Member Info for Jatw

Excellent volumes traded today, more than 3x usual volume.
Hope it continues through next week. Upgrades and positive comments should buoy up sentiment.....but there may be some Understandable profit taking.
However further Decent gains possible in the short term for short-medium term traders as well as long term holders.

The SP has been swung around by the £-$ exchange rate.....
Under 500p is excellent value....given the future prospects.

Ready to kick on from here.
Reiterates the positive drivers of this business....
BTW have you seen the price of puppies during lockdown....those pooches are going to need a lot of care in the future.

Will Pru bid?
A use for the first tranche of the Jackson sale

With this level of volatility, it seems it may be best to buy in Regular bite sized chunks.

We have to be careful what we wish for.....eg Verona is delisting from AIM and will be solely traded on NASDAQ. I know this is a different situation for a much smaller company....but I for one would not want to lose a London listing for HCM.
A company with ambition to be a global $20bn company should afford global premium listings.

Those are all positive......the market wants survivors and then winners.
I think the future s bright on a 3-5 year horizon for CVSG..what the market will make of the results On Thursday is a guess. They have been flagged as good.....but if the govt clamps down on vets (can’t see why given they are operating safely) then it will be a big downer.

Either trade and be a hero/loser or do nothing and watch for next time.....but no regrets either way.

For all the problems of the last year or so, you have to love this company.
It is doing good work that will benefit many thousands of patients.
It is one for the future and hence current global difficulties have limited effect.

I suspect CKHH will want to place 10-15% in a HK IPO - and HCM will raise further funds at the same time as long as their GA agreement permits (no restriction was mentioned so I assume they can). Market conditions are turning, but have been good for drug developers recently. They should get on with it before markets change.

Returned from the Vet......they have sorted out a way of working under Covid.....can’t see why they would be shut down again....plenty of demand.

Obv a bad start to the week, expect SP to be flat (maybe up vs market this week)

No contest today.....CLSN down 8%, sms up 1%.
SMS debt free
CLSN ex PE loaded with debt and future sales by PE.

There are negative stories running about smart meters (not SMS per se)....time to sit out until the trading update in FeB 21.

Does CH say how? Or his timescale?
(Sounds like a DCR post - is it?)

A lot must already be in the SP given the rise in the last 6months.
The trading update gave details that led to a price of 1270p.....so there could be an upward move towards that level.....but I would not expect more unless there are more positive statements.

My cats are getting their annual visit for the cat flu jab on Monday. The vet says they are working through a 3 month backlog so there is plenty of business to be done in the next few months. they will have worked through how to operate safely albeit maybe with increased costs But most of this should be passed on to clients.
The business seems to be operating with enhanced commerciality closing small units. I expect this will continue and that there will be practices available at lower prices for some growth to return in the medium term.

I see some upside from here, but perhaps only 10-15% over the next couple of years.

I doubt that stocktwits price too. Yahoo was showing a small down movement post market close.

I agree that surufatinib will be a first line treatment.....the big money has been in breast cancer and lung cancers...HCM should earn good money from it for many years.

..I think the problem for all companies is the ability of scientists to subdivide broad treatment categories into bio markers which means narrower approvals than in the past.
The continuous improvement in Outcomes of approved drugs means that trials have to beat new standards of care and run for longer. This should provide a competitive moat to offset the narrower labels.

BTW from what I could tell, the fruqintinb poster looked promising. The sanet ep data provided good disease control and observable responses in a good proportion of cases. Hopefully the approval will land soon as it has been with the Chinese authorities for a while already.

Or maybe not today.....But same expectations apply when they do emerge.

Thanks.....looking forward to a good read at 7am and maybe the SP going into three figures later in the day.

And today we have the acceptance for review of the second surufatinib NDA.

To respond (not answer) some of your questions about valuation amones:
We see big pharma takeouts of oncology companies at USD 3-6bn. These companies often only have one successful product, but it is a first line treatment and so have a high potential revenue. Imagine if Savolitinib were tagrisso?
Being Chinese may be a hindrance....although Beigene etc have got multi billion investments for US pharma.
Being part of CKHH has been a help (strong parent) but has led to a DIY and junior partner approach. If HCM were created 10 years ago rather than 20, they might go for a mega IPO and raise billions rather than 100m per funding round.

HCM is what it is - a self sufficient reasonably well funded organisations with a deep pipeline which requires deep pockets to develop it globally. It will get there, but it is more of a fast tortoise than a hare.

I continue to hold and add. Although at 25% of my portfolio I should diversify.

Seems to me that Proleukin renewal is key to any SP growth.....per their presentation this would result in exceeding the top end of 10% EBITDA growth.
Roll on news from Iovance.

I doubt it is feasible for an individual to have the knowledge or resources to assess future profitability so I rely on the analysts to produce a sum of the parts estimate.
The company website references research from Edison and Trinity Delta.....I assume this is paid for by the company for it to be made available. Tracking changes in their results /models is the best way to understand how the business may develop.

Both these have a value that is higher than the current market value....but there are huge assumptions around all parts of HCM except its commercial division.
The other reference point is that GA targets companies with high revenue growth.

Without major market moves or a takeover, I expect the SP to grow as the pipeline matures.
I could see 600p next year and 700p in 2022 as achievable, but the market tends to anticipate growth and may overshoot....we may be here at present and there could be a drop back under 500p. If that happens in the absence of adverse news it is a buying opportunity.

Add in the NASDAQ listing.....there will be fund raising and the pricing is at the whim of that market.
The underwriters will seek a 10-15% buffer so we could anticipate a fall when the ADS listing is announced.
I would not buy back in until the US listing is done and dusted.

Anyone buying ahead of the results?
The results should be decent following the trading update.