Member Info for Jatw

AIA published H1 results today. Some data points to compare (Pru Asia only)

NBP aia -37%, Pru -45%
Operating profit AIA +5%, Pru +14%
Solvency ratio AIA 328, Pru 308.

Not much to choose between them.

Have to say that today’s drop looks significantly over done.
Div 6p.
FTSE down 1%
Should not add up to 7% fall

JNJ is paying 6.5bn cash for Momenta. A company with 12m pa sales in a generic drug.
One development in PII and one in PI. JNJ is paying 69%premium on a SP that has risen 67% already this year.
Two thoughts:
Momenta might be targeting higher value sectors/ has better technology than JNJ.
HCM seems much less risky with a broader product range and further advanced.

V volatile day.....out of nowhere it just leapt 5%

I would expect the DT Questor column to bring in a decent number of new investors. 700-730 is a good range for them to start in and they should do well if the Iovance story is confirmed.....it was trailed in a clinigen RNS earlier this year.
This company needs to get some positive feedback going.

Agreed....more like 10% yield.
If the market believes the payout is secure, then one might think that the yield should be a lot less and the SP much higher.
If mgmt achieves their 2200m capital target, that might be when the market believes.
2 years to climb back to 250. Plus 36p in dividends....sounds like a high value investment to me.

Turns out the market decided there was nothing to worry about and bought back in.
Nearly all of fridays losses have been reversed.
ADS of $32.75 is 500p to buy.

While the current price has recovered somewhat it is still historically low (as are a number of other finance stocks). Seems like the market is still wary of financial stocks because of the potential for more pandemic related losses.
A big assumption is that we avoid a big market fall, but if we do then MNG is a bargain. If these fears recede, MNG and others are likely to rise rapidly, if we learn to live with the risks then a more gradual rise can be expected.

HCM meets the requirements to remain listed in the US. Unlike some of the delisters.

I suspect the convulsions in the ADS price are more driven by profit taking. All it needs is one of the funds to decide to bank their profits and sell up....some will be tempted to top slice after a 30% gain in a few weeks. We don’t know how much hot money has flowed in following GA....and is now moving on.

Sorry for using the jargon amones.
PIPE is the description of the General Atlantic transaction. The acronym is (I think) Public Investment by Private Equity.
I was suggesting that another private equity house may want to join the party.

I feel I have predicted 20 of the last 4 corrections.

The US indices are dominated by some very large tech companies whose empires seem to know no bounds....they seem to just get bigger.....I think I have read that most of the US market By number of stocks is in bear territory....
At the moment there just seems to be endless money for tech. Who would have thought Tesla would be the most valuable automotive company around. So yes there will be a correction, maybe not tomorrow or for some time into the future, but when it comes a lot of positions will be unwound by margin calls and there will be a big fall. It is not different this time, just a different time.

To those who don’t post regularly and those that lurk and do not post
Your views are very welcome too..the company provides a lot of information most of which is well beyond my knowledge, but I do know there is a wisdom in A crowd and if we share what we know and what we are thinking about we can make better decisions. Comments about industry developments, competitor progress are all valuable.

It has been refreshing to hear from more contributors recently and look forward to hearing more of your thinking.

Cheerleader We are glad you do this unpaid role...always brighten up the day with more fabulous news.

Keep it up.

I will jump in in case the cheerleader in chief is on holiday.
I am very happy with the measured approach exhibited by contributors to this board. This is a serious company doing serious things and can do without the hysterical reactions seen on other sites. I don’t think anyone here is chasing a 100% gain in a few months.....15-20% pa is more than enough return.

I think the past SP was driven by hope and by speculation which drove it to an unsustainable high. When savour was stopped (incorrectly it seems) that led to a loss of confidence and After falling by 50% to a more reasonable valuation, the progress in the pipeline is now being reflected in new valuations and an uptick in expectations.
I think the market has taken advantage of some poor fund raising decisions and that depressed sentiment towards the company. That and Trumps anti China rhetoric has not helped.
But markets look forward and they see a near fully funded company with expected positive cash flows coming soon and they do not want to miss out.....the old maxim of travelling in hope applies as does buy the rumour and sell the fact
I think it is on a good run which may continue but may also face some correction in the next year or two if delivery is slower than expected (Savo has been a slow burner but may be about to make progress on several fronts). Recent news has been positive and has built momentum which is reinforcing for some traders so we are in a positive rather than a negative feedback loop at present.

There do not appear to be any hints of other transactions and I am not expecting a major deal, but one of these events could happen:
Surufatinib is licensed ex China and HCM gets a mega upfront payment
CKHH trades its stake and creates a takeover (this is one exit route for CKHH possibly accepting a stake in an enlarged entity, part cash part shares). A variant is someone like AZ or GSK really likes the look of the pipeline and makes an offer that can’t be refused.
There is a second PIPE transaction at a higher price.

Let’s get back to 80p first...
A lot has happened since these were worth 150p. They have needed a lot of new capital and the shares have been diluted.
There is a valuable business here. It will take a lot longer To realise the value or we may have to settle for a takeover in the 100-120 range. What is clear is that the regulatory environment is more stable and the company is back on an even keel...generating capital which will allow it to grow again. The future is a lot brighter.

The US market is driving this higher daily, it has been touching $34 today....
GA sitting on a 36% gain plus a further 12% on the warrant
CK must be tempted, but a straight sale to PE looks the way to go....no fees, little discount....but I think they will want a HK listing soon that CKHH May sell into to provide a deeper float. May get away with a low discount at this rate.
Timing CKHH will need to pay quite a hefty dividend in May next year, so I would pencil in March post results.

Takes a while for ratings agencies to change their tune. I am sure they would have highlighted Jackson guarantees to customers as a potential negative, now they are saying this is a less diverse and hence more vulnerable business. I am sure that once Jackson pays down its group debt and Pru realises a few $bn in the first sale, they will strike a different tone.

Standard chartered must be in a similar situation with HQ in London but the business regulated in Asia.

The headwinds for asset managers are real and quite strong....but MNG is more than an asset manager, it is also an asset gatherer across a wide range of wrappers and is moving into being a platform provider.
The distributors and platforms have generally not suffered as much as the insurers and asset managers, I suppose their business is generally stickier in that they may advise clients to move providers but they generally retain the business in their platform. Ascentric moves MNG more in this direction. Prufund in Europe allows more volume through the machine so should offset cost reductions. Hence the focus on growth as a story....it is necessary of they will go backwards quite quickly.

The market appears to be looking more favourably on financials....but that could change with a new lockdown.
Generally the insurers have not been too badly affected....you have to wonder who does own the debt in the retail empires that have been collapsing? As is does not seem to be the insurers themselves. The asset managers have been impacted by lower AUM and resultant income reductions.
In that light MNG is a mix of the two.....insured assets doing well, institutional seemingly winning and retail asset management relatively weak.

Goo to see the initial market reaction is positive pushing the SP over 180 for a pandemic high, although still along way from the 250 earlier in the year.

Management is pushing MNG as a growth story....some of that may start to appear in H2.
MNG looks like a survivor and possibly a future winner. It will be able to partake in any consolidation needed post pandemic from a position of relative strength.

Being a buy and hold type, I don’t often think about selling....but I am beginning to think there will be a period of sideways/drift down coming.
What are you traders thinking?