Member Info for Jatw

And an updateD company presentation.....
Not sure there was much change....but GA made the investors slide.

Unless there is a blockbuster trading update coming.

AstraZeneca PLC AZN and partner Merck MRK announced that the European Commission has approved their PARP inhibitor Lynparza for the treatment of patients with germline BRCA-mutated (gBRCAm) metastatic pancreatic cancer.

The market has not reacted to this news, so I assume that gBRCAm is not A large part of the target market for surufatinib or surufatinib has a greater effect.....or does it just point the way to a new combination for specific patients.....

I have not heard this mentioned on any call or question....and I don’t know enough about these designations to be able to interpret them.....

Any views? Or do we try to ask CH

I think that is the idea with a warrant - some profit baked in.....and let’s face it we don’t mind too much if the company has underpinned its funding needs. The alternative is a10-20% off sale in the future..if they get 100m with a 20% gain we are all happy.

The highs of 590p and $42 are some way off. When achieved This time they will be supported by more than hopes and dreams. (My guess would be sometime in 2022)

3 weeks to HY results and another 2 for the analysts to update their valuations......this should run a bit higher to mid August and the news flow will start again with approval for surufatinib in China and savolitinib progress coming through.

Closing Just shy of $29 up 1.4% Today with the NASDAQ down 0.9%. A strong showing.
Equivalent to 462p.

At the current exchange rate 500p Per share is equivalent to $31.35 per ADS

The changes in major holdings announced today are mostly a change in ultimate ownership of the investment manager with a small reduction. Nothing of note.

Who would want to merge with or takeover Aviva?
Certainly not one of their listed peers.

The flavour of recent years has been to dismantle international insurance and investment groups. In part this is because the expected capital dividend arising from diversification has been replaced by increased local capital requirements. The financial risks are diversified but just seem to create two reasons to hold more capital.
The Aviva model appears out of date and it may be better to create national Insurance or investment champions by merging with other top 4 operators in markets where that is possible and then selling improved holdings to the market before distributing the proceeds from listings to shareholders.

Aviva trades on such a low multiple, it seems likely that deconstructing the group to local market bidders will create value.

Weak buy until the CEO and Board set a new course, then likely a stronger buy.

Distribution rather than manufacturing is where the margin is for much of this business.
A machine costing 125k can be set up and used by many manufacturers to produce hand gel...getting orders then making some margin is the difficult part....I can’t imagine the UK supermarket is allowing much margin but as part of growing the relationship and then stocking more dental products it might just work.

The factory size is a bit of a red herring unless you can make significant margins on the extra production.

A significant re rating is taking place.
Once the analyst upgrades are in following HY results and modelling recent pipeline developments most notably the accelerated US filing processes, I expect these will trade above 500p and above $30 for the ADS.
Thereafter the upward pressure may abate....but an excellent prospect of capital gains over the next 3 years.

My view of the current price
Buy below 13
Add below 14
Above 14 hold or reduce

I suspect the rate of revenue loss has declined but it will be 20-25m down on what was expected for the full year. This is not disastrous and may be recovered in 20/21. The SP may rise in relief but will probably stay in its 12-15 range for the next year, with the peaks and troughs higher.

A quality organisation.... just needs more stability in its operating environment.

Seaking/Denby there should be a FY trading update in the next fortnight.
The last update was in April and suggested some £14-16M revenue shortfall.
They will have plenty of cash having recently raised 100m.
What are you looking for to consider this over valued or indeed undervalued at present?

This will follow the lead from the HSI tomorrow. 370 arrested is not a great starting point

On the one hand this seems to be an honourable gesture, they suggest profitability is as expected and the cash position better than expected even after returning the grant.
On the other, they were presumably entitled to the grant. So why not keep it unless they have been investigated and told action will be taken unless it is returned.

Confused?

But atleast there appears to be a positive underlying trading position.

CrystalBallBroke, I don’t know when you invested in Quantum Pharma, but you need to give up the bitterness towards Clinigen and look forwards. Q traded at 160p in 2015, in 2016 it traded under 40p and was about 50p when Clinigen made its approach and ultimately offered 82p, 37p in cash and equivalent of 45p in cash.....even if this was 20% overvalued the offer was atleast 73p per share and the shareholding gave you and others a stake in a larger business that was expected to grow. That the SP did not continue upwards is unfortunate, but it is still a double your money takeover from the lows of 2016 or a loss of 50% if you bought in at 160p. Either way it is historic and not relevant today.

If you believe the current BOD are charlatans then you should be selling or shorting this share.
Clearly you are still invested to get your perceived losses back so you think the prospects of this are good. Why not express what you think of the current groups strategy and business prospects? That will help us all who hold now and don’t care about the past.

No one wants to sell today. Hence there is little spread.

Still a buy for me....for the longer term.
Traders may want to sell and hope to buy back lower but they risk missing the full rerating

Make that very pleased.......it has added another $1 in the last 2 hours.
GA now 12% up.

Momentum like this is rare.....I can see $30 and £5 rapidly approaching and to be justified by analyst valuation updates following HY figures.

It is amazing what a little confidence and some momentum will do.
GA sitting on 8% gain after 3 sessions.
I must say that the AIM pricing leaves a lot to be desired.....HCM has been at the top of the leaderboard even when there has been no real change, just a late spread increase and opening with a wider spread.
Current US price equates to 437p with only a small 1-2p spread.....but this will open at 410 -440 tomorrow. Only worth trading in US hours....a move to the FT250 would help shareholders.

The story attempted to justify the headline but the facts were very selective.
Yes there have been decreases in the expected growth rate, but that is hardly surprising as yields have fallen consistently over the last decade and more. They compared the return with a full equity benchmark from the lowest point of that benchmark (March 09). prufunds are multiple assets investments and would not match a higher risk equity benchmark.
There was no attempt to compare the unit adjustments with actual fund falls, in comparable funds. The NEST multi asset funds were down 16.9% at the end of March per the pensions policy institute paper on the effect of Covid. That puts the heaviest PruFund adjustment in perspective.
Then there were the generic smears about with profits and past failings.
I could go on....I thought the journalism was not up to scratch.
There are valid criticisms of PruFund to be made but this article did not really stand up to scrutiny or the headline.

The virus seems to have knocked the stuffing out of the HK uprising.
No riots in in response to the new security laws....

Things are beginning to look up.