Member Info for Jatw

Two weeks to go for the HY update and news on US sell down.
Politics point the way to Jackson leaving the Pru. The remaining questions are when, how and at what value?

I agree, no nasty surprises.
Well funded for the future....somewhat surprised these are trading down today, esp given yesterday’s fall.....would think there may be a bounce coming.

AZ has announced breakthrough designation for tagrissso in certain lung cancers.
This should accelerate development of tagrisso with Savolitinib hanging onto its coat tails.
Another item for questions today.

1pm tomorrow...don’t miss it....
To hear it live requires pre registration.

Calisen is also off more than 3%
Can’t see anything specific, maybe a large seller will be known soon.

The real positive for me is progress in rejuvenating the drug pipeline.
They are a couple of years behind AZN in the approach but it is the way to long term increase in the SP that would indicate the best time to buy in is during the next year. Once the market sees the uplift in sales and profits the shares will rise. It will also be ahead of the separation. I plan to hold both successor companies

My focus is on sales of new oncology drugs....these had strong momentum in the last updates and are the bedrock of future profits. Expect strong growth and profits in this area to support the SP. there has been a lot of progress in the pipeline plus the recent daiichi deals.

All the antibody work is not for profit at present so will have little effect....but expect a lot of airtime on this in the results.

My sincerest hope is that the deal with Lilly results in a win win with HCM a committed distributor maximising Elunate revenue for both parties.
It also gives the sales team an immediate boost.
I expect distribution capability will be v important for surufatinib launch and also as a way to build relations with other partners - with reciprocal agreements for China and US/Europe possible once HCM is up and running.

What I hope is that HCM creates a highly effective sales team in China.
Switching Elunate distribution to HCM will maximise sales and remove any conflicts of interest inside Lilly from the equation. Maybe Lilly keeps its net profit protected in this deal but has few costs so it could be win win....but I think we must also recognise drivers for the deal that are not wholly positive (I hope I am wrong, but I suspect Elunate sales are not what was anticipated, maybe COVID has kept patients away, or they have died early).

I find it hard to imagine HCM will want to distribute product directly in EU and US and will have to licence or pay distributors there. If they can offer others China distribution in return, they may make up in China what they have to give up outside.

.....to my knowledge no life assurance company has traded near an EEV NAV....even takeovers have been at 75%.
Anyway, the HY results look pretty impressive at first sight. Positive NCCF, AUM down 2% only. IFRS profits significantly higher.
Look forward to the presentation

Could not agree more.....another accelerated review. Can only be a good thing...
Launch a few months earlier.....
The sales team will be v busy....with three products to distribute.

Davey, I am not sure that the Lilly deal is necessarily good news. Why would lilly back away from the product? We will hear more about it in due course.
I can see why Hcm needs the product to give its sales team something to do, also the HCM team will face fewer obstacles selling than a us pharma.....
The positive view would be that lilly wants to focus on other products and does not have capacity or China govt wants a change to promote HCM as a local champion.
The negative is that sales have not been going well...and lilly wants out.

AZ has a bargain in Savolitinib.
For the second time in 18m, it has agreed to pay Daiichi up to 6bn for a share in a new oncology drug.
With HCM now more established it could strike a better deal. I wonder what would happen if Surufatinib is licensed in US or WW ex China how much HCM could raise? And whether that would transform the views of the market? How HCM goes about commercialising it’s pipeline is fundamental to the valuation. It will play out in the next 12-18m.

FWIW my opinion is that the insurers are likely to lose.
The courts have sided increasingly with policyholders. treating customers fairly means interpreting terms and conditions when The extent of cover is not clear.
It will be found not to matter how the business disruption was caused, merely that there was disruption.
Whether the insurance industry can claim the govt caused harm to them will be the next case in the courts.
Insurers pay, then the govt reimburses them.

Davey thanks for posting these interesting wider articles. Always good to see the bigger picture.

For those who are planning to attend, the HY results presentation is at 13:00 on Thursday next week. The results will be published at 12:00. Dial in details and webcast registration details are on the company website. I will be listening in.
What we would like to know:
Elunate has made good progress and is accelerating.
Launch plans for surufatinib
Sales force building
Cash in place for 21/22 development
Large molecule platform deal (surprise)
Commercial not too badly affected by COVID-19
Convert to FTSE from AIM and HK/China listing.

The pipeline keeps expanding with the commencement of testing of the ninth novel drug candidate...Let’s hope they continue to find targets and are effective.

HY results next week will showcase the rapid progress being made by the company towards being a self sustainable commercial business.

Who can guess the market reaction these days.
I guess the chart showing revenue back to pre Covid days is reassuring and the statement about leverage reduction is useful.
I still think practices will be cheaper to purchase in future, so rapid expansion could be back on the agenda.

Peel hunt (have to say that carefully) have downgraded to hold with a target of 820.
That would be the same peel hunt that reiterated 1280 only a few weeks ago.

Suspect today’s movement is reaction to other pharma and bios on Aim.
ABCam down 5-7% on its trading update and cautious US trading.

I find Aim stocks often open with a 5% bid offer margin over previous close and then It moves towards one end or the other....today it was down after several days of ups. Nothing to worry about too much.
Even FTSE100 largest stock has been volatile with 2-3% movements and 5% on occasion, so volatility in smaller stocks likely to be higher in the medium term.

Long term consolidation target in my view....EM capability would go well with many more developed market houses.
Sentiment towards EMs changes rapidly....on the lookout for signs of this.