Newcrest. When they have a board seat they will be heavily restricted from trading in the shares, so either they will need an effective Chinese Wall (not very credible) or they will have to do their buying ahead of taking the board seat.
Of course they could just wait for periods when they are not privy to non public information, but when you have 12 rigs running, when is that?

Well found Schlemiel. I cant say that I am a subscriber to all these conspiratorial theories in the first half of the article. Its really difficult to manipulate commodity prices (see NB Hunt and silver in the late 70s, Hanamaka and Sumitomo and Copper in the 90s(?) and the Malaysians in the tin market in the 80s). Main problem is that you have to do the opposite of what you really want - that's is sell something cos you are a buyer, or buy something cos you are a seller. The law of unintended consequences kicks in (do you remember all those individuals queueing outside Johnson Matthey to literally sell the family silver?). We you do if you are of a certain age....
Having said all that, I think the s&d analysis is spot on and a nice secondary reason to be holders of SOLG. Lets hope that we are still in the company when prices pick up.

I would have thought it likely that SOLG would have arranged with their house broker(s) a trading arrangement where staff could have sold ahead of the options expiry - and this week if necessary. Maybe not by weeks but certainly days. If this is the case, I wouldn't expect any significant selling from staff going forward.

I agree that's its not overly clear, but my read is that these two gents each had 1.25myn options at 28p and they exercised them and sold the shares once exercised, so if they have any shares now, they were the original holding, pre exercising.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement!!

Not sure why I am bothering, but Cu is up from lows, down from highs. 12 mo low was 2.56 in Aug, its now 2.75. Was 3.30 in June.
Short term moves not particularly relevant to a company that wont be producing anything for a few more years.
Have a good weekend all, incl Mr/Ms/Mx Bottom.

Ha. Disagree with manipulation not Nobby!
Nobbys views are very long term, this market is atm v short term.

I am afraid I strongly disagree. But if you are sure, then you probably know why and what they are going to do, and how they will do it. Then you can take advantage of that situation for your personal gain. So you should be quite content.
However I don't know, but I think that a purchase on the close, ahead of the options expiry might be the way I will play it.

No sp is immune from mkt sentiment, and w/o a borrow one would expect these shares to be at their weakest the day before options expiry. Also PIs often sell their most profitable investments to pay for their losses elsewhere, rather than sell the worst investment. Just IMHO, but calm heads need to prevail in these situations.
If you think the sp is too low, then buy. If you cant afford to buy any more, take the dog for a long walk!!

Assuming that BHP and/or NCM approach NM at some stage in the next 2 years with a bid for SOLG, the best we can hope for is that NM offers them ENSA instead. Given the low risk approach of BHP/NCM who would rather pay more for something further along the development pipeline, this could suit all parties. It wont give us the massive payday in one go, but it could give the book a few more chapters. Lets hope we can get 2 or 3 times current sp for ENSA and a continuing investment in NM/SOLG/Ecuador story. All IMHO of course!

This market is NOT being manipulated! Its just not worth the time, effort and risk to manipulate shares. Market makers are there to make a turn on bid/ask and for that reward they offer liquidity.
If you really thought the market was being manipulated you could take advantage of these lower prices. Its more likely that someone here owns too many and needs to 'blame' someone/thing. Just MO as usual.

GV, what do you mean by the 'new shares issued to BHP hitting the market'?
They don't hit the market, they just get issued to BHP in that they now have another 100myn shares and SOLG has £45myn. There is some dilution of existing holders % ownership, but as shares are below the issued price one could argue that this accretive than dilutive to a valuation.
NB Obv the shares could hit the mkt if BHP were to sell them but I don't think anyone thinks that has any likelihood.

From what I have read $413 pmt is for assets that are a lot more advanced than SOLG. Probably for something that has bank funding and could be said to be in development. For a company proving up the asset maybe a third to a half of that. Just what I have read.
Having said all that I think any analysis has been way too light on the rest of the portfolio, so maybe they all offset.

He has a 10min slot. What can one say in that time? Unless it has already been announced in an RNS the day before..... Just theorising...