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I can’t think of a similar example other than PE listings and those don’t often end well with share overhangs depressing the market.
Maybe there is no one willing to pay cash for Jackson and this is the best way of extracting $5bn for the business over 2-3 years.

The structure of the demerger means the proceeds will be used to reduce debt and invest in new business (they will be on the hunt across Africa for good businesses to buy). There will be nothing in it for shareholders other than a stronger Africa/Asia business which is a prize in itself.

Thanks for posting Davey....that is a nice 15% uplift in valuation.
Conversion into a share price At this point may not take account of the dilutive effects of the share based remuneration and the GA warrant

Eccles, your bro should seek advice and look at safer funds....this is not safe in the sense that a bonds is safe....a second lockdown could see the finance sector hit hard. It is down 20% on pre Covid levels. If there is another drop it will be quick and severe.

Suspect this is just as expected....it is a positive development but is dependent on the US approval process. Edison expected a 2021 launch in Europe in their forecast.
Last weeks surge to 30+ will do for now. There was some retrenchment on Friday, so this news May help to shore up the SP around current levels rather than drifting back.

What to look for?

Capital position, dividend and continuation of the share buy back.
AUM and sales in Q2

What are the key items to look out for?
Interim dividend maintained?
Q2 sales
Future of Jackson
What have I missed out?

Key items for Wednesday
SCR has it changed after payment of a large dividend?
Interim dividend is it as promised at floatation?

AUM flows esp in Q2.
Prufund sales and progress with promised extension into EU.
Expansion in Asia and US...how is it progressing?

What have I missed out?

Today’s outperformance is presumably additional buying ahead of interesting results tomorrow.
There is a promised update on the future of Jackson and whether there will be further autonomy or full separation.
The market will also be interested in how the business has fared in Q2 in absolute terms and relative to peers, and whether the dividend is cut.

https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/noncommunicable-diseases/cancer/data-and-statistics
Summary below.....Europe is a large oncology market.....of course there are many different forms of the disease and treatments with pricing closer to US than China it is also a profitable opportunity. The EMA news is welcome, not much extra expense (no trials needed) and bringing forward sales can only be a good thing for patients (with limited or no other options) and the company.

With more than 3.7 million new cases and 1.9 million deaths each year, cancer represents the second most important cause of death and morbidity in Europe. On a global scale, cancer accounted for 8.2 million deaths (around 13% of the total) in 2012.
Tobacco consumption and excessive alcohol consumption cause about 40% of the total cancer burden. The precise figures vary from country to country.
If the consequences of inappropriate diet, obesity and insufficient physical activity are added, the percentage of cancers due to an unhealthy lifestyle rises to 60%.
Although more than 40% of cancer deaths can be prevented, cancer accounts for 20% of deaths in the European Region.
Europe comprises only one eighth of the total world population but has around one quarter of the global total of cancer cases with some 3.7 million new patients per year.
Lung, breast, stomach, liver, colon and breast cancer cause the most cancer deaths each year.
Tobacco use is the single most important risk factor for cancer.

The ADS are 47.11 using the Edison valuation - this is not diluted by share options already granted and the GA Warrant.

The latest Edison research has increased the valuation by c$390m, and from $6.3bn (£6.84 to £7.24) $6.69bn.
Oddly they give the £ rather than ADS valuation but a company value in $. I suspect the recent $ weakness makes the £ increase better news.

Amones, yes it is a strange condition.
There have been a number of HK IPOs by China entities with little in the way of commercial success.
I recall reading that HKSE was relaxing it’s rules to allow Bio companies that had never made a profit to list so I think this is self imposed and a bit “old school” as plenty of companies seem to be able to sell thin air and there is plenty of substance in HCMs pipeline.

I agree calisen has a lot of debt....always a risk with a PE float.

The market view would be that Calisen is 40% down since float whereas SMS has not suffered during Covid.
Once calisen has worked off some of its debt, it may become more interesting...will watch and maybe buy there in a couple of years but that depends on how SMS progresses.

Agree with you oxygen, but we are “armchair CEOs” and negative to some on this board.
The problem remains what is Aviva’s USP and are they any good at it?
I suspect that there is significant room to raise the UK profitability, but Aviva is already big so growth may not be in market share. Insurance business has been driven by price....Covid has shown the gulf In expectations between those providing and those buying insurance, there is opportunity for higher priced more comprehensive policies at better margins, but mass market Aviva may not have the reputation to deliver on this.
Life assurance, Aviva is big but not as good as LGEN, asset management has not been a strength for some time. Annuities and Mortgages are also price sensitive and bring more rather than less risk to the balance sheet.
That said, I do think the company is too lowly valued and is worth much more. We will wait and see what “operated for shareholder value” means. I thought that was a core competency of any group.

Thank you to all the irregular/old commentators, good to get some interesting questions and opinions being aired.

Dnalkr1k rather than emperors clothes, the analysts have lots of variables in their models that value the company. There are two researchers that are linked on the company website Edison and Trinity Delta. Sales, margins, market penetration, competitor activity and most of that is after low probability of success in trials.
If you look back at some of my recent posts, I would like to see more explanation of how they select their candidates based on commercial opportunity. There is no point spending 20m on developing a drug with only a few patients that can be treated. The analysts have these numbers (maybe supplied by the company). I can understand why CH may not want to set this out as it creates expectations, but he did so re Elunate and a target of 40% share in China.
What is certain is that we are moving into a period where evidence will be available to see whether management have been targeting valuable prospects or not.
What we have seen over the last few years of presentations is that the company is meeting its commitments and forecast progress.....the regulator giving priority review in China and US shows interest in surufatinib and Savolitinib
I remain optimistic, but also expect there will be some disappointments along the way.

Eurofox intrigued by your comments....are you suggesting that we can get a better deal by putting a low order near the close?

All at sea,
I have worked in life assurance cos for 20 yrs. The companies are very different in character. I am impressed by the coherency of strategy and its execution at LGEN and it seems to have caught the ESG mood of investing for good.
It has sold two large parts of its business in the last couple of years and seems better for it. Others would do well to follow suit focusing on sectors where they have a competitive advantage and bulk.
The large fee based asset management unit is highly profitable. The capital intensive risk business (annuities, mortgages, life) will have their ups and downs, but actuaries generally price in some prudence so should return profits and capital in the future..

No one should believe this is a risk free investment. Mass defaults on bonds would quickly impair the capital position which at c170% is in a comfortable zone. The BOD will aim to keep it there, but may be willing to let it dip into the 160s. Below 150 new risk business is likely to be constrained and the dividend reviewed. The sensitivities published in the results (at FY if not HY) will show what market movements may do to the capital position for those interested the data is there.

I suspect they have enough cash resources, and if they don’t they will have the option of debt or equity....the CFO will have a key role to play.

BTW There was nothing about HCM in the CKHH results....but HCM is not consolidated and is held as an investment now.

Davey
Can you remember what monies have been raised sine the middle of last year.
This year the did 100 in feb, then 100 in July plus 100 on the warrant, plus 50 from the land transaction.
Did they raise in q4?

They have most of the 500m.

I dare say CKHH will sell another 5-10% as part of any HK listing. So the amount neede and raised by the company may be much less now.

BTW still rising in US, nearing 32.50

Being run for cash is a miserable existence that Aviva has condemned its EU and Asian units to.
Having worked for a business run for cash for many years it was liberating For the business to be spun out.

I am more convinced that Aviva needs to be broken up.
The growth units are really two, UK and Canada. However it is difficult to see where growth will come from in UK, Aviva has a large market share and a poor reputation. The UK is hardly short or financial companies that will compete hard.
I am surprised the Asia units are not growth and some of the EU companies have potential.
Looks like a home market bias for home based investors when we should be looking outward, Aviva is looking in.